Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions for the MLB Top 5 AL MVP Candidates

These five AL MVP candidates have varying upside in fantasy baseball circa 2026.

Feb 24, 2026; Dunedin, Florida, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) smiles as he high-fives in the dugout after he scored a run during the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at TD Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The American League MVP race is going to chase Aaron Judge. Between his age and injury risk, he is definitely one who may be caught. There seem to be many elite upside candidates hanging in the balance, and should you, a fantasy baseball manager, draft the right one, you may bathe in glory. These are the current top 5 AL MVP candidates, as well as how they may trend in fantasy baseball value.

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

There is no batter in the MLB than Judge. Per Statcast, Judge was in the 99th or 100th percentile in: xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Rate, Hard-Hit Rate, and Walk Rate. Judge was subpar on Squared-Up Rate and actually ranked in the 2nd percentile on Whiff Rate. However, that matters little when his ultimate Batting Run Value is in the 100th percentile.

Judge and injuries come hand in hand; however, that is overplayed. He has played at least 152 games over his last two seasons. There is no current risk, so there is none to anticipate. Judge is very well worth the No. 2 pick in fantasy baseball as he will be very difficult to catch in the MVP race.

Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

First and foremost, tune into the World Baseball Classic. Judge and Witt Jr. will be a spectacle to watch on Team USA. Witt Jr. is clearly the next-best batter after Judge. The 25-year-old is also going to improve. He ranks in the 93rd percentile of Batting Run Value, 98th percentile of Baserunning Value, and 99th percentile of Fielding Run Value. In the top four categories, Witt Jr. is in the 90th percentile or higher: xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Average Exit Velocity.

Witt Jr. will be primed for 30+ home runs, many stolen bases, and everything you can ask for. To catch Judge will be difficult for anyone, but if anyone can, it may be Witt Jr. He is +450 to win MVP.

Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

Raleigh really made this race tight on Judge in 2025. Can he do it again? 60 home runs will be very difficult to repeat. It is just not a common thing to do. Raleigh had 34 home runs in 2024 and 30 in 2023. It is very unlikely that he can repeat a 50+ home run season, let alone 60.

Statcast finds Raleigh elite in key metrics such as xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel Rate. It finds Raleigh very poor in Chase Rate, Strikeout Rate, and Squared Up Rate. He is boom-or-bust, which is a lot riskier than the more fully developed players like Judge and Witt Jr. Raleigh is my bold prediction: he will not even contest the MVP race.

Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

Rodriguez must get even better in 2026 to contest Judge and Witt Jr. However, he has the raw ability to do so. Rodriguez is in the 87th percentile of Statcast Batting, Baserunning, and Fielding Value. Like Raleigh, Rodriguez chases a lot, but when he connects, he goes boom-stick. Rodriguez has 32 home runs in two of his last three seasons. Unlike Raleigh, Rodriguez also has more value, such as his baserunning (stolen bases), to complement his hitting. He had 30 stolen bases in 2026.

To expect Rodriguez to win the AL MVP will still be a bold prediction. In fantasy baseball, he is well worth his ADP of 11th.

Nick Kurtz, Athletics

This MVP race is so contentious that Vladdy Jr. does not crack the top-5. Instead, Kurtz flies into the race with 15/1 odds. Kurtz is in the 98th percentile of Batting Run Value. He mashed a .290 average, 36 home runs, and a 1.002 OPS as an Athletic in 2025. That is impressive, given that you are on a bad team. In 2026, they may fail to make the playoffs, but they should not be as abysmal as usual. That helps Kurtz.

Naturally, Kurtz should only improve in year two. He ranked among the worst in Strikeout and Whiff Rates in 2025. Despite this, Kurtz delivered big numbers. The only way is up, as those percentiles were in the bottom 4% of the MLB. If Kurtz meets his ceiling, he has the MVP upside that Raleigh and Rodriguez may not have.