2026 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings: Emmet Sheehan vs. Nick Lodolo

Emmett Sheehan’s post–Tommy John surge and Nick Lodolo’s pricey ADP create one of the most important mid-round starting pitcher decisions in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts.

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Emmet Sheehan (80) throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies in the seventh inning during game two of the NLDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Citizens Bank Park. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Post-hype arms and injury returnees always shape fantasy baseball draft season, and Emmett Sheehan and Nick Lodolo sit right in the SP3/SP4 range where leagues are often won or lost. With NFBC ADPs inside the top 130, understanding their workload outlook, pitch mix trends, and true ceiling versus cost is critical before you click draft.

SP33 – Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers (NFBC ADP – 121)

Sheehan elected to have a hybrid TJ surgery in 2024 (May) that was paired with an internal brace. Based on the pitchers I’ve seen so far, he had the most success after returning to a minor league mound a year later.

Between his six low-inning starts in the minors and 15 appearances with the Dodgers, Sheehan went 7-4 with a 3.10 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, and 125 strikeouts over 93.0 innings. He averaged 4.4 innings per start while throwing more than 61 pitches in only four games (85, 82, 75, and 85).

Over his final nine appearances with Los Angeles, Sheehan went 4-1 with a 2.42 ERA, 0.876 WHIP, and 63 strikeouts over 48.1 innings. Despite his success, his arsenal was less effective on the road (3-2, 4.25 ERA, 1.247 WHIP, 35 strikeouts over 29.2 innings).

His average fastball came in at 95.7 mph. Sheehan added a low-volume curveball while upping the usage of his slider (.186 BAA) at the expense of his changeup (.167 BAA) and four-seamer (.226 BAA).

Sheehan spent part of four seasons in the minors, leading to a 15-5 record with a 3.08 ERA, 1.004 WHIP, and 278 strikeouts over 166.1 innings.

Emmett Sheehan 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Sheehan isn’t a lock to pitch every fifth day in 2026. Los Angeles had six viable starting arms, and they’ve stated that Roki Sasaki will be in their rotation this year. Both pitchers have a low ceiling of innings this year for different reasons. The Dodgers should push Sheehan to about 140.0 innings this year. The progression in his arm is enticing, putting him on a path to win 10+ games with a sub-3.00 ERA, a favorable WHIP, and over 150 strikeouts.

SP34 – Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds (NFBC ADP – 129)

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo (40) comes in relief in the fourth inning of the MLB National League Wild Card Game 2 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025. The Reds were eliminated from the postseason with an 8-4 loss to the reining World Series Champions La Dodgers. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Lodolo had the healthiest season of his career in 2025, but he still missed 20 games in August with a finger blister on his pitching hand. Despite his progression in innings pitched (156.2), Lodolo averaged only 5.4 innings per start.

His first-pitch start rate (67.7%) moved into an elite range, leading to his lowest career strikeout rate (1.8). On the downside, he posted a lower strikeout rate (9.0), when better command tends to lead to more whiffs. Lodolo also battled home runs (1.3 per nine).

His pitches had less value against left-handed batters (.297 BAA with 17 runs, three home runs, and five steals over 128 at-bats). He had more struggles at home (4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, and 74 strikeouts over 70.1 innings). Lodolo had an ERA over 4.00 in May (4.01), June (4.68), August (5.68), and September (4.03).

He upped the usage of his changeup (.197 BAA), giving him a balance of four foundation pitches. Lodolo throws a slider (.190 BAA) as top pitch. His four-seamer (.236 BAA) was an edge while batters banged around his sinker (.303 BAA).

Nick Lodolo 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: The Lodolo ceiling seems high, but he can help fantasy teams when injured. Over his first 76 games with the Reds, his strikeout rate (10.0) and walk rate (2.6) bring shine to his name, but Lodolo has a career 4.06 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, and 456 strikeouts over 409.2 innings.

I view him as overpriced for his 2026 ADP. Last year, only 28 starting pitchers graded higher than him in FPGscore (0.26), so minimal growth this year will make him attractive to some team structures. He must pitch deeper in games while pushing his inning total closer to 180. Not my dance, so I leave that choice to you.

Should You Draft Emmet Sheehan or Nick Lodolo?

Sheehan offers the profile fantasy managers should chase at this price point—a rising arm in an elite Dodgers ecosystem with ratios and strikeout upside if the innings climb toward 140. Lodolo still flashes the skills that once made him a breakout candidate, but unless the volume and home-run issues take a meaningful step forward, his 2026 cost bakes in more risk than reward. Sheehan is the pick.