Kenneth Gainwell and 7 of the Lowest Risk Players in 2026 Fantasy Football

I have created a new rating format. It measures a player's overall risk in combination with upside. The rating has been dubbed "Risk Ratings." I measure a score with the following metrics:

Injury Risk
Depth Chart Volatility
Offensive Scheme Fit
General Variance
Age

The ratings total up to 100. Most commonly, players range from 4/100 to 50/100. Certain players do pull very low, and some pull very high. For lower-ranked assets, a high rating will generally be 45/100 or worse. Today, we focus on the low ratings: those below 5/100.

The players below have all the opportunity in store and a low risk of injury based on their injury histories. At ADP, they are of immense value and absolutely should be targeted.

Caleb Williams

Risk Rating: 3/100

Since the start of his college career, Williams has had just two career injuries. He is a "Very Low" injury risk, per Draftsharks.com. Coming into year two of Ben Johnson, Williams is a long-shot MVP candidate. In 2025, Williams saw a 33.6-yard jump on a per-game basis. He threw 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. A year older, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland are expected to be an elite pass-catching core.

Justin Herbert

Risk Rating: 3/100

I have Herbert projected as the QB12 overall. His risk rating is higher than anyone in that generic range, thus making him worth a pick as high as QB7 in my eyes. The difference from QB5 to QB15 in my projections is less than one fantasy points per game.

Herbert's plantar fascia aggravation from 2024 was fully healed. He had zero problems in 2025. We look to a healthy Herbert. He will benefit from the big play-calling upgrade to Mike McDaniel, who had the Dolphins rank as the NFL's 3.5th-best offense over 2022-23. The Chargers, for that matter, have a better all-around offensive roster.

Bijan Robinson

Risk Rating: 4/100

This is the best player in the NFL, per my own eyeballs. In 2025, Robinson led the NFL in scrimmage yards (2,298), total forced missed tackles (112), and was 2nd in YAC/Attempt (3.95). That is just a small sample of his elite statistics. He also has yet to miss an NFL game.

There is little reason to expect Kevin Stefanski to be a negative. He is a 2-time NFL Coach of the Year, being one who favored Nick Chubb, and he is a multi-time top-10 running back in fantasy football despite not being much of a pass-catcher out of the backfield.

Kenneth Gainwell

Risk Rating: 4/100

The Buccaneers did not sign Gainwell to a 2-year/$14 million contract for nothing. Buccaneers offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, has given immense praise to Gainwell in stating, "He’s great with the ball in his hands. He’s very smart. He’s a great pass protector. There’s really nothing on the field where you can’t put him in a situation."

I find the role to be low risk. Gainwell is irreplaceable, and the Buccaneers do not trust Bucky Irving a ton in pass protection. It seems to be a two-man attack to supplement what Bijan gave Robinson in the form of one man in his last two seasons with the Falcons. Irving is the runner, and Gainwell is the pass-catcher.

Gainwell has no structural injury to his body since 2023.

Tetairoa McMillan

Risk Rating: 4/100

McMillan dealt with a few very minor muscular issues in 2025, but nothing major that concerns us. Healthy and young, he is at low risk of injury. There is no reason to project an injury to derail his season. It will be as unpredictable as any player.

McMillan has a target share of over 30% in his rookie season. The Panthers added no one to take away from his 2026 role. Logically, McMillan should only get even better in his rapport with Bryce Young. He led all 2025 rookies in receptions (70), yards (1,014), touchdowns (7), and explosive catches of 16+ yards.

Carnell Tate

Risk Rating: 3/100

The only way is up for Tate, who is the WR32 in ADP. Among his ADP cohorts, Tate has higher upside than anyone (DK Metcalf, Parker Washington, etc.). He is a top-10 NFL draft pick, impressively done while being the No. 2 wide receiver to rising star, Jeremiah Smith.

Dating back to the start of Tate's college career, he has yet to suffer any considerable injury. Just as Brian Daboll had fed touches to Malik Nabers in New York, he will aim for the same workload to benefit Tate. It is a carbon copy of that Giants offense, just now replacing Nabers with Tate to work ahead of Wan'Dale Robinson and the aging Calvin Ridley.

Denzel Boston

Risk Rating: 1/100

The Browns cannot be any worse than expected, right? They have the NFL's worst-rated offense, 5.2 points below average in expected points per game. As some may view that as a risk, I view it as the opposite. Boston is rated as my WR57. The worse the team gets, the more pass-heavy they shall go. The better the Browns get, the more efficient Boston shall be.

Boston had zero major injuries in his college career. He has also earned the Browns' starting X-receiver job, freeing him up to dominate man coverage. Boston is the PFF's No. 1-rated wide receiver versus man coverage in 2025.

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