Patriots vs. Bills SNF Preview With Odds & Projections for Drake Maye & James Cook

The New England Patriots (2-2) look to tighten up the AFC East by traveling to Buffalo to face the undefeated Bills (4-0). Over the previous two years, the Patriots (8-26) still managed a win each year against Buffalo (24-10), despite losing six consecutive games to the Bills after Tom Brady left town.

TV: NBC

Time: 8:20 PM EST

Vegas Line (DraftKings): Buffalo Bills -7.5 points

Over/Under: 47.5

To help game managers set their rosters in Week 5, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for the Bills and Patriots:

New England Patriots Week 5 Fantasy Football Projections

Drake Maye has been the fourth-best quarterback in fantasy points (97.40) after four games. His completion rate (74.0%) and yards per pass attempt (8.0) grades well, while also remaining active in the run game (24 carries for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns).

DraftKings set Maye’s over/under at 227.5 (-113o), a total he has beaten three times (287/1, 230.2, 268/2, and 203/2). His only under in this prop came last week when New England dominated the game, helped by a punt return, leading to only 17 pass attempts. In his one career game vs. Buffalo on the road, Maye passed for 261 yards with two touchdowns. He is an underdog to throw over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-170o).

DraftKings Week 5 SNF Rushing Yards Over/Under Totals — DraftKing

The rushing outlook at DraftKings is much tighter than expected for Rhamondre Stevenson (31.5) and TreVeyon Henderson (27.5) based on their snaps last week (Stevenson – 57% and Henderson – 31%). New England continued to rotate in Antonio Gibson, who has sniped 18 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown over the past three weeks. Here’s a look at the rushing stats for the Patriots’ top two runners over their first four games:

Stevenson (7/15, 11/54, 4/18, and 9/38)
Henderson (5/27, 3/10, 11/28, 7/32/1)

Buffalo has struggled vs. the run (6.0 yards per carry) over the first four matchups (109/657/5), but quarterbacks (22/199/1) have a big part of their weakness.

Stevenson (+220) and Henderson (+250) have favorable odds for scoring an anytime touchdown.

James Cook has run the ball exceptionally well out of the gate, creating big plays (5.3 yards per rush) and touchdowns (5). He’s riding three consecutive games with over 100 yards rushing (21/132/2, 19/108/1, and 22/117/1) while scoring in each game this year. DraftKings set his over/under in rushing yards at 77.5 (-112). Cook is -225 to score an anytime touchdown.

Last year, Cook played well at home vs. New England (11/100/1 with three catches for 26 yards and one score) while having a limited role in Week 18 (on the field for 22% of their plays).

Buffalo Bills Week 5 Fantasy Football Projections

The Patriots held Allen to 184 combined yards with one touchdown in Week 16 last season at home. He was on the field for one snap in Week 18 due to the Bills already clinching the AFC East.

DraftKings set Allen’s over/under of 225.5 passing yards (-113u). After opening the season with a massive passing day (394/2) against the Ravens, Buffalo has run a more balanced offense over its last three wins, resulting in only 25 passes per game and a weakness in passing yards (148/0, 213/3, and 209/2). Allen is ahead of his last two seasons in rushing production (31/159/3). The prop better expect him to pass over 1.5 touchdowns (-145o).

Week 5 SNF DraftKings Receiving Yards Over/Under Totals — DraftKings

Both teams in the matchup tend to spread the ball around, leading to over/under totals in the prop market and challenging investments for the betting market.

Stefon Diggs was mispriced last week (35.5 receiving yards). He promptly delivered a win up to 100 yards after posting his top game of the year (6/101). He was on the field for a season-high 63% of the Patriots’ snaps last week. Here’s a look at New England’s wide receiver snap counts from Week 4 and for the season:

Kayshon Boutte (34/191)
Mack Hollins (24/149)
Stefon Diggs (31/130)
DeMario Douglas (8/97)
Kyle Williams (14/40)

Based on playing time, Kayshon Boutte (26.5) could be the best value on the Patriots’ side of the ball.

Over the past three weeks, no wide receiver for Buffalo gained more than 50 yards. Khalil Shakir (4/45/1) posted the only playable fantasy day.

Here are the leading receivers for the Bills with the snap counts after four games:

Keon Coleman (17/203/1 on 22 targets ~ 72.0%)

Khailil Shakir (16/190/2 on 20 targets – 60.9%)

Dalton Kincaid (14/179/3 on 18 targets – 48.0%)

Joshua Palmer (10/138/0 on 16 targets – 47.3%)

The Bills want to run the ball, but they have the receiving options to change gears if needed. They’ve scored 30 points in every game this year, highlighted by eight field goals and 16 touchdowns over 43 possessions.

New England is about league-average defending wide receiver (43/598/4 pm 61 targets), leading to 126.90 fantasy points in PPR formats. Jakobi Meyers (8/97) and Tyreek Hill (6/109) posted the best games. The Patriots faced LA, MIA, PIT, and CAR, which has been a favorable schedule for their pass defense.

Their best cornerback, Christian Gonzalez, returned last week. He allowed 49 catches for 530 yards and two touchdowns on 88 targets in 2024. He may see Keon Coleman on many plays this week.

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