Fantasy Football Week 9 Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Denzel Boston or Ladd McConkey?
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Today's fantasy focus is on the wide receiver position. Denzel Boston has been a key part of his overperforming Browns offense, while Ladd McConkey is on an underperforming Chargers offense. Who is the better player in Week 9 fantasy football? Let's find out.
The Case of Denzel Boston
Boston has a 93% route rate this season, with an 18.4% target-per-route run rate. Recency bias matters, especially at wide receiver. In Boston's last three games, he has had a 93% route rate and a 22.3% target-per-route run rate.
The Browns are quite healthy in Week 9, so there's virtually no variance there at Boston's WR1 spot.
How good really is Boston? Here are some of his advanced metrics:
- PFF Receiving Grade: 26th/79
- EPA per Target: 58th/96
- Yards per Target: 28th/96
- Yards per Route Run: 1.42*
- Average Depth of Target: 15.8
*NFL Average is roughly 1.50
In the red zone, Boston has a 28% target share. That is 29% inside the 10-yard line. Boston has zero red-zone touchdowns, but I would venture to say the law of averages will start working in its favor, resulting in a red-zone touchdown in any game now.
The Browns have a 57% red zone pass rate, about NFL average.
As for Boston's Week 9 matchup, he faces the New Orleans Saints. They rank 13th-best in Yards per Target Allowed to outside wide receivers and 23rd in EPA per Pass Allowed.
The Browns do start Shedeur Sanders this week. Luckily for him, the Saints rank 28th in Pressure Rate, which offsets the Browns' 30th-place ranking in Pressure Rate Allowed. Matchup: Average
The Case of Ladd McConkey
McConkey's usage rates are skewed this season due to lingering health issues. The good news is that he appears fully healthy for Week 9. To analyze his usage rates, we will focus on two games where he was mostly healthy: Weeks 3 and 8.
When healthy, McConkey has a 86% route rate and 15% Target per Route Run Rate.
The Chargers are healthy this week, so there is no skewing of McConkey's potential usage.
It's honestly deceptive to look at McConkey's advanced metrics, since many of them reflect games he played while unhealthy. What we do know is that, at his best, McConkey is probably a top-20 wide receiver in the NFL. He needs Justin Herbert to help him play better football.
What I can analyze is McConkey's Yards per Reception and Average Depth of Target. They are 16.8 yards and 13.1 yards, respectively, which are very strong.
This season, McConkey has only two red-zone targets. For reference, McConkey has run 128 total routes this season. So, less than 2% of McConkey's targets have come in that golden area.
McConkey competes against the Houston Texans this week. The Texans rank just 25th in Yards per Target Allowed to wide receivers. McConkey lines up in the slot and out wide, which the Texans are quite bad against in both alignments.
In EPA per Pass Allowed, the Texans rank 22nd. They also rank 20th in Pressure Rate, and the Chargers rank 31st in Pressure Rate Allowed. Justin Herbert is 27th in EPA per Dropback vs. Blitz. Matchup: Average.
Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Denzel Boston vs. Ladd McConkey
Boston will be the play this week. He has more consistent, proven volume within his offense. While Shedeur Sanders will start, I still gauge McConkey as the player with more variance risk, having spent so much time this season hurt and on a bad offense.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.