Week 1 Fantasy Football Tight End Projections and Rankings: You Must Pick Up Michael Mayer

The tight end position took a hit this week. Brock Bowers, consensus TE2, has been listed out for 1-2 weeks due to injury. In turn, it boosts his backup and raises the ranks of those behind him. However, that is not the only storyline. Week 1 approaches and matchups must be dissected. In doing so, the projections below have reached their final form. Use them accordingly to make week-winning roster decisions.

Top-12 Tight Ends

With Bowers going out for Week 1, McBride enters as the far-ahead TE1 in fantasy football. A new head coach and play-caller, no problem. His 2025 season was with honors in the following categories, all being best in the NFL:

Targets
Receptions
Yards
Touchdowns

My opinion of Dalton Kincaid is very upbeat. The matchup is not the easiest as the Texans are debatably the NFL's best defense. However, in 2025, they were actually just 14th versus tight ends. The group is much the same. I do think Kincaid is a must-start given his skill set.

Dalton Kincaid out of 141 players (WR, TE, and RB) with at least 45 targets in 2025

2nd in EPA/target (0.72)
3rd yards/route run (3.1)
3rd in yards/target (11.7)
1st in QB rating when targeted
— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) June 29, 2026

Hey, Michael Mayer, welcome to the club! The former Notre Dame standout is among the better tight end backups in the NFL. I have him at TE12 amid Bowers' absence. Mayer's statistics without Bowers include 6 targets, 4.5 receptions, and 49 yards per game on a 10.9-yard average depth of reception (about 20% more than his usual).

Top Upside Plays

Week 1 TE Projections 10-28 — Thomas Carell

Isaiah Likely was having a dominant training camp. His targets were nearly double those of anyone else. That "anyone else" was often Calvin Austin III, who tore his ACL and is now out for the season. Likely should lead the Giants in targets outside of Malik Nabers. My hot take? Likely will have more targets than Nabers in Week 1.

The Lions ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends (2025). They open Week 1 against the Saints. Kellen Moore's squad is without Jordyn Tyson and Alvin Kamara. Their No. 2 pass-catcher will almost certainly be Juwan Johnson: last year's TE8. This game is expected to be a shootout, the highest total of the week in Las Vegas.

Fade These Tight Ends

I echo this from the 🐐 Stephania.
I’ve had so many people tell me George Kittle’s Left leg “still looks smaller” & has atrophy (it was his Right Achilles!).
He’s done everything right up to date. He’s a mad man with rehab.
Draft Kittle for 2026 (but probably don’t start Week 1) https://t.co/GSSLSh6nLi
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) September 6, 2026

George Kittle made the 16-hour trip to Australia. He will play, but we can be sure that Kittle won't be at 100%. The Rams are no easy matchup either; a top-2 defense.

We really need to see how the Chargers' tight end room hashes out. Charlie Kolar is the Chargers' TE1 on paper. However, he is a blocking tight end. It's not all that concerning, even though Kolar does steal a small amount of snaps. A "tad" concerning, I'd say.

Oronde Gadsden II was good in 2025, but the Chargers were still happy to sign David Njoku. There is no great telltale sign of how the depth chart works itself out. Fade Gadsden and Njoku until we gain clarity.

Sleeper of the Week

Michael Mayer is the easiest "Sleeper of the Week" we may have all week. He must be added to the waiver wire right away. Do not spend your entire FAB budget, though. Bowers is only out for 1-2 weeks. Nonetheless, Mayer is a fringe TE1 when acting as the starter in Las Vegas.

Week 1 Projected Leaders

Targets: Trey McBride (8.9)
Receptions: Trey McBride (6.2)
Yards: Trey McBride (62.5)
Touchdowns: Dalton Kincaid (0.6)

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