NFL Week 17 Survival Pool Strategy: Patriots, Lions and 3 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate balance between playing it safe and planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can impact the outlook for the rest of the season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 17:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
Steelers Over Browns (Pick %: 17% Spread: -3)
Even with this being a classic AFC North showdown with the Steelers playing to secure a playoff spot, Pittsburgh should win. The Steelers will also be without DK Metcalf, but the Browns will be without one of their star players, Quinshon Judkins. Aaron Rodgers has been playing his best football recently, and the Steelers just reeled off their third straight win against the Lions. I like the Steelers to win and cover the modest -3 spread in Week 17.
Patriots Over Jets (Pick %: 9% Spread: -13.5)
The Patriots are one of two double-digit favorites this week and are the lock of the week. However, it’s unlikely many have them left at this point of the year. For those who do, Week 17 is the last week to use the Patriots, as Week 18 is likely to be a meaningless game for them. The Jets are onto their third-string quarterback, and they were held to just six points and surrendered six sacks to the Saints. This is the type of game you save your best teams for. Now is the time to capitalize.
Under The Radar Picks
Jaguars Over Colts (Pick %: 7% Spread: -6.5)
There’s no team hotter right now in the NFL than the Jaguars. They’re on a six-game win streak and have won every game by a margin of nearly 19 points. They’re facing a Colts team that has lost five straight games and just gave up a season-high 48 points to the 49ers. Jacksonville just defeated the Broncos, who were on an 11-game win streak, and hung 34 points on them. Indianapolis is also on a short week, with Jacksonville still playing for a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC. There are many other teams favored by more than a touchdown this week, so the Jaguars at -6.5 may sneak under the radar.
Lions Over Vikings (Pick %: 3% Spread: -7.5)
The Lions will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss against the Vikings. That being said, that’s the exact spot I would bet on a Dan Campbell-led team. The Lions’ defense has struggled lately, but it will bounce back against quarterback Max Brosmer. The rookie, making his second career NFL start, threw four interceptions in his debut in Week 13. Minnesota is overvalued after three straight close wins against bad NFC East teams. It simply doesn’t have the firepower to go toe to toe with Detroit. Many have likely already used the Lions, but those who haven’t have a near lock of a pick at a fraction of the selection rate.
One Risky Pick
Bengals Over Cardinals (Pick %: 40% Spread: -7)
The Bengals are by far the most selected team in Week 17. I don’t necessarily think they’re a bad selection, but I’d be lying if I didn’t believe there was some risk involved in selecting them. What version of the Bengals will we get? The team that just hung 45 points on the Dolphins last week or the team that laid a goose egg against the Ravens in Week 15. The Cardinals have lost seven straight games, but lost by three points each against the Jaguars and Buccaneers. The Jaguars are a team on this list and have won six consecutive games. With how much the Bengals have struggled defensively, don't be surprised if this game is much closer than the spread indicates.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.