Should You Draft Chase Burns or Kevin Gausman in 2026 Fantasy Baseball Leagues?

2026 fantasy baseball outlook for Chase Burns and Kevin Gausman, featuring rookie ace upside, workload projections, ADP value, and draft strategy for starting pitcher builds.

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Chase Burns (26) throws a pitch in the eighth inning of the MLB National League Wild Card Game 2 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025. The Reds were eliminated from the postseason with an 8-4 loss to the reining World Series Champions La Dodgers. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Upside and stability collide in this tier of 2026 fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, as rookie flamethrower Chase Burns and veteran workhorse Kevin Gausman present vastly different draft-day paths. One offers ace-level strikeout potential with workload questions, while the other brings a proven track record that forces fantasy managers to weigh price versus production.

SP31 – Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds (NFBC ADP – 116)

Burns brings a talented right arm to the pitching pool in 2026. The Reds pushed him through three levels of minor league baseball last season after drafting him second overall in the 2024 MLB June Amateur Draft.

After three short inning outings at High A (four runs, five hits, two home runs, five walks, and 20 home runs over 11.2 innings), he dominated over eight starts at AA (6-1 with a 1.29 ERA, 0.714 WHIP, and 55 strikeouts over 42.0 innings). Burns averaged 5.25 innings over this span. Cincinnati gave him two starts at AAA (1-0 with a 2.19 ERA, 0.892 WHIP, and 14 strikeouts over 12.1 innings) before calling him up.

Major league batters banged him around over his first two starts (10 runs, 13 baserunners, and two home runs over 5.1 innings with eight strikeouts). Burns flashed elite ace upside over his next six games (3.72 ERA, 1.138 WHIP, and 49 strikeouts over 29.0 innings), highlighted by four 10-strikeout games. Unfortunately, a right elbow injury pushed him to the injured list for 35 days. The Reds limited him to nine innings over his last five appearances in September (two runs, 11 baserunners, and one home run over nine innings with 10 strikeouts).

His average fastball (98.5 mph) was elite in velocity. Burns featured a four-seamer (.239 BAA with 31 strikeouts) and slider (.181 BAA with 31 strikeouts) as his top two pitches while mixing in two minimal pitches (curveball – .500 BAA and changeup – .182 BAA). His command and success need work against left-handed batters (12 of his 16 walks over 85 at-bats with a .259 batting average and four home runs).

Over his 26 appearances last season, Burns threw more than 80 pitches in 11 games. He pitched at least six innings five times.

Chase Burns 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Burns brings stud ace upside, but the Reds will limit his innings again this year. His elbow issue in 2025 is a concern, especially considering the relatively low mileage on his arm over four seasons in college and pro ball. Home runs allowed have been a slight negative in his career.

This season, I expect the Reds to push him to a ceiling of 150.0 innings, but Burns must prove he can handle a larger workload. The fantasy market should view him as the 2026 version of Drew Rasmussen (2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 150.0 innings with 127 strikeouts) while offering more strikeout ability. Wins could be an issue, as I don’t expect him to pitch more than six innings in many games. The development of a third off-speed pitch would push his ceiling even higher.

SP32 – Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays (NFBC ADP – 116)

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second inning during game six of the 2025 MLB World Series at Rogers Centre. | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

After trending in the wrong direction in 2024, Gausman regained some of his command (2.3 walks per nine) last year, leading to an uptick in his strikeout rate (8.8) and an elite first-pitch strike rate (68.7%). Batters only hit .216 against him (lowest rate since 2021 – .210).

Over the first three months, Gausman struggled in April (4.50 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 34.0 innings) and June (5.46 ERA, 1.357 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts over 28.0 innings). He walked only one batter in May (33 strikeouts with 2.81 ERA) while developing into a consistent asset over his final 16 starts (3.00 ERA, 1.060 WHIP, and 99 strikeouts over 99.0 innings).

His average fastball (94.4 mph) was up slightly. Gausman has settled into a heavy volume two-pitch arm (four seamer – 52.6% usage with a .228 BAA and split-finger – 38.0% usage with .163 BAA and 123 strikeouts). He also threw a losing slider (.333 BAA). Over the past two seasons, Gausman has pitched more up in the strike zone (42.0% flyball rate).

Kevin Gausman 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Since arriving in Toronto, Gausman has a 48-41 record over four seasons with a 3.48 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, and 793 strikeouts over 733.2 innings. I avoided him last year due to his strikeout rate falling from 11.5 to 8.1 in one season. His ability to get ahead in the count adds value to his swing-and-miss split-finger pitch. He will be a free agent next year at age 36.

Before last year, there were signs of regression shown by his WHIP (1.237, 1.178, and 1.221), making him a better SP4/5 (depending on league size). In 2026, Gausman is being drafted as a borderline SP2. I view him as a serviceable arm, but not a foundation ace. More wins will help his fantasy value.

My bet is an ERA closer to 3.75 with a 1.25 WHIP and help in strikeouts. The next signal to look for in his demise would be more balls landing in the seats (not an issue over the past five seasons).

Should You Draft Chase Burns or Kevin Gausman in 2026 Fantasy Baseball?

Burns is the classic ceiling play whose innings cap and health history will test roster construction, but his swing-and-miss arsenal can swing leagues when deployed correctly. Gausman, meanwhile, profiles as a volume-dependent SP3/SP4, making draft cost and team context the deciding factors in extracting profit in 2026. Drafters should go with Burns.