Week 15 Quarterback Projections, Updated Rankings: Jaxson Claims No. 1 Spot

A snow game in Buffalo didn’t crush the quarterback position for either team. As expected, Josh Allen (40.35 fantasy points) finished with the top QB ranking for the week in four-point passing touchdown formats. Joe Burrow (28.20 fantasy points) was the third-best passer of the week.

The surprising game in Week 14 was the Titans-Browns matchup. This game had the lowest over/under on the board, but Shedeur Sanders emerged as the value at quarterback in the free agent pool. He gained 393 combined yards with four touchdowns, giving him the only other impact fantasy game (38.10 fantasy points) of the week. His success was better than his previous two games combined (25.50 fantasy points).

Ten other quarterbacks scored over 20.00 fantasy points, which included two have-nots (Tyler Shough – 23.70 and J.J. McCarthy – 22.05).

Best Fantasy Football Quarterbacks in 2025

Here's the top 12 quarterbacks by scoring average after 13 weeks:

Josh Allen (27.14)
Patrick Mahomes (24.43)
Dak Prescott (23.64)
Drake Maye (23.21)
Matthew Stafford (23.18)
Jalen Hurts (22.03)
Caleb Williams (21.16)
Justin Herbert (21.07)
Bo Nix (20.80)
Jared Goff (20.67)
Daniel Jones (20.66)
Lamar Jackson (20.37)

Week 14 Fantasy Football Quarterback Bust

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

For the second time in five games, Mahomes struggled to make plays in the passing game. The Bills held him to a 42.9% completion rate in Week 9, leading to a season-low 14.00 fantasy points and no touchdowns for the first time this year. His home matchup against the Texans' dominant defense was even worse. Mahomes passed only 160 yards with no passing touchdowns for the third time in five contests while completing 42.4% of his passes. In the end, his output was a new low for the season.

Runner Up: Jalen Hurts had a lower score in fantasy points (7.80) than Patrick Mahomes, but his failure was self-inflicted due to throwing four interceptions. Coming into the week, Hurts only had seven interceptions over his previous 27 starts. His completion rate has been under 58.0% in four (57.7%, 50.0%, 55.9%, and 52.5%) of his last five matchups. Over this span, the Eagles gained only 5.9 yards per pass attempt.

Each week, I’ll release my depth charts and projections on Wednesday, with a neutral eye informed by hints from previous results or in-season injuries. These statistics represent baseline outlooks, with their potential already factored in. Touchdowns create impact scores and winning fantasy days, especially in non-PPR formats. Who scores them each week is the Holy Grail that the fantasy market searches for weekly.

My projections will be ranked, and they won’t resemble the weekly consensus in any way. My man, Matt Brandon, is in charge of finding a balance between my player outlooks and the public view of each week's rankings.

Week 15 Fantasy Football Quarterback Projections Preview

Here are the top 12 projected quarterbacks for Week 15:

Week 15 Fantasy Football Quarterback Projections & Rankings — Shawn Childs

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

Dart, as the top quarterback for the week, could be a head-shaker for some fantasy football game managers. Coming into this week, the Giants’ starting quarterbacks have combined to score 305.95 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats, which is the sixth-highest total of the year (only 16.06 fantasy points away from second-place). I can only imagine where New York would rank if Malik Nabers didn’t get hurt.

In his eight starts, Dart scored over 20.00 fantasy points in seven games, highlighted by success in three matchups (32.25, 29.15, and 29.70). He comes off a down showing vs. the Patriots (159 combined yards with one touchdown, where the Giants lost the time of possession (33:26 to 26:34). Dart has a high floor due to his value in the run game (61/337/7). He saw his five-game streak with a rushing touchdown end in Week 13.

2025 Fantasy Football Quarterback Points Allowed — Shawn Childs

The Commanders rank 24th in quarterback defense (286.30 fantasy points). They allow a league-high 8.3 yards per pass attempt, with QBs delivering 24 scores (23 passing and one rushing). Eleven of their 13 opponents have scored over 20.00 fantasy points from the quarterback position, with four teams passing for more than 300 yards.

Geno Smith (289/3 with five rushing yards)
Dak Prescott (264/3 with seven rushing yards)
Patrick Mahomes (329 combined yards with three touchdowns)
Sam Darnold (330/4)
Jared Goff (320/3)
Bo Nix (337 combined yards with one touchdown)

I have Dart projected for 1.5 passing touchdowns and one rushing score, putting him on a path to score 28.33 fantasy points. I feel I have him under projected in this matchup.

Week 15 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Quarterback Pickup

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

Last week, I took McCarthy for a ride in the DFS market, and he was worth his salary investment. He threw a season-high three touchdowns, but all of his connections went to the tight end position. The Commanders failed to score, so the Vikings only attempted 23 passes. On the downside, Justin Jefferson (2/11 on four targets) and Jordan Addison (4/62 on seven targets) were barely used.

The Cowboys have the worst quarterback defense (353.05 fantasy points). They’ve allowed 29 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns to the QB position. Five quarterbacks have scored over 30.00 fantasy points.

Russell Wilson (473 combined yards with three touchdowns)
Caleb Williams (365 combined yards with four touchdowns)
Jordan Love (365 combined yards with three touchdowns)
Jalen Hurts (322 combined yards with three touchdowns)
Patrick Mahomes (291 combined yards with four touchdowns)

The Vikings should chase on the scoreboard, forcing McCarthy to the air on more passes. The key to his success is Minnesota avoiding third-and-long situations, as their offensive line allows too much pressure (49 sacks) when their offense becomes one-dimensional. The Vikings allowed 13 sacks (4, 4, and 5) over their last three games, with failure in this area in four other matchups (6, 6, 5, and 5) on the year. Dallas has one sack or fewer in seven of their 12 contests this season.

In this game, I could see McCarthy having a floor of 250 combined yards with two scores.

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