Should You Draft Luis Robert Jr. or Jo Adell in 2026 Fantasy Baseball Leagues?

The next tier of outfielders in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts is all about volatility, and few players embody that more than Luis Robert and Jo Adell. Both bring 30+ home run upside at a discount in NFBC leagues, but their value hinges on health, contact gains and lineup context.

OF24 – Luis Robert, New York Mets (NFBC ADP – 126)

Robert missed another 52 games last season, putting him on the sidelines for 35.7% of his possible 810 starts over the past five years. His missed time in 2025 was due to two trips to the injured list with a hamstring issue. He only excelled in stolen bases (33) last season.

His average hit rate (1.635) is well below his peak in 2023 (2.056), and Robert posted a five-year low with his contact batting average (.315). He struck out 26.0% of the time, giving him three consecutive years of failure. His walk rate (9.3%) was a career high. He only hit .211 against right-handed batters, with 37 runs, eight runs, 37 RBIs, and 20 steals over 289 at-bats.

Robert had minor movement in his exit velocity (89.4), hard-hit rate (41.2%), and barrel rate (10.1%). He increased his launch angle (18.2), but finished with only a slight bump in his flyball rate (41.8%). His HR/FB rate (12.3%) has been below his career average (16.5%) over the past two years. Robert only had 53 barrels over the past two years, compared to 58 in 2023.

Luis Robert Jr. 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Robert was once considered a rising stud, but that luster has faded while adding injury risk to his profile. Chicago had a $20 million option for him this year (exercised) and one in 2027. After getting traded to the Mets, he should move to third or fourth in the batting order, giving him a much better RBI opportunity.

Robert will be easy to write off, but his underlying skill set gives him a chance at a 30/30 season with a rebound in his strikeout rate. If he wants to get paid, his stats this year will drive his future earnings. Pure risk/reward, which is helped if Robert happens to slide in drafts.

OF25 – Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels (NFBC ADP – 128)

Los Angeles Angels right fielder Jo Adell (7) runs after hitting a single during the sixth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Angel Stadium. | William Liang-Imagn Images

After struggling to find his way in the majors earlier in his career, Adell finally arrived in 2025. He set career highs in runs (63), home runs (37), and RBIs (98). His strikeout rate (26.4%) was well below his career average (30.2%), with minimal change in his walk rate (5.8%).

Adell has been an above-average player with runners on base over the past two seasons (16.7% and 16.8%). His average hit rate (2.056) continues to support 35+ home runs with 550 at-bats. More balls in play have led to a slide in his contact batting average (.331), an area of strength earlier in his career and the minors.

His bat was on point against left-handed pitching (.277/15/7/18 over 94 at-bats). After a slow start in April and May (.212/13/7/24/1 over 151 at-bats), Adell powered up fantasy teams over his next 30 games (.312 over 109 at-bats with 22 runs, 12 home runs, 26 RBIs, and two steals). He drove the bus home with plenty of long balls (18 and 48 RBIs), but it came with batting average risk (.218) while losing control of the strike zone (29.1% K rate).

Adell had the best exit velocity (91.7), barrel rate (17.2%), and hard-hit rate (49.6%) of his career. He has a flyball swing path (44.7%), with strength in his HR/FB rate (22.0%).

Jo Adell 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: The Angels hit Adell between fourth and eighth in the batting order last season. His best success came from the five hole (.270/20/11/33 over 159 at-bats). His power is real, but he still brings plenty of downside risk with his strikeout rate. Los Angeles has a below-par offense, with a lot to prove this year. I’ll set his bar at .240 with 70 runs, 30 home runs, and 80 RBIs, with some help in stolen bases.