2026 Fantasy Baseball SP Rankings: Nick Pivetta vs. Framber Valdez vs. Nolan McLean

The 2026 fantasy baseball pitching pool is loaded with mid-round arms who can swing leagues, and Nick Pivetta, Framber Valdez, and Nolan McLean each bring a very different path to profit at their NFBC ADPs. Whether you’re chasing Pivetta’s breakout, betting on a Valdez rebound, or projecting McLean’s next leap, understanding their risk-reward profiles is critical on draft day.

SP24 – Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres (NFBC ADP – 87)

For the fantasy teams tailing Pivetta over the past few seasons, he finally arrived in all pitching categories in 2025 after signing with the Padres. He set a career-best in ERA (2.87) despite never posting an ERA under 4.00 in his previous eight years in the majors.

His WHIP was trending higher in 2023 (1.121) and 2024 (1.126), suggesting a better overall pitcher. He moved his WHIP to an elite area in 2025 (0.985) even with a slight uptick in walks (2.5 per nine) and a lower strikeout rate (9.4 – 10.6 in 2024).

Pivetta allowed two runs or fewer in 20 of his 31 starts, highlighted by 13 coming over a 14-start stretch (6-3 with a1.85 ERA, 0.824 WHIP, and 89 strikeouts over 87.1 innings). His only rough patch came over his first four starts in June (15 runs, 28 baserunners, six home runs, and 20 strikeouts over 21.2 innings). Pitching in Petco Park served him well (8-1 with a 2.36 ERA, 0.864 WHIP, and 113 strikeouts over 103.0 innings).

His average fastball (93.9 MPH) was a three-year low, but down slightly. Over the past two seasons, Pivetta added a cutter (.204 BAA). San Diego had him throw fewer sliders (.187 BAA), leading to an increase in his curveball usage (.218 BAA). Batters also struggled to hit his four-seamer (.184 BAA) despite allowing 15 home runs.

Nick Pivetta 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Pivetta ranked 11th in FPGscore (5.27) last season, and his rising profile will be challenging to ignore this year based on his favorable pricing. I don’t see a reason to fade him other than an early 2024 elbow issue (34 days on the injured list). He pitches in a better ballpark, and command has become his friend over the past two seasons. I wish this game of fantasy baseball were that easy. Let’s go with a helpful ERA in the 3.25 area with plenty of help in strikeouts and a favorable WHIP.

SP25 – Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers (NFBC ADP – 96)

Detroit Tigers pitcher Framber Valdez practices during spring training at TigerTown in Lakeland, Fla. on Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Valdez entered free agency this season after a down year. His ERA (3.66) and WHIP (1.245) were six-year highs. He had some regression in his command (3.2 walks per nine). Over the past five seasons, Valdez went 68-41 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.173 WHIP, and 875 strikeouts over 902.1 innings.

His arsenal has less value against lefties (.257 over 136 at-bats with five home runs). He lost his way on the road (3-7 with a 5.20 ERA, 1.451 WHIP, and 62 strikeouts over 71.0 innings), while maintaining ace stats in Houston (10-4 with 2.75 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, and 125 strikeouts over 121.0 innings). Valdez entered August with a 2.62 ERA and two double-digit strikeout games (10 and 12) in July. He lost seven of his final 10 starts due to a sharp decline in his pitches (39 runs, 90 baserunners, and seven home runs over 58.0 innings with 46 strikeouts).

His average fastball (95.4 mph) remained at the top of his career range. All of his secondary pitches were assets (curveball – .193 BAA, changeup – .220 BAA, and his show-me slider – .160 BAA). His sinker (.277 BAA) was better than in 2024 (.290 BAA) and 2023 (.279 BAA). Valdez continues to be a high-volume groundball pitcher (58.6% - 61.8% in his career).

Framber Valdez 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: The fade by Valdez down the stretch appears to be an outlier, either due to lost confidence or a breakdown in his mechanics. Over the past two years, he ranked 35th (2025 – 0.93) and 17th (2024 – 3.91) in FPGscore. I see a competitive arm whose draft value may be dictated by his new team. Valdez falls into my neutral category in 2026.

SP26 – Nolan McLean, New York Mets (NFBC ADP – 96)

New York Mets pitcher Nolan McLean (26) throws a pitch during the fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Mets drafted McLean in the third round of the 2023 June MLB Draft after working in relief for three seasons at Oklahoma State (4.55 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 76 strikeouts, and 11 saves over 57.1 innings). His low usage was tied to him playing in the field (.270/122/36/96/7 over 503 at-bats). Unfortunately, he struck out 34.7% of the time.

He made it to the minors with a two-pitch arsenal (four-seamer and slider). McLean showed growth in his pitching in 2025 between AA and AAA (8-5 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, and 127 strikeouts over 113.2 innings). His strikeout rate (10.1) graded well, but he walked 4.0 batters per nine innings.

The Mets called him up in mid-August, leading to the best pitching of his career. McLean went 5-1 over eight starts with a 2.06 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, and 57 strikeouts over 48.0 innings. He showed improved command (3.0 walks per nine), resulting in a bump in his strikeout rate (10.7).

His average fastball (95.7 mph) has plus velocity. McLean threw his slider (.341 BAA) as his top usage pitch (34.2%). He mixed in a sinker (.193 BAA), curveball (.074 BAA), four-seamer (.154 BAA), and changeup (.143 BAA).

Nolan McLean 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: McLean comes over a 161.2-inning pitch season, suggesting he should be ready to make 30 starts for New York in 2026. The Mets' young ace added depth to his offers while showing growth in his command in the majors. This draft season, McLean will be treated as borderline SP2/SP3, depending on league size. His resume of success is short, with command hurdles to clear before becoming a trusted fantasy ace. The low mileage on his arm is a plus. McLean falls in a range between a breakout arm and a bust season.

Nick Pivetta vs. Framber Valdez vs. Nolan McLean

Pivetta’s transformation in San Diego looks skill-driven, making him one of the safest ratio stabilizers in this range if the command gains hold. Valdez offers volume and groundball security with team context determining his ceiling, while McLean’s electric arsenal and growing workload give him the widest gap between breakout star and draft-day trap. Pivetta is the safest option of these three though if you're swinging for upside, McLean could be the pick.