Week 16 Quarterback Projections, Updated Rankings: Gardner Minshew Enters Top 10

Week 15 of the NFL season turned out to be a magical showing by Trevor Lawrence and any fantasy team that started him. He dominated the quarterback position by passing for 330 yards with five touchdowns while also adding value in the run game (5/51/1). His success led to 47.60 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats, a mere 15.50 fantasy points more than Bo Nix (32.10). As a result, Lawrence jumped to seventh in fantasy scoring average (21.91) for the season.

Two other quarterbacks scored over 30.00 fantasy points, while 12 others had a floor of 20.00 fantasy points.

Kirk Cousins (30.65)
Brock Purdy (30.15)

Best Fantasy Football Quarterbacks in 2025

Here's the top 12 quarterbacks by scoring average after 15 weeks:

Josh Allen (27.09)
Jacoby Brissett (24.56)
Patrick Mahomes (23.83)
Matthew Stafford (23.35)
Drake Maye (23.20)
Dak Prescott (23.02)
Jalen Hurts (22.22)
Trevor Lawrence (21.91)
Bo Nix (32.10)
Jared Goff (21.26)
Caleb Williams (21.40)
Justin Herbert (20.53)
Daniel Jones (20.66)
Lamar Jackson (20.77)

Week 15 Fantasy Football Quarterback Bust

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals’ offense was a no-show against the Ravens, resulting in no points and a massively disappointing game for Burrow. He had plenty of completions (25) and pass attempts (39), and Cincinnati held the ball for 39 minutes and 19 seconds. Unfortunately, the Bengals’ star quarterback gained only 5.8 yards per pass attempt with two interceptions and three sacks. Over five games this season, he’s completed only 60.5% of his passes.

Runner Up: Justin Herbert (13.50 fantasy points) has been a tumbleweed over his last five games, leading to him scoring fewer than 17.00 fantasy points in each matchup while averaging only 160 passing yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions. I can see the Chargers losing their final three matchups (@DAL, HOU, and @DEN) if their quarterback play doesn't improve.

Runner Up: Jalen Hurts had a lower score in fantasy points (7.80) than Patrick Mahomes, but his failure was self-inflicted due to throwing four interceptions. Coming into the week, Hurts only had seven interceptions over his previous 27 starts. His completion rate has been under 58.0% in four (57.7%, 50.0%, 55.9%, and 52.5%) of his last five matchups. Over this span, the Eagles gained only 5.9 yards per pass attempt.

Each week, I’ll release my depth charts and projections on Wednesday, with a neutral eye informed by hints from previous results or in-season injuries. These statistics represent baseline outlooks, with their potential already factored in. Touchdowns create impact scores and winning fantasy days, especially in non-PPR formats. Who scores them each week is the Holy Grail that the fantasy market searches for weekly.

My projections will be ranked, and they won’t resemble the weekly consensus in any way. My man, Matt Brandon, is in charge of finding a balance between my player outlooks and the public view of each week's rankings.

Week 16 Fantasy Football Quarterback Projections Preview

Here are the top 12 projected quarterbacks for Week 16:

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

The Bills are playing their fourth game on the road over the past five weeks, where Allen tends to be less of an edge at quarterback. He remains the top-scoring player at his position, with his best four games in fantasy points (42.70, 31.55, 47.85, and 40.35) coming in Buffalo. Allen comes off a great win on the road vs. the rising New England Patriots after trailing 21-0. Despite the victory, he passed for fewer than 200 yards for the fifth time this year, all coming away from home.

2025 Fantasy Football Quarterback Points Allowed — Shawn Childs

The Browns rank fourth in quarterback defense (241.80 fantasy points), with failure in two games (BAL – 238 combined yards with four touchdowns and NE – 332 combined yards with three touchdowns). They allow 6.7 yards per pass attempt while controlling quarterbacks in the run game (56/174/1 – 3.1 yards per carry).

Allen is the top-ranked quarterback again this week, but Buffalo must give him time to throw to reach his expected outcome. Quarterbacks have 23 touchdowns against Cleveland, and a short field could help the Bills’ quarterback's value in this matchup. Pass rusher Myles Garrett (21.5 sacks) hopes to break the record for the most sacks in a season (22.5) in this game.

Gardner Minshew, Kansas City Chiefs

It’s hard to believe the Chiefs were knocked out of the 2025 postseason last week, and they lost Patrick Mahomes for the year with a torn ACL in his left knee. Minshew has made 46 career starts in the NFL, leading to a 17-29 record. His best success came in 2023 for the Colts (7-6). He tends to be a game manager with minimal value in the run game.

Kansas City comes into Week 16 with the second-best output in fantasy points (340.05) for quarterbacks, helped by Mahomes' value in the run game (69/416/5).

The Titans slipped to 28th in quarterback defense (322.55 fantasy points) after getting drilled by Shedeur Sanders (393 combined yards with four touchdowns) and Brock Purdy (339 combined yards and three touchdowns) over the past two weeks. Tennessee allows 8.1 yards per pass attempt with quarterbacks scoring 28 touchdowns (25 passing and three rushing), 20 of those TDs came over their last eight matchups.

Minshew has plenty of NFL experience, and the Chiefs should be motivated to end the year with a winning record. I have him projected to pass for 251 yards with two scores while chipping in with a 25% chance of scoring on the ground.

Click HERE to view our full Week 16 QB Projections & Rankings!