NFL Week 18 Survival Pool Strategy: Jaguars, Broncos and 3 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate balance between playing it safe and planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can impact the outlook for the rest of the season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 18:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
Jaguars Over Titans (Pick %: 36% Spread: -12.5)
The Jaguars have a lot to play for in Week 18. A win over the Titans clinches the AFC South title and a top-three seed in the AFC. Jacksonville can also still earn the No. 1 seed with some outside help. The Jaguars are the hottest team in the NFL at the moment, as they’re winners of their last seven. They’re averaging nearly 33 points per game. The Titans have been playing much better recently, but they’re 3-13 for a reason. The last time these two teams played in Week 13, it was the Jaguars who defeated the Titans, 25-3. I expect a somewhat closer game, but still expect the Jaguars to win convincingly in Week 18.
Bengals Over Browns (Pick %: 14% Spread: -7.5)
Two teams with nothing to play for may not appear to be a game to target, but the Bengals’ offense has been clicking ever since losing 24-0 to the Ravens in Week 15. Cincinnati is averaging 41 points, while giving up an average of 17.5 points over its last two games. The Browns, on the other hand, are averaging 12 points per game over their previous three. They somehow beat the Steelers while scoring just 13 points, but that won’t be enough to beat the Bengals in Week 18. Cleveland will likely be more focused on getting Myles Garrett the sack record than winning, which makes me want to pick the Bengals.
Under The Radar Picks
Bills Over Jets (Pick %: 8% Spread: -7.5)
In any other week, the Bills would be the lock of the week. Take Week 2, for example, where the Bills beat the Jets 30-10. However, the Bills will likely be resting key starters in this Week 18 matchup. Sean McDermott has not explicitly said whether he will bench starters, but all signs point to that happening. Josh Allen is good to go, although he's banged up, and the Bills' seeding can only rise to No. 5 with a win and a Texans loss. Mitchell Trubisky, who is very accustomed to Joe Brady’s offense, will likely take over for Allen, and he is very experienced in this offense. The Jets have lost four consecutive games, all by at least 23 points. They’re fully committed to the tank, with Brady Cook being named the starter in their season finale. Cook has thrown one touchdown and seven interceptions in four appearances this season.
Broncos Over Chargers (Pick %: 1% Spread: -12.5)
Contrary to the Bills, the Broncos have a lot to play for in Week 18. They’re a win away from securing the top seed in the AFC. This would otherwise be a challenging game, but the Chargers have already announced that Justin Herbert will sit out as he works to get healthy for a playoff run. With an AFC West title out of reach, Jim Harbaugh has made it clear that he’s prioritizing his team’s health over a “better” matchup in the playoffs. The Broncos play at home, where they’re 7-1 this season. Trey Lance will start in place of Herbert and faces one of the top defensive units in the NFL. Denver should lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC this week.
One Risky Pick
Eagles Over Commanders (Pick %: 9% Spread: -3.5)
The Eagles are a trap pick in Week 18. They locked up the NFC East title by defeating the Commanders in Week 16. However, they mathematically have no shot at earning the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. The Eagles have a shot at the No. 2 seed, but need outside help from several other teams. It’s unlikely, and Nick Sirianni has already announced that several key starters will sit or be limited. The Commanders have nothing to play for either, but they have been more competitive as of late, taking the Broncos to overtime in Week 13 and playing the Cowboys close this past week. The Eagles could easily still win this game with Tanner McKee, who’s one of the better backup QBs in the NFL. However, there is a ton of uncertainty, making the Eagles the team to avoid in Week 18.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.