6 Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates Following Their Early Season Breakouts

Fantasy baseball managers may be gleaming at their successes found early in this 2026 MLB season. However, those same managers must take a look in the mirror. Will these successes remain, or will I soon falter? When we check out the fantasy baseball leaderboard, many top names are found, while others pop up in a moderate surprise. Those players may be primed for a regression. These are who we project to come back down to earth.

Christian Walker

Walker was drafted outside the top 100 hitters in fantasy baseball. Yet, he stands as the No. 2 1st baseman and the 5th-best hitter in all of fantasy baseball. Walker is batting .364; however, his career average is less than .250. The 35-year-old is bound to return to a sub-—300 average, which would make for some bad days ahead.

Jordan Walker

The Cardinals' right fielder is the RF1 in fantasy baseball and top-10 among all hitters. Walker was drafted at an ADP of 232. He has smacked 5 home runs, accounting for 12 RBI's in 2026, which is awesome. However, Walker has had no more than 6 home runs in either of his past 2 seasons. The odds he maintains this scorching run are very unlikely. Luckily, he is an elite baserunner, so that fantasy managers may retain great returns, just not top-10 overall returns.

Andy Pages

Pages is batting .413, and we know that no singular MLB player can maintain that level of play. Pages hit 27 home runs in 2025, and so he can remain quite highly valued. However, he should return to a rank outside the top-50 of hitters. His ADP was hitter No. 87. Pages' ceiling is a top-30 hitter, but his floor is outside the top-150. The range of outcomes places him at his preseason ranking.

MacKenzie Gore

Gore historically starts his seasons red-hot. Historically, he also falters to a borderline 4.00 ERA with a WHIP >1.30. Gore sits with a 2.74 ERA, and he actually can maintain this for quite some time. Come midseason, Gore is bound to fall off as he always does. That is a core reason why the Nationals let him go.

Gore was drafted in the SP58 in fantasy baseball drafts. He is the SP5 as of now, but likely to be caught by the likes of Paul Skenes, Chris Sale, Cole Ragans, and/or Christopher Sanchez. All things return to the average as the sample size rises.

Randy Vasquez

Vasquez is flashing a 1.02 ERA through 3 starts. In 2024, Vasquez's ERA was 4.87 and improved to 3.84 in 2025. Improvement is clearly shown on Vasquez's part, yet he is well ahead of his expected performance. Vasquez was literally unranked in preseason ADP, and even after 3 great starts, he is available in 55% of fantasy baseball leagues. He may be a great waiver wire add, but not to expect as a top-15 starting pitcher.

Jordan Romano

The Angels' closer has 6 games played, 4 saves, and zero earned runs. Fantastic it is, indeed, but unlikely to maintain itself. Romano played 49 games in 2025 with an 8.23 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. As much as we would likely say he figured something out, he probably has not. As alluded to, averages stabilize as sample sizes increase. Romano will fall off. Nonetheless, he is only 52% owned in fantasy baseball, so you should at least take a look at the add, regardless of how high he can rank in the long-term.