Best 2026 Fantasy Baseball Mid-Round First Basemen: Rafael Devers vs. Josh Naylor

Rafael Devers and Josh Naylor offer contrasting paths to profit at first base in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts.

San Francisco Giants designated hitter Rafael Devers against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Rafael Devers and Josh Naylor land in the same ADP range for 2026, but they arrive there in completely different ways. One brings elite raw power with strikeout risk in a new ballpark, while the other quietly reinvented his fantasy profile with unexpected speed and bankable RBI production.

1B6 – Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants (NFBC ADP – 66)

Devers comes into 2026 with a first base qualification, requiring fantasy drafters to compare him to a different group of players. Last season, he finished 27th in FPGscore (4.11) for hitters. His contact batting average (.314) was a five-year low.

He opened the year with no hits over his first 19 at-bats with 15 strikeouts, which may have been his way of protesting some of the Red Sox's decisions with him, and their expectations of him moving to first base. Over his next 68 games with Boston, Devers hit .292 with 47 runs, 15 home runs, 57 RBIs, and one steal.

The Red Sox shipped him to the Giants in mid-June. Unfortunately, he had a massive spike in his strikeout rate (29.4% - 22.8% with the Red Sox). Devers hit .236 over his final 335 at-bats with 52 runs, 20 home runs, and 51 RBIs. For the year, he had the highest walk rate of his career (15.4%).

His exit velocity (93.5) was the highest of his career, along with his barrel rate (16.0%) and hard-hit rate (56.1%). Devers had a balanced swing path, leading to his highest fly-ball rate (40.1%) and second-best HR/FB rate (20.8%).

Rafael Devers 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: The switch in ballparks, a second-half fade in batting average, and a massive rise in strikeouts have led to Devers being discounted this year. He has a long resume of offering a foundation four-category skill set, which outweighs his negatives from last year. I’ll set his bar at .260 with 90 runs, 30 home runs, and 90 RBIs while understanding Devers has more upside than downside in my outlook. I view him as a value target in 2026, especially for fantasy teams with early pitching strength.

1B7 – Josh Naylor, Seattle Mariners (NFBC ADP – 67)

Seattle Mariners first baseman Josh Naylor (12) reacts after hitting a home run in the sixth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game six of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Rogers Centre. | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

The most amazing stat in baseball last year was Naylor stealing 30 bases over 32 attempts. His season ended with 26 successful stolen bases. After setting a career high with his average hit rate (1.876), he posted an outcome closer to his major league path in 2025 (1.569). Naylor posted a winning RBI rate (18.3%) for the fourth consecutive season.

His walk rate (8.0%) was close to the league average. He continues to have a favorable strikeout rate (13.7%). Naylor had relatively no change in his exit velocity (89.2), launch angle (11.6), and hard-hit rate (41.6%) while barreling 6.6% of balls in play (five-year low). His flyball rate (37.3%) has been at the top of his range over the past three seasons.

Over his 100 games with the Diamondbacks, Naylor hit .288 with 53 runs, 12 home runs, 60 RBIs, and 16 steals over 375 at-bats. His bat was more productive after getting traded to Seattle (.310/28/8/32/14 over 168 at-bats).

Josh Naylor 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Naylor was a great fantasy value last year, thanks to his surprising speed. Over his previous 598 games in the majors, he only had 25 stolen bases. His FPGscore (5.46) ranked 21st for hitters last year. Naylor will surely have a regression in stolen bases, and his home runs total projects closer to last season (20) than 2024 (31).

I respect his ability to hit with runners on base. He looks reasonably priced in 2026, given his success over the past two years. Somewhere in the range of .270 with 80 runs, 20 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 10 steals.

Rafael Devers vs. Josh Naylor 2026 Fantasy Baseball Verdict

Devers profiles as a classic post-hype power bat whose skills still point toward a four-category foundation if his strikeout rate normalizes in San Francisco. Naylor’s stolen base explosion likely regresses, but his consistent contact and RBI efficiency keep him firmly in play as a safe mid-round corner infielder. Ultimately, Devers is the superior option by just a tad.