Should You Draft Jaylen Warren or Rico Dowdle in 2026 Fantasy Football Leagues?

Pittsburgh’s backfield enters 2026 with fantasy intrigue, as Jaylen Warren’s receiving upside clashes with Rico Dowdle’s projected goal-line and early-down role.

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) rushes the ball against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half at Acrisure Stadium. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Backfield ambiguity can frustrate fantasy managers, but it also creates opportunities to find value when the market misprices volume and role. The Steelers’ running game was one of the NFL’s most productive fantasy units last season, making Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle one of the more important RB debates of 2026 draft season.

Aaron Rodgers' desire to get the ball out quickly and avoid sacks led to Pittsburgh’s running backs setting three-year highs in catches (115), receiving yards (834), targets (133), and touchdowns (5) in 2025. They accounted for 31.5% of the team’s receptions, up from 26.8% in 2024. Their backs ran the ball well (4.5 yards per carry), highlighted by a rebound in scores (15) on the ground despite finishing with fewer rushing attempts (379).

The Steelers’ running backs ranked fourth in the NFL in PPR fantasy points (487.30).

Let's take a look at the top two running backs on the depth chart and who is the better value pick based on Average Draft Position heading into the 2026 fantasy football season.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) warms up before the game against the Miami Dolphins at Acrisure Stadium. | Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

Warren entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2022 after a strong final season at Oklahoma State, where he rushed for 1,216 yards and 11 touchdowns on 256 carries while adding 25 catches for 225 yards.

His rookie year in Pittsburgh was a limited but promising introduction. He saw minimal early usage (17 touches, 77 combined yards, and seven catches over his first four games) before flashing in a spot role against Buffalo with 63 yards and four catches. Warren followed that with back-to-back 75-plus yard efforts in Weeks 8 and 10, then closed the season with a heavier workload over the final four games (43 touches, 173 rushing yards, a touchdown, and eight catches for 47 yards). He was on the field 29.4% of Pittsburgh's snaps, compared to 65.7% for Najee Harris.

His 2023 season was a clearer step forward. Warren carved out a genuine role in the passing game with 61 catches for 370 yards, but averaged only 6.1 yards per reception. He was more impactful on the ground, rushing 149 times for 784 yards and four scores at 5.3 yards per carry, including six rushes of 20-plus yards. His best fantasy outing came in Week 11 (nine carries for 129 yards, a touchdown, and three catches for 13 yards). He was also remarkably consistent in the passing game late in the year, recording at least four catches in each of his final five games. His snap share climbed to 48.1%.

Warren regressed in 2024, partly due to missing two early games with a knee injury, and managing just 158 touches on the year. He was largely a non-factor through Pittsburgh's first eight matchups, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry on 41 rushes with 12 catches for 67 yards. He found more of a rhythm down the stretch, scoring between 10.00 and 16.50 fantasy points in six of his last nine games and peaking at 17 touches in Week 16. Still, he has totaled only six touchdowns across 48 career games, a scoring rate that limits his fantasy ceiling considerably.

Surprisingly, Warren played second fiddle at running back for Pittsburgh last season behind Kenneth Gainwell (50.5% to 47.3% in snaps). He finished 18th in PPR fantasy points (222.40), with one impact game (14/143/2 with two catches for eight yards). Warren scored between 11.00 and 20.00 fantasy points in nine of his 16 games, giving him a consistency factor as an RB2. His season ended with 1,291 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 40 catches on a career-best 251 touches. He missed one game with a knee issue while battling a minor ankle issue midseason.

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Jaylen Warren 2026 Fantasy Football Forecast

Fantasy Outlook: Pittsburgh removed Kenneth Gainwell from their pass-catching equation this year, but they signed Rico Dowdle to compete for touches with Kaleb Johnson still sitting in the background for early down and scoring touches. He brings a 15-touch feel while on a path to see a significant uptick in receptions. 

Despite the Steelers’ back success last year, Warren comes off the board as the 28th running back in the early draft season in the National Fantasy Football Championship with an ADP of 78. His ceiling has the best chance of repeating and rising if Aaron Rodgers starts. My early thought is 50 catches with about five touches and 1,200 combined yards. 

Rico Dowdle, Pittsburgh Steelers

Former Carolina Panthers running back Rico Dowdle (5) warms up before the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Bank of America Stadium. | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Dowdle managed just 24 yards on seven carries in his rookie season, then missed the following two years entirely due to a broken hip and ankle injury.

He returned in 2023 to claim the RB2 role in Dallas, finishing with 505 combined yards, four touchdowns, and 17 catches on 106 touches. Dowdle twice reached 12 rushing attempts in a game and posted his best fantasy performances in Week 3 (46 combined yards, a touchdown, and three catches) and Week 18 (nine carries for 46 yards and three catches for 100 yards), though he did miss one game with an ankle issue.

2024 brought a full-featured opportunity, and Dowdle delivered. He handled 274 touches for 1,328 combined yards, five touchdowns, and 39 catches, missing only Week 8 due to illness. His year started quietly; he posted fantasy scores of 4.20, 9.90, and 8.60 in his first three games, before breaking out in Week 5 with 87 rushing yards on 20 carries, two catches for 27 yards, and a score. 

From there, Dallas leaned on him heavily down the stretch. Over the final 10 games, he saw 199 touches (176 carries, 833 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 23 catches, 118 receiving yards, and one receiving score), averaging 13.61 fantasy points per game. He topped 100 rushing yards four times and peaked in Weeks 9 and 13 with fantasy outputs of 21.70 and 21.30, respectively.

Carolina took notice, rewarding him with a one-year, $2.7 million deal last season. The Panthers gave Dowdle almost the same opportunity in 2025, leading to 1,373 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 39 catches on 275 touches. Unfortunately, much of his fantasy value came across three matchups (23/206/1 with three catches for 28 yards, 239 combined yards with one score and four catches, and 25/130/2 with two catches for 11 yards). The Panthers phased him out over their final seven matchups (73/252/1 with 17 catches for 106 yards) due to finding smaller running lanes (3.5 yards per rush and 6.2 yards per catch). 

Rico Dowdle 2026 Fantasy Football Forecast

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his recent direction and his ability to make plays in space, Dowdle projects to have another active role, with most of his chances coming in the run game. The Steelers should give him the advantage in goal-line chances, while still working as a rotational receiving option. 

His ADP (90) in the NFFC ranks Dowdle 32nd at running back in mid-May. Let’s go 200 touches for 850 combined yards with about seven touchdowns and 25 catches, painting him as a rotational RB3 in PPR formats.

Jaylen Warren vs. Rico Dowdle 2026 Fantasy Football Verdict

Warren profiles as the safer PPR investment thanks to his versatility, projected receiving workload, and ability to stay fantasy relevant even when touchdown luck runs cold. Dowdle offers more touchdown-driven upside if Pittsburgh leans on him near the goal line, but his weekly consistency makes him better suited as a depth RB3 than a lineup anchor.