Bills vs. Texans Preview: Projections & Odds for James Cook, Nico Collins, More

Bills vs. Texans kicks off on Prime Video Thursday night, and with major playoff implications and huge fantasy stakes on the line, here are the key projections and betting odds for stars like James Cook, Nico Collins, and more heading into Week 12.

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook III (4) runs for a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the third quarter of the game at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Heading into Week 12, the Bills trail the Patriots by a game and a half, and they've already lost to them at home. In addition, they trail New England in division record (2-2 to 3-0). Two of Buffalo’s three losses have come on the road.

Houston moved back into the playoff hunt after picking up back-to-back wins with C.J. Stroud out of action. The Texans must jump Jacksonville in the standings, but face three playoff contenders (BUF, IND, and KC) over the next three weeks.

Bills vs. Texans Week 12 Thursday Night Football Game Info

TV: Prime Video

Time: 8:15 PM EST

Vegas Line (DraftKings): Buffalo – 6.0 points

Over/Under: 43.5

To help game managers set their rosters in Week 11, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for the Bills and Texans:

Week 12 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Projections

Shawn Childs

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) warms up prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Highmark Stadium. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Over the past three games, Allen regained his passing rhythm, totaling 896 yards and 6 touchdowns while remaining active in the run game (16/90/3). He’s passed for fewer than 220 yards in half of his 10 starts.

Shawn Childs

DraftKings set his over/under at 224.5 passing yards. The prop market expects him to finish with fewer than 1.5 passing touchdowns (-144u), a plateau that Allen has beaten in 70% of his games. He is -130 to score an anytime touchdown.

Houston sits third in passing yards allowed (1,900). Quarterbacks gain only 6.1 yards per pass attempt with 10 passing touchdowns. Only one quarterback has passed for 225 yards or more against Houston.

• Matthew Stafford (245/1)

DraftKings

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

When on his game, Cook gained over 100 yards in six contests while kicking in the rushing door in one game (19/216/2). He gained over 75 yards in one other matchup. Three (13/44/1, 15/49, and 16/48) of his four down rushing days came at home. Cook has a touchdown in six of his 10 starts. 

Shawn Childs

The Texans hold running backs to low yards per carry (3.4). They have the second-best defense in the league in rushing yards allowed (681). No running back has gained over 71 rushing yards vs. Houston. 

DraftKings set his over/under at 74.5 rushing yards (-111u). He is -110 to score an anytime touchdown.

Buffalo Bills Wide Receivers

The Bills' side of the receiving equation continues to be messy due to a deep rotation of wideouts, highlighted by DraftKings posting an over/under higher than 43 yards of any of Buffalo’s wide receivers. Khalil Shakir should be their top receiving option despite only having one catch for minus three yards in Week 11. Here are the wide receiver snaps for the Bills last week:

• Khalil Shakir (54%)
• Tyrell Shavers (54%)
• Joshua Palmer (50%)
• Curtis Samuel (50%)
• Gabe Davis (41%)
• Mecole Hardman (7%)

DraftKings

Buffalo has already ruled out Curtis Samuel and Mecole Hardman, while Keon Coleman returns to game action after getting suspended last week.

Only two wide receivers have had success against Houston.

• Puka Nacua (10/130)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8/123/1)

Week 12 Houston Texans Fantasy Football Projections

Shawn Childs

Woody Marks, Houston Texans

Over his last eight games, Marks gained 60 yards or more in three matchups (17/69/1, 11/62, and 14/63/1). He gained fewer than 45 yards in five other matchups. The Texans gave him RB1 snaps in six contests this season, with higher usage over the past two weeks (80% and 66%).

Shawn Childs

The Bills have struggled against the run in many games this season, highlighted by allowing 15 rushing touchdowns with backs gaining 5.2 yards per carry.

• Derrick Henry (18/169/2)
• Alvin Kamara (15/70)
• Bijan Robinson (19/170/1)
• De’Von Achane (22/174/2)
• Sean Tucker (19/106/2)

DraftKings set Marks over/under at 63.5 rushing yards (-109u). He is +120 to score an anytime touchdown.

Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills (10) rolls out against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first half at NRG Stadium. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

In his two starts in relief of C.J. Stroud, Mills passed for 292 and 274 yards vs. the Jaguars and Titans. He had three combined touchdowns in those starts. Over their last five games, Houston upped their passing attempts (49, 39, 40, 45, and 41), giving them a higher ceiling passing stats. 

DraftKings set his over/under at 210.5 passing yards (-113o). The prop market expects him to have fewer than 1.5 passing touchdowns (-179u).

Shawn Childs

Buffalo has the second-best defense in passing yards allowed (1,858). Three quarterbacks have passed for more than 210 yards.

• Drake Maye (273/0)
• Michael Penix (250/1)
• Patrick Mahomes (250/0)

No quarterback has attempted more than 34 passes vs. the Bills.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

The stock of Collins has been on the rise over his last three starts (7/75, 7/136/ and 9/92/1), with the latter two coming with Davis Mills behind center. Houston looked his way 46 times over his last four games (10, 11, 15, and 10 targets). 

DraftKings set his over/under at 74.5 receiving yards (-111u). He is +145 to score an anytime touchdown. 

Shawn Childs

The Bills sit eighth in receiver yards allowed to wide receivers (1,329). They allow 12.8 yards per catch, with wideouts scoring eight touchdowns.

• Zay Flowers (7/143/1)
• Stefon Diggs (10/146)
• Drake London (10/158/1)
• Tetairoa McMillan (7/99)
• Rashee Rice (4/80)
• Jaylen Waddle (5/84/1)