Fantasy Football Risk Vs. Reward: AJ Brown and 4 More Polarizing Draft Pick Decisions

These NFL players pose a ton of risk in 2026 fantasy football, but the reward might very well be worth it.

Jun 2, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver A.J. Brown (1) speaks at a press conference after practice at the team's OTA at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Wall Street is the center of the stock market in the U.S. It is a place to invest in stocks, and the biggest firms do so with great efficiency. How? They all have risk management teams that ensure all trades result in a net positive. In other words, the reward outweighs the risk. While fantasy football is a hobby for most people and very much not the stock market, it operates similarly in principle.

Certain players will enter this upcoming season as safe options, deeply embedded in their reliable roles. Others will enter the season with a ton of risk, whether due to the depth chart, injury, or coaching changes. Taking an early look at the rankings, these are the 5 players entering 2026 who have very high risk, but also very high reward.

QB, Jaxson Dart

The Risk: Dart is in his second year with as many coaches, now being John Harbaugh and Matt Nagy. His top weapon is Malik Nabers, who is not going to be healthy for training camp. Outside of Nabers, Dart has Darius Slayton and a mixed bag of Hail Mary signings to pass the ball to. There is considerable uncertainty about how the Giants' offense will look in 2026.

The Reward: Dart showed to be a legitimate NFL talent in his rookie season. He performed as a top-10 fantasy football quarterback at times and used his legs effectively. His offensive coordinator, Matt Nagy, is a Super Bowl Champion and helped coach Pat Mahomes to excellence. If this is a coaching upgrade, Dart legitimately might have top-5 upside at his position.

RB, Omarion Hampton

The Risk: Hampton comes off a rookie season during which he missed significant time due to injury. Kimani Vidal was efficient in his time as the starter. Mike McDaniel, as head coach, poses uncertainty, despite how optimistic one end of the outcome may be.

The Reward: Mike McDaniel bred De'Von Achane to supreme levels in Miami. The offense should be an RPO-style that favors Hampton, a player who was always planned to be a high-usage RB1 for the Chargers.

WR, AJ Brown

The Risk: Brown has been injury-prone throughout his career, and he now joins a team that likes to spread the ball around. Rarely has Josh McDaniels' offense fed a single wide receiver to the top-5 levels, aside from Randy Moss.

The Reward: The Patriots invested heavily in trading for Brown, which suggests they will make him a centerpiece. On skill alone, Brown is a top-10 NFL wide receiver and, as some argue, a top-5.

WR, Malik Nabers

The Risk: Nabers has been setback in his ACL rehab, recently undergoing a second surgery to clean up scar tissue. He will not be ready for training camp, and while GM Joe Schoen states that Nabers should play in Week 1, the optimism is not as keenly found among Giants fans and experts alike.

The Reward: Nabers should be a player capable of exceeding the 30% target share. Adding an array of wide receivers, including JuJu Smith-Schuster and Odell Beckham Jr., suggests something different than many might think. The Giants added these players out of nervousness that Nabers won't be ready. That means that they actually rely very heavily upon Nabers to carry a heavy load, as he will do upon return.

TE, George Kittle

The Risk: Kittle is on the injury report each week. He is 32 years old and weathered. The 49ers now signed Mike Evans, who can also take away from Kittle's red-zone scoring upside in the future

The Reward: Kittle is among the best tight ends the NFL has seen over the past decade. He fits right into Kyle Shanahan's scheme, and when healthy, they should still use him a lot. Kittle has remained a top-5 tight end over the past couple of years in points per game.