Baker Mayfield, Puka Nacua & More Buccaneers vs. Rams SNF Projections & Odds

Sunday Night Football features a high-stakes NFC showdown as Baker Mayfield and the banged-up Buccaneers look to upset Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and the surging Los Angeles Rams in Week 12.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) scrambles against the Buffalo Bills during the second quarter of the game at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The Rams (8-2) have the tools on both sides of the ball to make a deep playoff run. They’ve won five consecutive matchups, including two over their top division rivals. Los Angeles has allowed the fewest number of points (172).

A two-game losing streak by the Buccaneers (6-4) has tightened up the lead in the NFC South (one game over the Panthers). Injuries to their wide receivers and top running back have lowered Tampa’s offensive explosiveness. 

Week 12 Buccaneers vs. Rams Game Information

TV: NBC/Peacock

Time: 8:20 PM EST

Vegas Line (DraftKings): Los Angeles -7.0 points

Over/Under: 49.5

To help game managers set their rosters in Week 11, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for the Buccaneers and Rams:

Week 12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Football Projections

Shawn Childs

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mayfield passed for fewer than 230 yards in three (228/1, 152/0, and 173/1) of his last four starts, which have all come on the road. He’s averaging 1.7 passing touchdowns per game, compared to 2.4 in 2024.

DraftKings set his over/under at 240.5 passing yards (-113o), aligning with my projections. Mayfield is expected to toss fewer than 1.5 touchdowns (-140o).

Shawn Childs

The Rams are just below league-average in passing yards (2,403) allowed to quarterbacks. They allow 6.6 yards per pass attempt, with 12 passing touchdowns.

• C.J. Stroud (188/0)
• Cam Ward (175/1)
• Jalen Hurts (226/3)
• Daniel Jones (262/1)
• Mac Jones (342/2)
• Trevor Lawrence (296/1)
• Tyler Shough (176/1)
• Mac Jones (310/3)
• Sam Darnold (279/0)

I was on the wrong side of the Rams’ defense last week. I sense that Mayfield will do enough in this game to pass for more than his prop line in passing yards.

DraftKings hasn’t posted rushing prop lines for the Buccaneers’ running backs as of late Friday morning. They are probably waiting for an update on Bucky Irving, who should miss another game.

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) warms up before the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Williams has rushed for 65 yards or more in eight games, while trending higher over his last three starts (25/114/1, 14/73/2, and 12/91/1). His yards per carry (4.7) rates much higher than in 2024 (4.1).

He has an over/under 62.5 rushing yards (-110u) at DraftKings. Kyren is -165 to score an anytime touchdown.

Shawn Childs

The Buccaneers will give up big plays to running backs in the passing game (13.0 yards per catch). They rank 10th in rushing yards allowed (847), while allowing nine rushing touchdowns to running backs. Three running backs have rushed for over 60 yards.

• Kenneth Walker (10/86)
• Jahmyr Gibbs (17/136/2)
• TreVeyon Henderson (14/147/2)

Williams does the dirty work in tight quarters, and volume of carries can be his friend if game flow breaks right for him. The Bucs will have their hands full defending Puka Nacua and Davonte Adams.

Week 12 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Football Projections

Shawn Childs

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Stafford has been productive in passing touchdowns (27), but he has passed for fewer than 200 yards in four games (196/2, 181/1, 182/5, and 130/2), with three of these outcomes coming on the road. When at his best, Stafford passed for over 280 yards in five matchups (298/2, 375/3, 389/3, 281/4, and 280/4).

DraftKings set his over/under at 259.5 passing yards (-111u). He has a high over/under in passing touchdowns (2.5), with the prop market expecting him to finish on the under side of this line.

Shawn Childs

Tampa slipped to 23rd in passing yards (2,509) allowed to quarterbacks after Josh Allen lit them up for over 300 yards and six touchdowns. QBs gain 8.0 yards per pass attempt with 16 passing touchdowns.

• Michael Penix (298/1)
• C.J. Stroud (207/1)
• Tyrod Taylor (197/2)
• Jalen Hurts (130/2)
• Sam Darnold (341/4)
• Mac Jones 347/0)
• Jared Goff (241/1)
• Drake Maye (270/2)
• Josh Allen (317/3)

This matchup points to passing upside for Stafford. 

DraftKings

DraftKings only listed four receiving props for the Buccaneers and Rams on Friday. 

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

Since returning from his missed game in Week 7, Nacua has yet to regain his early-season high target form. The Rams looked his way only 20 times, leading to three steady showings (7/95/1, 5/64/1, and 7/75). He was the best wide receiver in the NFL over the first five games (10/130, 8/91, 11/112, 13/170/1, and 10/85/1), helped by his 12.4 targets per game.

DraftKings set his over/under at 89.5 receiving yards (-111u). Nacua is -115 to score an anytime touchdown.

Shawn Childs

Tampa has allowed the 22nd-most yards to wide receivers (1,543), with them gaining 13.3 yards per catch. Wideouts accounted for 55.3% of their catches permitted and 61% of receiving yards.

• Garrett Wilson (10/84/1)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8/132/1)
• Kendrick Bourne (5/142)
• Mark Hollins (6/106)
• Tyrell Shavers (4/90/1)

Part of Nacua’s recent step back in production has been due to Rams averaging 32 passes per game over the past three weeks. Los Angeles had 183 pass attempts over the first five weeks (36.6 per game), about a 14% increase in opportunities for their receiving options. In addition, Matthew Stafford has been more successful in using his tight ends from Week 7 to Week 10 (8/101/1, 10/114/1, 10/114/2). 

Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Davante Adams (17) is unable to make a reception against the Baltimore Ravens during the second quarter of the game at M&T Bank Stadium. | Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

Over his first six games, Adams only caught 47.3% of his 55 targets, which was well below his previous career path (64.4%) from 2016 to 2024. His chemistry with Matthew Stafford improved over his next three games (69.6% catch rate), leading to six touchdowns and three productive days (5/35/3, 5/60/2, and 6/77/1) while averaging 7.7 targets. Last week, the Seahawks held Adams to one catch (one-yard touchdown) on eight targets.

DraftKings sets his over/under at 61.5 receiving yards, a level Adams has beaten only three times in 10 tries in 2025. He’s riding a four-game scoring streak (seven TDs) while also scoring in three other games this year. Adams is -155 to score an anytime touchdown.

Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After 10 games in his rookie season, Egbuka is averaging 4.5 catches for 72 yards with a 60% chance of scoring per week. His catch rate (52.9%) is well below expectations based on his high floor in route running, but he does a lot of work in the deep passing game (15.9 yards per catch with 15 catches of 20 yards or more). 

Egbuka gained over 70 receiving yards in four contests (6/85, 4/101/1, 7/163/1, and 6/115/1), with three of those outcomes coming over the first five games. He has one touchdown over his last five starts, with four weaker showings in receiving yards (2/24, 4/58, 3/35, and 5/40).

DraftKings set his over/under at 69.5 receiving yards. Egbuka is +135 to score an anytime touchdown.

Shawn Childs

The Rams will give up receiving yards (1,566 – 23rd) to wide receivers, but they’ve scored only six touchdowns. Offenses have gained 65% of their passing yards via wideout against Los Angeles.

• A.J. Brown (6/109/1)
• Adonia Mitchell (3/96)
• Kendrick Bourne (10/142)
• Travis Hunter (8/101/1)
• Jauan Jennings (6/71/1)
• Jason Smith-Njigba (9/105)

A possible chaser game bodes well for Egbuka in this matchup, even with Chris Godwin expected back in the starting lineup.