Spencer Schwellenbach vs. Eury Pérez: 2026 Fantasy Baseball ADP, Upside & Risk

Spencer Schwellenbach and Eury Pérez offer 200-strikeout upside in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts, but durability, innings growth, and home run suppression will decide their true value.

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach (56) throws against the New York Mets in the first inning at Truist Park. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The rise of Spencer Schwellenbach and Eury Pérez has created one of the most intriguing decision points in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts, where upside, health, and workload projections collide. Both young arms flash ace-level skills, but their paths to returning full-season value will determine whether they become league-winners or high-variance investments at their current NFBC ADPs.

SP22 – Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves (NFBC ADP – 82)

Last March, Schwellenbach rose up draft boards, showing that the fantasy market was willing to fight for him in drafts.

Despite showing failure risk in ERA (5.68) over his first six starts in 2024 with the Braves, Schwellenbach’s arm hinted at more upside based on his WHIP (1.295) while offering 32 strikeouts over 31.2 innings. His arm delivered ace-level stats over the final three months (7-3 with a 2.54 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, and 95 strikeouts over 92.0 innings).

Schwellenbach opened last season with three stellar starts (one run, 10 hits, one walk, and 19 strikeouts over 20.0 innings). Unfortunately, he got drilled twice (12 runs, 17 baserunners, and three home runs over 8.1 innings with seven strikeouts), leading to regression in his stats over the seven games (5.01 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, and 30 strikeouts over 41.1 innings). He found his rhythm over his final seven starts (4-1 with a 2.55 ERA, 0.851 WHIP, and 59 strikeouts over 49.1 innings).

Somehow, in early July, Schwellenbach developed a right elbow fracture that ultimately ended his season. His injury was uncommon for a pitcher, but he battled a shoulder issue in the minors in 2023, while also undergoing TJ surgery in college (2021).

His average fastball (97.0 mph) was up slightly from his rookie season. Four of his pitches were neutral (slider – .250 BAA, curveball – .242 BAA, cutter – .250 BAA, and sinker – .255 BAA). Schwellenbach earned his edge with his four-seamer (.214 BAA with 34 strikeouts) and split-finger pitch (.129 BAA with 32 strikeouts). His ability to get ahead in the count (69.0% first-pitch strike rate) paints a higher ceiling.

Spencer Schwellenbach 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: The next step in Schwellenbach’s development will come against left-handed batters (11 home runs and 14 walks over 218 at-bats). He has a history of injuries, but his right arm looks elite, making him a fantasy riser again once his velocity reports come out of spring training. I could see drafting him over at least eight starting pitchers ranked ahead of him in the early ADPs in the high-stakes market. With 30 starts, I would expect 15+ wins with a sub-3.00 ERA, a significant edge in WHIP, and a run over 200 strikeouts.

SP23 – Eury Perez, Miami Marlins (NFBC ADP – 86)

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez (39) throws the ball during the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Miami hooked a gem with the signing of Perez out of the Dominican Republic. His minor league career started at age 17 in 2021. Over 78.0 innings at A and High A, he posted a 1.96 ERA and 108 strikeouts over 78.0 innings.

The following season, a lat injury cost him about five weeks of development at AA. When on the mound, Perez pitched at a high level over his first 61.2 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, .188 BAA, and 87 strikeouts. He tripped up over three appearances (13 runs, 27 baserunners, and three home runs over 11.0 innings with 15 strikeouts) before landing on the injured list. His season ended with four shutout innings with eight strikeouts.

Perez shined over his first six starts (2.32 ERA, 0.806 WHIP, .148 BAA, and 42 strikeouts) in 2023 at AA before getting his call-up to the majors. Other than a disastrous game on July 1st (six runs and seven baserunners over one-third of an inning), he handled himself well over 11 matchups in the majors (2.36 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, .208 BAA, and 61 strikeouts over 53.1 innings).

Miami shut him down around the All-Star break for three weeks to conserve innings. Unfortunately, Perez ran out of gas over his 10 appearances between AA and the majors (4.74 ERA, eight home runs, 59 strikeouts over 43.2 innings).

Before the 2024 season, Perez suffered a finger cut in his pitching hand in late February. A month later, the Marlins shut him down with a right elbow injury that ended up requiring TJ surgery in early April.

Last year, Perez made his first start for Miami on June 9th, but he wasn’t sharp over his first four starts (11 runs, 14 hits, 10 walks, and 14 strikeouts over 16.0 innings) while building strength and pitch count. He gave the fantasy market six winning games (4-1 with a 1.06 ERA, 0.676 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts over 34.0 innings) before turning into a losing investment (5.96 ERA, 1.169 WHIP, and 54 strikeouts over 45.1 innings) due to serving up too many home runs (10).

His average fastball (97.8 mph) was one of the best in the game in terms of velocity. Batters struggled to hit his four-seamer (.201 BAA), slider (.167 BAA), and changeup (.067 BAA). His low-volume curveball (.290 BAA) was a liability. Perez has been a flyball pitcher (53.1%) so far in his major league career, who allowed too many hard-hits (46.5%) in 2025.

Eury Perez 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: The Marlins pushed Perez to 118.0 innings last year after missing all of 2024. He averaged 4.8 innings in his 20 starts in the majors, almost matching his first season in Miami. His next step is adding more length to his games while correcting his late-season home run issue and throwing more first-pitch strikes. I expect him to pitch about 170.0 innings this year, leading to 190+ strikeouts with a winning ERA and WHIP.

Some drafters will dismiss Perez due to concerns about winning games. I view him as a steal as an SP3 in pitching-heavy team builds, but he comes off the board as mid-tier SP2 in mid-January in the high-stakes market.

Should You Draft Spencer Schwellenbach or Eury Perez?

Schwellenbach’s elite strike-throwing ability and deep arsenal give him the profile of a true fantasy ace if his elbow checks out and he earns a full starter’s workload. Pérez may come with more volatility tied to innings length and home run suppression, but his overpowering fastball and swing-and-miss secondaries make him one of the most explosive SP3 targets capable of returning SP1-level stretches in 2026. Both pitchers offer immense upside but Schwellenbach is the slightly superior option.