Avoid These 3 MLB Pitchers in Fantasy Baseball Drafts as Regression Candidates
The 2025 MLB season produced some fantastic ERAs from an array of pitchers. Some names we're high-caliber and well-expected, while others show up as a surprise among the top-20 ERAs on the season. No year is the same as the one previous, and sure enough, certain key players will plummet down the rankings. It is up to us, fantasy baseball analysts, to discover who those players may be and rank them low on our fantasy baseball big board.
Christopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
2025 ERA: 2.50
A 2.50 ERA is ambitious for any pitcher to achieve. Sanchez did so with 83% of his pitches being a sinker or a changeup. Sooner or later, players will catch up to Sanchez. He is an out-pitcher, attacking you with constant right-to-left movement. Sanchez's velocity is okay at a 95 MPH sinker and 86 MPH changeup. In 2023 and 2024, Sanchez's xERA was about 25% higher than that in 2025. This happened with little change to his arsenal in 2025.
The prediction is somewhat of a hunch, but a 2.50 ERA seems more likely to fall than rise. The reasons to gamble on the upside of Sanchez's run are thinner, with other stars like Cole Ragans and Yoshinobu Yamamato, to name a few.
Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox
2025 ERA: 3.35
Bello stands out with a great ERA and a poor WHIP of 1.24. Bello relies heavily upon his fastball pitches to generate his value, but with 95 MPH velocity, he ranks in the 64th percentile of pitchers in EVO. Bello must set the tone with his fastball and maintain great control gate-to-wire on the season. Most likely, he will regress. Bello's 2025 xERA was in the 26th percentile of MLB pitchers at 4.48. It is unlikely he can maintain that outlier ERA from the previous season.
Clay Holmes, New York Mets
2025 ERA: 3.53
The Mets signed Holmes out of the Yankees bullpen to become a starting pitcher. In doing so, Holmes did well, but likely ahead of his true value. Holmes had the highest WHIP (1.30) of any pitcher in the top-20 of ERA's. Outside of an elite ground ball rate, Holmes lacks much to be desired in his Statcast profile. His output across the board took a hit in 2025 as compared to his Statcast key metrics of years past in the bullpen. Look to averages to even out Holmes 2025 with a middling 2026.
More Fantasy Sports On SI News:
Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.