2026 Fantasy Baseball SP Rankings: Hunter Greene vs. Cole Ragans Draft Value

Hunter Greene and Cole Ragans bring ace-level strikeout upside to the SP2 range for 2026 fantasy baseball—but both come with durability red flags.

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene (21) reacts on the mound after giving up his third home run of the game in the third inning of the MLB National League Wild Card Game 1 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025. The Dodgers won game 1 of the series, 10-5. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The SP11–SP12 range in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts is where league-winning upside meets significant workload risk, highlighted by electric arms like Hunter Greene and Cole Ragans. Both have the strikeout dominance and ratio potential of true aces, but durability concerns will ultimately determine whether they return SP1 value.

SP11 – Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds (NFBC ADP – 47)

Greene has arrived as a foundation ace arm, except for his ability to be on the field for 30 starts. Over the past two years, he went 16-9 over 45 games, with a 2.76 ERA, 0.984 WHIP, and 301 strikeouts over 258.0 innings. Last season, his first-pitch strike rate (68.6%) reached elite status, leading to batters hitting .192 against him.

After a great start to 2025 (4-3 with a 2.72 ERA, 0.972 WHIP, and 73 strikeouts over 59.2 innings), Greene landed on the injured list for 70 days with a groin issue. He had similar success over his last eight games (3-1 with a 2.81 ERA, 0.896 WHIP, and 59 strikeouts over 48.0 innings).

His average fastball (99.4 mph) was one of his best in the game, which he threw 53.6% of the time. Batters struggled to hit his four-seamer (.207 BAA) and slider (.171 BAA) while battling his split-finger pitch (.294 BAA).

Hunter Greene 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: This draft season, Greene has been treated as a backend SP1 despite never pitching over 150.1 innings in his career. Home runs (1.3 per nine) crept back into his equation last year while finishing with the best command of his career (2.2 walks per nine – 3.3 in his career). I thought Greene was a great deal last season, but he paid about 60 cents on the dollar. His reward should outweigh his risk in 2026, especially if he slides in drafts. Possible league winner skill set if he can make 30 starts.

SP12 – Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (NFBC ADP – 49)

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Cole Ragans (55) delivers a pitch against the Seattle Mariners during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

In 2024, Ragans allowed three runs or fewer in 15 of his first 17 starts, leading to a 3.03 ERA, 1.153 WHIP, and 120 strikeouts over 98.0 innings. He gave up 14 runs, 18 baserunners, and one home run over eight innings on his two down days.

His arm regressed over his next 11 games (4.12 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, and eight home runs over 63.1 innings with 77 strikeouts). Ragans pitched well in September (1.08 ERA over 25.0 innings with 26 strikeouts).

Unfortunately, the excitement of Ragans lasted only four starts (1-0 with a 2.28 ERA, 0.930 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts over 23.2 innings) last season. His left arm lost value in four of his next five games (17 runs, 33 baserunners, and three home runs over 22.0 innings with 38 strikeouts), leading to a trip to the injured list (left rotator cuff strain) for the next four months, except for one start (five runs, eight baserunners, and four strikeouts over three innings). The Royals had him back on the mound for three more starts at the end of September (2.77 ERA, 0.769 WHIP, and 22 strikeouts over 13.0 innings).

His average fastball (95.7 mph) aligned with 2024. Ragans had success with four pitches (four-seam – .205 BAA, changeup – .191 BAA, slider – .225 BAA, and curveball – .200 BAA). He also threw a failing show-me cutter (.462 BAA).

Cole Ragans 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: After leading the American League in strikeouts per nine innings (10.8) in 2024, Ragans upped his strikeout rate (14.3) last year over short innings (61.2). His WHIP (1.184) in 2025 suggested he should have had a better outcome in ERA. Tempting arm, but two TJ surgeries and a left shoulder issue make him a risky investment as a frontline fantasy starter. A ceiling of a sub-3.00 ERA with impact strikeouts, paired with the potential of another lost season. I’ll go with your ace, not mine.

Should You Draft Hunter Greene or Cole Ragans in 2026 Fantasy Baseball?

Greene’s improving command and elite fastball give him a realistic path to a breakout 30-start season that could smash his ADP, while Ragans offers comparable strikeout upside with far more long-term health risk. In this tier, draft strategy comes down to your tolerance for volatility versus your need for a potential difference-maker atop your rotation. Greene should outperform Ragans by a fair margin and is the logical choice.