3 Reasons Fantasy Managers Can't Trust Justin Jefferson In Week 15 & Beyond

Evaluating why managers shouldn’t trust Justin Jefferson in fantasy football moving forward.

Dec 7, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) practices before the game at U.S. Bank Stadium. | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Heading into Week 15 and the fantasy playoffs, Justin Jefferson may not be the surefire WR1 many expect. While he’s undeniably talented, inconsistent play and ongoing chemistry issues with quarterback J.J. McCarthy raise questions about his target reliability and big-play potential.

Additionally, poor statistical trends and a shift in the Vikings’ offensive game plan toward a more spread-out, run-heavy approach could further limit Jefferson’s fantasy ceiling. For managers seeking consistency and high-upside production in the critical final weeks, it may be wise to proceed with caution.

J.J. McCarthy's Poor QB Play And Lack of Chemistry With Justin Jefferson

J.J. McCarthy has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season, if not the worst. He ranks last in the league in completion percentage at 56% and last in QBR with 27.5.

He is also near the bottom in yards per game, averaging just 156, and has the worst interception percentage in the NFL at 5.5%. Over seven games, he has thrown 9 touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions and has fumbled 5 times.

These struggles make it nearly impossible for star wide receiver Justin Jefferson to find a rhythm, limiting his upside and leaving fantasy managers frustrated.

4 receptions

7.5 targets

47 yards

0.3 TD

These are the per-game stats for Justin Jefferson with JJ McCarthy as QB.

Getting the leagues best receiver involved needs to happen over these last 4 games for McCarthy, Jefferson, and the Vikings. pic.twitter.com/PJqzL44zyN

— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) December 9, 2025

Justin Jefferson's Poor Statistical Trend

Over the past five weeks (Weeks 10–14), Justin Jefferson has experienced his worst stretch in fantasy football, topping double-digit points only once. In that span, he scored 7.7 points vs. the Ravens (Week 10), 11.1 vs. the Bengals (Week 11), 8.8 vs. the Packers (Week 12), 2.4 vs. the Seahawks (Week 13), and 3.1 vs. the Commanders (Week 14). He’s averaging just 6.6 points per game over this stretch.

Overall, Jefferson is averaging 12.1 points per game on the season, a major disappointment for fantasy managers who drafted him as a top-three pick in most leagues.

Justin Jefferson has 15 yards in his last two games. pic.twitter.com/VV2QvBzR5n

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 8, 2025

Looking ahead, Jefferson does have a favorable upcoming schedule: Week 15 vs. the Cowboys (32nd vs. WRs in fantasy), Week 16 vs. the Giants (30th), and Week 17 vs. the Lions (31st). However, his struggles go beyond matchups. Until he proves he can produce consistently, favorable defenses won’t make much of a difference.

Minnesota Vikings Run Heavy Approach

Following J.J. McCarthy’s poor performance in Week 12 against the Packers, where he threw for just 87 yards on 12 of 19 completions and threw two interceptions, and the Vikings’ shutout loss in Week 13 with backup Max Brosmer starting, it became clear the Vikings needed a more run-heavy approach moving forward.

They implemented that strategy in Week 14 against the Commanders with great success, winning 31-0. The Vikings ran the ball 34 times for 162 yards, compared to just 23 passing attempts for 151 yards. This approach eased the pressure on McCarthy and gave him a better chance to succeed.

The downside for fantasy owners is wide receiver Justin Jefferson. In this contest, he caught only two passes for 11 yards on four targets. As long as the Vikings rely on the ground game, Jefferson’s fantasy production may continue to be limited.