Should You Draft Spencer Strider or Sonny Gray in 2026 Fantasy Baseball Leagues?

Spencer Strider’s post-surgery rebound potential and Sonny Gray’s move to Boston create a pivotal SP value tier for 2026 fantasy baseball drafts.

Atlanta Braves pitcher Spencer Strider (99) pitches in the third inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The middle rounds of 2026 fantasy baseball drafts present a fascinating contrast between a former strikeout king and a proven veteran, as Spencer Strider and Sonny Gray come off the board with dramatically different risk profiles. One offers league-winning upside if his velocity returns, while the other provides volume, command, and a new environment that could reshape his fantasy value.

SP27 – Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (NFBC ADP – 104)

In a way, Strider is a test case for pitchers returning after having internal brace surgery on his right elbow in mid-April in 2024. Pitchers having TJ surgery tend to return to full strength after 18 months.

He started throwing last January, with the Braves suggesting he would be ready for opening day. His arm teased in his two spring training starts (two runs, three baserunners, and 10 strikeouts over four innings), giving some drafters the green light to fight for him in fantasy drafts.

Atlanta decided to ship him to AAA for two starts (seven runs, 15 baserunners, and two home runs over nine innings with 12 strikeouts). After one start (two runs, six baserunners, and five strikeouts over five innings), Strider landed on the injured list with a hamstring injury.

After four poor showings (13 runs, 16 hits, four home runs, and 10 walks over 20.0 innings with 19 strikeouts), back with the Braves, his right arm helped fantasy teams for nine games (5-3 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.196 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts over 52.2 innings). Strider was a disaster over his following three starts (20 runs, 33 baserunners, and seven home runs over 11.2 innings with 10 strikeouts). He ended the year with six competitive starts (2.50 ERA, 1.306 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts over 36.0 innings).

His average fastball (95.5 mph) was down 2.5 mph from his peak in 2022. All of his other pitches also lost velocity and life. Other than eight home runs, Strider still has success with his slider (.223 BAA) and his low-volume curveball (.161 BAA). Batters squared up his four-seamer (.290 BAA) more often, and his show-me changeup (.316 BAA) didn’t develop. The exit velocity on batted balls jumped from 88.5 in 2023 to 91.3 in 2025.

Spencer Strider 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: In the end, 2025 was a wasted year for Strider. With another offseason to get healthy, his velocity should rebound in 2026. His poor WHIP (1.396), higher walk rate (3.7), weaker strikeout rate (9.4), and struggles with home runs (1.4 per nine) take the shine off his outlook.

When at his best, over 63 games between 2022 and 2023, Strider delivered ace-level stats (31-10 with a 3.36 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, and 483 strikeouts over 318.1 innings). Right kind of gamble, and I expect his ADP to soar in spring training.

SP28 – Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox (NFBC ADP – 112)

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at Busch Stadium. | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The Red Sox have been aggressive in upping their starting pitching depth this offseason, despite having three talented lefty arms on the verge of making an impact at the major league level. Boston traded for Gray in late November. He has one year remaining on his contract with a team option in 2027.

Twice over the past three seasons, Gray made 32 starts while reaching the 180-inning mark for the first time since 2015. He checked the command boxes, highlighted by a career-low walk rate (1.9) and a winning strikeout rate (10.0). On the downside, batters hit .262 against him, after holding them to below a .230 batting average over the previous six seasons. His regression was due to failure vs. right-handed batters (.282 BAA).

Gray pitched well at home (10-5 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.319 WHIP, and 122 strikeouts over 113.0 innings). Surprisingly, his WHIP (1.094) graded on the road, but he posted a losing ERA (4.92). Over his final 16 starts, he went 6-6 with a 5.28 ERA, 1.391 WHIP, and 100 strikeouts over 87.0 innings.

His average fastball (91.7 mph) was a career low. Batters crushed his four-seamer (.375 BAA), and his cutter (.400 BAA) has a losing pitch. Gray earns his success with a swing-and-miss slider (.170 BAA with 116 strikeouts), while also offering a winning curveball (.215 BAA). In 2024, had a much better sinker (.194 BAA – .273 in 2025).

Spencer Strider vs. Sonny Gray

Strider is the classic high-stakes swing—if the velocity and command return, he immediately becomes one of the biggest draft-day profit arms in fantasy baseball. Gray offers a safer workload floor, but his declining fastball and late-season regression make him more of a roster stabilizer than a league-winning pick. Strider is the better option of the two.