Avoid Breece Hall at His Third-Round ADP in 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts

Breece Hall’s third-round ADP may be too expensive for a Jets running back facing workload concerns, touchdown limitations, and growing competition for touches.

New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) rushes the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the first half at MetLife Stadium. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Breece Hall still carries name value as one of the league’s most talented running backs, but his fantasy ceiling no longer matches his current draft price. Between declining receiving usage, touchdown concerns, and an increasingly crowded backfield, Hall looks more like a risky investment than a league-winning pick in 2026.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

The pass-catching luster for Hall left the building in 2025 (36/350/1 on 48 targets) despite gaining 9.7 yards per catch with four plays resulting in 20 yards or more (two reached the 40-yard mark). In 2023, the Jets looked his way 95 times in the passing game, leading to 76 catches for 591 yards and four touchdowns. 

Hall comes off a career high in rushing attempts (243) and rushing yards (1,065), but touchdowns (4) remain a weakness in his fantasy profile. He also had eight run plays gain at least 20 yards (career-best). Over the past three seasons, Hall finished with 1,585, 1,359, and 1,411 combined yards while ranking 2nd (290.50), 16th (242.90), and 19th (209.70) in fantasy points.

When at his best in 2025, Hall rushed for over 100 yards in four matchups (19/107, 14/113, 18/133/2, and 14/111/1) while gaining over 100 combined yards in three other contests (111, 125, and 119). The Jets had him on the field for 61.1% of their plays, compared to 67.5% in 2024 and 60.6% in 2023.

For multiple weeks last season, Hall was listed on the injury report with knee issues, but he only missed Week 18. The Jets had him on the field for a minimum of 49% of their plays in his 16 starts. 

Breece Hall 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Hall is in the final year of his rookie contract with the Jets while working under a non-exclusive franchise tag that will pay him over $14 million in 2026. The direct of the Jets suggests that a long-term deal most likely won’t be worked out, inviting a trade before the season begins. 

Jets to use franchise tag on RB Breece Hall. (via @RapSheet, @TomPelissero, @MikeGarafolo) pic.twitter.com/oDcG8VD43I

— NFL (@NFL) March 3, 2026

An injury to Braelon Allen in Week 4 narrowed down the Jets' running back rotation last season from three to two players, which probably helped Hall’s overall opportunity. In the early draft season in the National Fantasy Football Championship, Hall ranks 16th at running back with an ADP of 36. 

His overall package would be elite in a high-scoring offense, which worked wonders for Priest Holmes in 2002 and 2003 (21 touchdowns over his first 35 NFL starts with the Ravens and Chiefs – 51 scored over his following 30 starts in Kansas City at age 29 and 30).

Hall falls into a wild card category for me this summer. I don’t trust the Jets’ offense to create winning touchdowns or catches for their lead running back, and they will certainly rotate in Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, leading to sniped fantasy production in all areas. 

To be a mid-tier RB2 in 2026, Hall will need to score about 220.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues, requiring about 1,300 combined yards with seven touchdowns, and close to 50 catches. Unfortunately, this outlook paints him as only a steady fantasy running back, instead of the difference-maker we expected after his sophomore season in the NFL. I also fear his lingering knee last year may be a hint of a bigger issue down the road.