Bijan Robinson’s Upside, Baker Mayfield’s Passing Props, More Falcons & Bucs TNF Analysis

Tampa Bay rides into Week 15 on offensive fumes while losing five of its last seven games. Three of those losses came to the Patriots, Bills, and Rams. They have two contests remaining against the Panthers that will ultimately determine the NFC South title.

Atlanta comes off a home thrashing by the Seattle Seahawks (37-9), giving the Falcons only one win over their past eight matchups. Five of their losses this year have come by a touchdown or less.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Week 15 TNF Game Information

TV: Prime Video

Time: 8:15 PM EST

Vegas Line (DraftKings): Tampa Bay – 4.5 points

Over/Under: 44.5

To help game managers set their rosters in Week 15, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for the Falcons and Buccaneers:

Week 15 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Projections

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons

Over his last three starts, Cousins averaged 198 passing yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He completed only 60.5% of his passes while gaining 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Atlanta passed for fewer than 235 yards over their last seven matchups. Drake London won’t play this week.

DraftKings set his over/under at 207.5 passing yards (-113o). The prop market expects him to pass for fewer than 1.5 touchdowns (-260u).

2025 Fantasy Football Quarterback Points Against — Shawn Childs

Tampa ranks 27th in passing yards allowed (3,339), with quarterbacks tossing 21 touchdowns. They allow 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Eight quarterbacks passed for more than 207 yards.

Michael Penix (298/1)
Sam Darnold (341/4)
Mac Jones (347/0)
Jared Goff (241/1)
Drake Maye (270/2)
Josh Allen (317/3)
Matthew Stafford (273/3)
Jacoby Brissett (301/2)

The Falcons want to run the ball and speed up the clock. They lack wide receiver depth, and Kyle Pitts is listed as questionable for this contest with a knee issue. I have no confidence in Cousins' ability to pass the ball.

Week 15 TNF Rushing Yard Over/Under Totals — Shawn Childs

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

Over 13 starts, Robinson rushed for over 77 yards in six games. When receiving 19 carries or more, he produced an over outcome five times. His floor had been 37 receiving yards in nine matchups.

DraftKings set his over/under at 76.5 rushing yards (-110u). He is -155 to score an anytime touchdown.

2025 Fantasy Football Running Back Points Allowed — Shawn Childs

The Bucs sit seventh in rushing yards allowed (1,016) by running backs. They’ve allowed nine scores on the ground.

Kenneth Walker (10/86)
Jahmyr Gibbs (17/136/2)
TreVeyon Henderson (14/147/2)

Tampa Bay should commit more personnel to defend the run in this matchup, creating tough sledding for the Falcons’ backs. Despite this outlook, Robinson has the play-making ability to turn a small window into a long touchdown. The receiving side of his prop equation should be more attractive in this game.

Bucky Irving, Tampa Buccaneers

Week 15 Fantasy Football Must-Start Running Back: Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (7) attempts to stiff arm Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Cooper Dejean (33) during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Over his two games back in the starting lineup, Irving averaged 16 carries for 58 yards while being on the field for about 50% of the Buccaneers’ plays. He opened the season with a higher playing time window (70.2%) but only a slight uptick in rushing yards in three games (71, 66, and 63). Irving is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry.

DraftKings set his over/under at 63.5 yards (-115o). He is +125 to score an anytime touchdown.

Atlanta slipped to 21st in rushing yards allowed (1,398). They allow 4.5 yards per rush, with nine rushing touchdowns.

Chuba Hubbard (17/73)
James Cook (17/87)
Christian McCaffrey (24/129/2)
Jonathan Taylor (32/244/3)
Breece Hall (19/68/1)

A short week may not help Irving’s snap count, but he is a critical part of Tampa being better offensively. The prop betters are siding with the over in rushing yards. The Buccaneers will rotate two other backs in some fashion, potentially steal a touchdown away from Irving.

Week 15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Football Projections

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mayfield lost his passing rhythm over his last four matchups (173/1, 103/1, 194/1, and 122/1), which includes an injury exit in Week 13 with a left shoulder injury. His wide receivers have lacked a pulse five times (9/86, 10/100, 11/74/1, 9/130, and 8/75) over their last six contests, highlighted by their low catch rate (51.6%) in those games.

DraftKings set his over/under at 218.5 passing yards (-113o). He is favored to pass for more than 1.5 touchdowns (-142o).

2025 Fantasy Football Quarterback Points Allowed — Shawn Childs

The Falcons rank 10th in passing yards allowed (2,765), with quarterbacks tossing 21 touchdowns. Five quarterbacks passed for more than 220 yards, all coming over the past six games.

Drake Maye (259/2)
Daniel Jones (255/1)
Byrce Young (448/3)
Tyler Shough (243/0)
Sam Darnold (249/3)

Mike Evans is expected to play this week, supported by prop lines set at DraftKings. His presence should be a big win for the Buccaneers’ passing game and the success of Baker Mayfield. I have him projected to pass for 208 yards with two touchdowns. I will update his outlook once Evans is confirmed to play.

Week 15 TNF Receiving Yard Over/Under Totals — Shawn Childs

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

For the second week in a row, Pitts has a higher receiving prop line (58.5) than his season average (48.5). The Falcons upped his usage over the past two weeks (7/82 and 6/90), highlighted by his 18 targets and Kirk Cousins' starting. He is on pace to set a career high in catches (81), but Pitts is making small plays (10.2 yards per catch) with minimal scoring (one touchdown).

2025 Fantasy Football Tight End Points Allowed — Shawn Childs

The Buccaneers sit 13th in receiving yards allowed (636) to tight ends. They allow a high catch rate (73.7%), with them gaining 9.1 yards per catch.

Kyle Pitts (7/59)
Trey McBride (8/82/1)

Pitts comes into this week with a knee issue, but he is expected to play. The Falcons' lack of wide receiver options helps the Falcons’ tight end in possible targets, but also allows Tampa to focus on him more in coverage.

Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over his last seven starts, Egbuka has only shown up once (6/115/1) on a winning stat sheet. He scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in his six matchups (4/58, 3/35, 5/40, 3/32, 4/42, and 2/15) due to a low catch rate (46.7%).

With Mike Evans playing, his over/under is only 45.5 yards (-114o), giving the prop market a layup feel for an over play. Unfortunately, this ticket would have only come in 28.6% of the time over his cold streak.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Godwin brings possession value, and Tampa had him on the field for 69% of their plays last week. He caught five of his eight targets for 55 yards, giving him double-digits fantasy points in back-to-back games (10.80 and 10.50). A Thursday night game may restrict his chances in his home match against the Falcons. Atlanta sits 20th in wide receiver defense (145/1,842/16 on 230 targets).