Justin Jefferson and 3 Others Positive Regression Candidates in 2026 Fantasy Football
Positive regression: what does it mean? In simple terms, it implies that a player performed below average in 2025, and it was not due to any meaningful factor. They were not injured; they did not play badly; they just had bad luck in every way. In 2026, they are bound to perform much better as the law of averages flips in their favor.
Justin Jefferson
In 2025, Jefferson finished as the WR32 on a points-per-game basis. We are talking about a player who is among the NFL's elite. Jefferson ranked 6th in targets (141) and had 18 total targets in the red zone. Yet he only scored 2 touchdowns all season.
Much of the problem was his quarterback play. JJ McCarthy helped none with a 57.6% completion percentage. My numbers project a 34% target share for Jefferson, with 70 yards per game and 9.5 total touchdowns.
Kenneth Walker III
It seems strange that I am discussing the Super Bowl MVP on this list, but I am. Walker only had 5 touchdowns in 2025 despite touching the ball 252 times. His work was often stolen by Zach Charbonnet, who is now a thing of the past.
Last year's RB29 now joins the Kansas City Chiefs as their RB1. I project Walker to have more than 260 total touches. It is expected to result in 9.6 total touchdowns and a PPR ranking of RB12.
Breece Hall
The Jets' running back had a total of 279 touches in 2025. Yet he scored only 5 touchdowns. The Jets were bad, we know that, but 2026 shall bring better things. They added multiple pass-catchers. They did not add any threat to Hall's workload.
In 2025, the Jets were 6.3 points per game worse than the NFL average. The FPI currently projects them 3.3 points per game worse than the league average, but that is still quite an improvement over the prior season.
My 2026 projection gives Hall north of 290 total touches. He rings up 10.3 total touchdowns, double that of last season. Hall is the RB15 in PPR formats and a relatively safe pick.
Saquon Barkley
NFL Running Backs Who Had 300+ Rushing Attempts are MUST-AVOID Fantasy Football Targets...
— Tom Carelli | Fantasy Football (@TCarelliTakes) August 10, 2026
Since 2021, 85% of those players finished worse in the following season.
On average, they finish 15.5 spots worse
RB4.3 ➡️RB19.6 pic.twitter.com/9PmnOeZ9Il
It's a common trend that when running backs have over 300 rushing attempts in a season, they slump the following year. Now, the Eagles struggled probably more due to the failures of offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo. However, Barkley did get a slight reprieve in touches at a total of 280 rushing attempts.
Barkley was still elite in 2025 with 28 carries of 10+ yards, an average of 2.71 yards after contact, and in the passing game, a stellar 0.84 yards per route run. A better Eagles team should bring Barkley back to top-10 running back status. I project Barkley to have 13.7 total touchdowns.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.