Jose Altuve vs. Ceddanne Rafaela: 2026 Fantasy Baseball ADP Value at Second Base

Fantasy baseball 2026 second base preview: Jose Altuve vs. Ceddanne Rafaela ADP value, Statcast trends, projections, and draft strategy.

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) drives in a run with a sacrifice fly during the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Daikin Park. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Jose Altuve and Ceddanne Rafaela enter the 2026 fantasy baseball season with similar NFBC ADPs but very different career arcs, skill trends, and risk profiles at second base. Breaking down their underlying metrics, aging curves, and lineup context reveals which middle infielder offers the better value and which comes with the greater regression concern.

2B5 – Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (NFBC ADP – 131)

Altuve remained fantasy relevant again in 2025, while offering a neutral five-category season (.265/80/26/77/10). He finished 58th in FPGscore (1.82), pricing him 17 drops ahead of his current 2026 ADP in the high-stakes market. At age 35, Altuve needs 612 hits to reach 3,000 for his career.

His walk rate (8.4%) had a slight rebound from 2024 (6.9%), while shaving off some strikeouts (16.7%). He finished with a five-year low in his contact batting average (.326 – .363 in 2024) and weakness in his RBI rate (12.7%). Altuve came to the plate with 403 runners on base (97 more than last year). His run rate (37.9%) also had regression.

Altuve has settled into a pull hitter (56.0%) who relies on a high launch angle (17.7 – career high) to put balls in the seats. His exit velocity (85.1) is drifting lower with a minor league pulse, along with weakness in his barrel rate (6.2%) and hard-hit rate (30.9%). His swing path was the most balanced of his career in 2025 while beating his career average in HR/FB rate (13.6%) for the fifth consecutive year.

After the All-Star break, Altuve hit .247 with 30 runs, nine home runs, 25 RBIs, and four steals over 231 at-bats.

Jose Altuve 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: In his whole career, Altuve has outperformed expectations while transitioning his game to survive in the majors. The Astros have him locked up until 2029, securing plenty of at-bats for their future Hall of Famer. I only see a neutral hitter with a 75/20/65/5 skill set with a better chance of regression than improvement. I’ll let him beat me again in 2026.

2B6 – Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (NFBC ADP – 133)

Boston Red Sox outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela (3) doubles during the fourth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field. | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

In his second full season with a starting job for the Red Sox, Rafaela was the 73rd-best hitter by FPGscore (0.40). He scored at a high rate (51% of the via a hit or walk). His strikeout rate (19.9%) was much improved (26.4% in 2024) while upping his walk rate (4.8%) slightly. Rafaela added some length to his average hit rate (1.662), but lost momentum with his contact batting average (.317), which is masked by his higher batting average (.249).

Left-handed pitchers held him to a .220 batting average with 30 runs, seven home runs, 22 RBIs, and two steals over 150 at-bats. Despite showing growth in four of five categories last season, Rafaela was a fantasy liability over his final 229 at-bats (.218/29/2/15/7). His best production came in June and July (.285/27/11/29/7 over 179 at-bats). In May, August, and September, he only had one home run per month, with minimal RBIs (5, 5, and 7), which would invite benchings in fantasy leagues.

His exit velocity (88.3) jumped by 1.7 mph, with small increases in his barrel rate (9.2%) and hard-hit rate (38.7%). Rafaela hit more flyballs (40.0%), but saw his line drive rate (17.2%) and HR/FB rate (9.3%) move in the wrong direction. His launch angle (12.8) was lower than in 2024 (14.9).

Ceddanne Rafaela 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Rafaela comes into 2026 with dual eligibility (2B and OF), but his best fantasy advantage is at second base. His early ADP almost matches his success last season, but his approach and the Red Sox roster structure suggest another bottom-of-the-order opportunity.

Rafaela has a 20/20 foundation skill set, and he showed clutch ability in his rookie season, highlighted by his RBI rate (16.6% - dropped to 13.1% last year). I expect him to push his batting average higher, creating more stolen-base opportunities. His runs and RBIs should bring a neutral floor. I like his direction, but I would prefer to buy him at a discount this draft season.

Jose Altuve vs. Ceddanne Rafaela 2026 Fantasy Baseball Verdict

Altuve’s track record and locked-in role with Houston give him volume and stability, but the underlying data points to a declining fantasy ceiling at his current draft price. Rafaela’s 20/20 skill foundation and dual eligibility create intrigue, making him the more appealing upside target if his batting average growth and lineup spot cooperate. Rafaela is the slightly superior option.