George Kirby vs. Jesús Luzardo: 2026 Fantasy Baseball ADP Value and Risk Analysis

Fantasy baseball outlook for George Kirby and Jesús Luzardo: analyzing ADP value, strikeout upside, ratio stability, and 2026 draft strategy.

Seattle Mariners pitcher George Kirby (68) pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays in the first inning during game seven of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Rogers Centre. | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Are George Kirby and Jesús Luzardo worth their rising 2026 fantasy baseball ADPs, or are drafters paying for last year’s stat line? We break down the skills, risk factors, and upside for both starters to determine whether they profile as league-winning values or volatile SP2 options.

SP18 – George Kirby, Seattle Mariners (NFBC ADP – 66)

Kirby is another 2025 pitching casualty for the Mariners. A right shoulder injury in early March pushed him to the sidelines until May 22nd. Batters drilled him over his first two starts (11 runs, 16 baserunners, and eight strikeouts over 8.2 innings).

Over his next 13 games, he went 8-3 with a 2.83 ERA, 0.983 WHIP, and 82 strikeouts over 76.1 innings. Kirby allowed three runs or fewer in six of his last eight games, but two of those outcomes killed fantasy teams (14 runs, 25 baserunners, and five strikeouts over 6.2 innings). Other than his four poor games, he went 10-5 with a 2.77 ERA, 0.985 WHIP, and 124 strikeouts over 110.2 innings.

Much of his failure came on the road (5.16 ERA, 1.281 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts over 59.1 innings). His exit velocity (90.6) and hard-hit rate (43.9%) against him were the highest of his career. Batters squared up more balls (line drive rate – 22.3%), but Kirby lowered his flyball rate (33.5% - 40.7% in 2024).

His average fastball (96.2 mph) matched his last two seasons. Kirby faded his split-finger fastball (3.2% usage – 10.2% in 2024). Batters struggled to hit his four-seamer (.196 BAA), but the rest of his arsenal (sinker – .328 BAA, slider – .257 BAA, and curveball – .258 BAA) wasn’t worthy of ace status. In 2024, Kirby threw his slider (.218 BAA) with success.

George Kirby 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: The drawing card to Kirby is command, and his strikeout rate (9.8) was the best of his career. He still lacks that winning swing-and-miss off-speed pitch, required to push him to ace status. Maybe the shoulder issue was caused by his split-finger pitch. I’d like to hear that Kirby is working on some form of a changeup in 2026. His pluses are his fastball velocity, command, and slider, but is it enough to fight for in fantasy drafts? Solid SP2, with help in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.

SP19 – Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies (NFBC ADP – 69)

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jesus Luzardo (44) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

For the fantasy drafters chasing around Luzardo over the past seven years, he rewarded them with an SP2 outcome last season based on FPGscore (2.48 – 25th-ranked pitcher). His strikeout rate (10.6) has been favorable three times over the past four years. Luzardo set a career high in wins (15).

Over his first 11 starts, he went 5-0 with a 2.15 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, and 77 strikeouts over 67.0 innings. Batters absolutely crushed him over his next two games (MIL and @TOR – 20 runs, 26 baserunners, and six strikeouts over 5.2 innings). He was up and down over his last 19 starts (10-5 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, and 133 strikeouts over 111.0 innings). Over this span, Luzardo allowed four runs or more in seven matchups.

He struggled against right-handed batters (.251 with 14 home runs and 19 steals over 530 at-bats). His best month of the year came in April (3-0 with a 1.73 ERA, 1.073 WHIP, and 41 strikeouts over 36.1 innings). Luzardo has a strikeout rate over 10.0 in every month. He allowed a career-low barrel rate (6.6%).

His average fastball (96.4 mph) has been an advantage every season in the majors. He upped the usage of his slider (37.9% - 28.7% in 2024), at the expense of his changeup (.233 BAA). His slider (.175 BAA) was an elite pitch while batters had success vs. his four-seamer (.266 BAA) and sinker (.381 BAA).

Jesus Luzardo 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: I love to believe that Luzardo is on an upward rise, but he doesn’t check enough boxes for me. His success relies on command and his one asset (slider), which he threw 1,237 times last season. His minor league resume (17-9 with a 2.94 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, and 278 strikeouts over 242.0) remains the glimmer of hope for a higher ceiling. Until his ERA and WHIP become assets, I can’t trust him as a foundation arm, and his price is much higher in 2026.

Should You Draft George Kirby or Jesus Luzardo?

Kirby’s elite command and fastball foundation keep his ERA and WHIP stable, but without a true put-away secondary pitch, his path to ace status remains narrow. Luzardo offers strikeout upside and flashes of dominance, yet until his ratios become consistent assets, he’s a higher-risk investment at his current draft cost. Kirby is the better option of the two.