Fantasy Sports

Lamar Jackson vs. Jared Goff: Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Evaluating the Week 16 fantasy football playoffs matchups between Baltimore's Lamar Jackson vs. Detroit's Jared Goff.
Matt De Lima|
Detroit Lions Jared Goff (16) is one of the top quarterback plays for fantasy football managers in Week 16.
Detroit Lions Jared Goff (16) is one of the top quarterback plays for fantasy football managers in Week 16. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

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Detroit LionsBaltimore Ravens

The fantasy football semifinals are finally here, and for many managers, the margin for error has completely vanished. If you have survived the attrition of the 2025 season to reach Week 16, you likely have a roster loaded with talent, which often leads to the most agonizing decisions of the year. The quarterback position is particularly tricky this week, featuring a head-to-head decision between two players who have taken vastly different paths to fantasy relevance this season: Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Both signal-callers enter this critical slate with question marks regarding volume and matchups. Jackson is fresh off a strange, low-volume victory where his arm was barely needed, while Goff is coming off a high-scoring loss that proved his ceiling remains elite. With a trip to the championship game on the line, managers must weigh the safety of a high-volume passer indoors against the explosive, yet sometimes volatile, dual-threat ability of a former MVP playing outdoors. Let’s break down the case for each to see who deserves the starting nod.

Breaking down Lamar Jackson vs. Patriots

Lamar Jackson enters Week 16 following one of the most unique stat lines of his career. In a 24-0 rout of the Cincinnati Bengals, Jackson completed just 8-of-12 passes for 150 yards. While he managed two touchdowns, the lack of volume is a legitimate concern for fantasy managers who rely on his floor.

The Ravens' defense dominated, meaning Jackson simply didn't need to be Superman. However, his health and availability remain a talking point. He has missed recent practice time due to knee, ankle, and toe injuries, and his travel logistics a week ago were nearly as dramatic as the game itself.

Because of road closures for the Army-Navy game, Jackson arrived so late for the team flight that the Ravens considered rerouting the entire plane. Head coach John Harbaugh admitted the team was on edge, joking, "Lamar was the one we would certainly hold the plane for."

Jackson eventually arrived and played efficient football, addressing his health post-game by saying, "I believe I told you guys early on in the week that I was feeling better, like Thursday. I guess you guys had to see it to believe it."

While the efficiency is encouraging, the upcoming matchup against the New England Patriots in Foxborough presents challenges. The Patriots are not the fiercest unit in the league, but playing outdoors in the Northeast in late December introduces weather variables that don't exist for dome teams.

Furthermore, if the Ravens' defense continues to play at a high level, Jackson might once again find himself in a "game manager" script that limits his fantasy ceiling right when managers need it most. This should be a plus matchup but compared to what Jared Goff faces in Week 16, Jackson may not have the same upside.

Breaking down Jared Goff vs. Steelers

Jared Goff continues to operate one of the most potent passing attacks in the NFL. Despite a Week 15 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, Goff was spectacular for fantasy purposes, completing 25-of-41 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns.

This performance wasn't an outlier; it was a continuation of a trend. Goff continues a mostly productive stretch behind center, passing for two or more touchdowns in five of his last seven games. He has now tallied 29 passing touchdowns on the season, cementing himself as a high-end QB1 option.

The context for Goff in Week 16 is incredibly favorable. The Lions return home to the climate-controlled comfort of Ford Field to host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Historically, Goff’s splits at home are significantly better than on the road, and the fast track in Detroit suits his receiving corps perfectly.

With weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams stretching the field, and Jahmyr Gibbs providing an outlet out of the backfield, the volume is almost guaranteed.

Unlike Jackson, who was afforded the luxury of handing the ball off for an entire second half last week, the Lions' defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed. This forces Goff to keep his foot on the gas pedal for four quarters.

The 8-6 Lions are fighting for their playoff lives in a crowded NFC, meaning there is zero chance of a conservative game plan. Goff will be throwing early and often.

Why Jared Goff is the safer play for fantasy managers

When looking at the Week 16 slate, the decision ultimately comes down to matchup vulnerability and game environment. While both quarterbacks are elite talents, Jared Goff is the superior play this week over Lamar Jackson, largely due to the defensive opposition.

The narrative that the Steelers boast a "Steel Curtain" defense has not held up in the fantasy department this year. The Steelers have been surprisingly generous to opposing signal-callers, having allowed quarterbacks to score 20+ fantasy points a staggering 11 times this season.

This includes each of their last four contests, where they have surrendered an average of over 23 fantasy points per game to the position. They are giving up yardage in chunks, and Goff is perfectly equipped to exploit that weakness at home.

Conversely, while the Patriots are not a shutdown defense, they have been far stingier than Pittsburgh. New England has allowed quarterbacks to score 20+ points just seven times this season, significantly fewer than the Steelers.

Between the difficult road environment for Jackson and the statistical generosity of the Steelers' secondary for Goff, the Lions' quarterback offers both a safer floor and a potentially higher ceiling. In the fantasy semifinals, you chase the volume and the matchup.

My colleague Matt Brandon gives the edge to Jackson (seventh) over Goff (10th) in his Week 16 QB rankings. I must respectfully disagree!

Verdict: Start Jared Goff with confidence and look for him to light up the scoreboard at Ford Field.

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Matt De Lima
MATT DE LIMA

Matt De Lima has been covering fantasy sports for more than 15 years, contributing to top outlets such as Sports Illustrated, DraftKings, GiveMeSport and The Game Day. Known for his straightforward, actionable analysis, Matt specializes in start/sit calls, waiver wire pickups, IDP, and season-long strategies. His work has reached millions of readers and listeners through articles, podcasts, SiriusXM radio appearances and social media. Respected across the fantasy sports community, Matt combines deep football knowledge with a sharp editorial eye, delivering insights that help players win their leagues.

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