2026 Fantasy Football Projections (Non-PPR, Standard Formats): QB, RB, WR, TE Breakdowns
Our Fantasy Sports On SI Projections have gone live as of today, July 23. Stay tuned for Half-PPR and PPR Projections. Today, we see our Standard League Projections, positionally broken down.
There is an importance to be emphasized in what these are — projections. They are not rankings. There is a fine line between the two.
Rankings will be based on the relative value of that player. For example: Malik Nabers and Zach Charbonnet fall below our projections due to their expected time spent on the IR. However, their rankings will trend much higher based on the weekly output they provide when they are back healthy again.
Rankings will also measure upside. How good can a player be? How much variance is in their situation? Ashton Jeanty, for example, has huge upside based on the fact that the Raiders can only seemingly improve with their new head coach. Meanwhile, Kyren Williams may be a lot more limited in upside; a player on a crowded depth chart with a growing threat via Blake Corum.
Standard-League Quarterback Projections
Josh Allen will be near-impossible to overtake in 2026 fantasy football. We are dealing with a quarterback who expects to command over 20% of this rushing offense. The Bills are the NFL top-rated offense entering the season. As seen above, his yardage and touchdown projections per game are for passing and rushing combined. It goes for nearly 270 total yards per game; the only quarterback projected to go over 250.
Jayden Daniels has the potential for a monster season. The third-year quarterback paced for over 20% of the Commanders' rushing yards in 2025. He saw similar pacing in his rookie season. That is where Daniels' value will be banking on. He projects about 215 passing yards per game. He is a risk-versus-reward centerpiece.
Much of the quarterback position will be apples and oranges. 0.7 fantasy points per game separate QB5-14. The position will be one to bet on upside sharply—our best candidates at value: Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence.
Standard-League Running Back Projections
Bijan Robinson leads the charge as our RB1. He is the only player to expect to exceed 120 rushing and receiving yards per game. We expect Robinson to have nearly 80% of this rushing offense, while Brian Robinson takes on 15-20% and the rest goes to quarterback play and end-arounds. Robinson anticipates an additional 18-20% of the receiving offense, trailing Drake London (30-35%) and Kyle Pitts (20-25%).
If Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy, he could be the RB1 in back-to-back seasons. Even with a slight decrease in volume, the 49ers are too good to let McCaffrey flop. We anticipate McCaffrey to have 62% of the rushing offense and 19% of the receiving offense. On the ground, Jordan James expects 15% and Kaelon Black, 10%.
Derrick Henry rises high in standard formats, but he will falter in PPR. The Ravens hope to return as a top-5 offense in the NFL, and run-heavy in that nature. He will likely not exceed 5% of the receiving offense.
Jeremiyah Love, we have consensus below. He has an array of competition in that backfield. Love projects 55-60% of the rushing offense, with about 25% to Tyler Allgeier and the crumbs going to James Conner and Trey Benson. The Cardinals may be the NFL's only offense to use four running backs and make multiple rushing attempts per game.
Standard-League Wide Receiver Projections
Good luck in beating Puka Nacua. The wide receiver had nearly 40% of the Rams' 2025 receiving offense. He projects roughly around 36% for this upcoming season. A season that gave Davante Adams 14 touchdowns is now gone, and the likelihood of that repeating is rather low. Nacua should be able to hit, or even exceed, that mark in his own 2026 total touchdowns; Nacua even projects to have 5% of the Rams' rushing offense.
Ja'Marr Chase caps off a two-person dominant force at the top of the wide receiver board. He averaged nearly 100 receiving yards per game when Joe Burrow was healthy a year ago. Chase expects to average right around 90 receiving yards per game in the year ahead.
The top 25 is relatively predictable at the wide receiver position. Upside must be chased, and the best options for that include: DeVonta Smith, Christian Watson, DJ Moore, and Emeka Egbuka. These are WR1's on promising offenses.
Standard-League Tight End Projections
It is no surprise that Trey McBride is back at TE1. He does expect an over-10% decrease from his 11.2 points per game2025 mark. Nonetheless, McBride ranges highly with a 30% target share, 62.7 yards per game, and an expectation of 8-10 touchdowns on the season. His dip is due to the added health of Marvin Harrison Jr. and the draft pick of Jeremiyah Love; 2 options to steal red-zone usage.
Dalton Kincaid is a risk-versus-reward item. He technically is listed behind Dawson Knox in current depth chart projections. However, he will certainly exceed Knox in usage. Kincaid projects the 2nd-highest target share on the Bills, behind DJ Moore. That number is about 19%, which is of a Bills offense expected to average 240-250 passing yards per game.
Harold Fannin Jr. is a higher-risk item. While he was the TE5 in 2025 fantasy football, a dip must be expected. Fannin Jr. plays for a new head coach with minimal credibility for the role. He will catch footballs from the NFL's worst quarterback room, which features Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson. The team has also drafted both KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, who will certainly demand target shares of 12-20%.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.