Drake Maye, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers & More Patriots vs. Ravens Odds & Projections

The New England Patriots (11-3) saw their 10-game winning streak end last week, knocking them from the top seed in the AFC. They are 6-0 on the road, with the highest point differential (+106) in their conference.

The AFC North remains within striking distance of the Baltimore Ravens (7-7), but they must win their next two games to set up a Week 18 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Baltimore had a losing record at home (3-5), and their offense hasn’t fired with Lamar Jackson behind center since Week 9.

New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens Game Information

TV: NBC/Peacock

Time: 8:20 PM EST

Vegas Line (DraftKings): Baltimore -3.0 points

Over/Under: 48.5

To help game managers set their rosters in Week 15, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for the Patriots and Ravens:

Baltimore Ravens Week 16 Fantasy Football Projections

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Over the last six games, Jackson averaged 190 passing yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions. He ran the ball 35 times for another 153 yards and one touchdown. His lack of success is tied to a low completion rate (56.4%).

DraftKings set his over/under at 211.5 passing yards (-112u). The prop market expects him to pass for more than 1.5 touchdowns (-138).

2025 Fantasy Football Quarterback Points Allowed — Shawn Childs

The Patriots rank 15th in passing yards allowed (3,050), with quarterbacks scoring 24 touchdowns. Seven teams have passed for more than 210 yards, but none over the past four games.

Rushing Yard Over/Under Totals for Patriots vs. Ravens — DraftKings

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

Twice over the past three weeks, the Ravens only gave Henry 11 touches in a game. Despite his low chances, he gained over 100 combined yards in each matchup. He’s rushed for more than 78 yards in six of his 14 starts while scoring nine touchdowns.

DraftKings set his over/under at 79.5 rushing yards (-115o). Henry is -130 to score an anytime touchdown.

2025 Fantasy Football Running Back Points Allowed — Shawn Childs

The Patriots rank 10th in rushing yards allowed (1,131) to running backs. They’ve scored 10 touchdowns while allowing 4.1 yards per carry. Only two backs have rushed for over 78 yards, with both outcomes coming over the past three weeks.

Chase Brown (19/107)
James Cook (22/107/2)

Henry is a volume runner who needs the Ravens to play from the lead to hit the over in his rushing props. Baltimore will be motivated to run the ball and control the clock, suggesting an active game for their top running back.

TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots

Over the last two games, the Patriots gave Henderson RB2 snaps (49% and 48%). Henderson was a stud in Week 15 (14/148/2 with two catches for 13 yards). He’s scored two touchdowns or more in three of his past five matchups with a floor of 62 rushing yards.

DraftKings set his over/under at 56.5 rushing yards (-115o). Henderson is +105 to score an anytime touchdown.

Baltimore allows 4.5 yards per rush, with backs scoring 15 touchdowns. They rank 19th in rushing yards allowed (1,438). Seven running backs have rushed for more than 56 yards.

Quinshon Judkins (10/61)
Jahmyr Gibbs (22/67/2)
David Montgomery (12/151/1)
Nick Chubb (11/61/1)
De’Von Achane (14/67)
Quinshon Judkins (17/59)
Chase Brown (15/78)

Henderson has a winnable matchup, but it requires the Patriots to lead on him in the run game.

New England Patriots Week 16 Fantasy Football Projections

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Maye comes off his worst passing game (155/0), but offset his down showing with success in the run game (4/43/2). He passed for over 250 yards in his six previous starts (282/2, 259/2, 270/2, 281/1, 294/1, and 294/2), while ranking well in completion rate (67.4%) and yards per pass attempt (9.1).

DraftKings set his over/under at 243.5 passing yards (-112). The prop market expected him to pass for fewer than 1.5 passing touchdowns (-118u).

The Ravens sit 26th in passing yards allowed (3,511), with quarterbacks tossing 19 touchdowns. Eight teams have passed for over 243 yards. Baltimore has been successful at containing QBs in the run game (58/195/3 – 3.4 yards per carry).

Josh Allen (394/2)
Patrick Mahomes (270/4)
C.J. Stroud (244/4)
Caleb Williams (285/0)
Tua Tagovailoa (261/0)
J.J. McCarthy (248/1)
Joe Burrow (261/2)
Aaron Rodgers (284/1)

The pluses for Maye outweigh his matchup, suggesting an over in his passing yards.

Sunday Night Football Week 16 Receiving Yard Over/Under Totals — Shawn Childs

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

Flowers is within striking distance of setting career highs in catches and receiving yards despite the appearance of a down season by the Ravens’ offense. He’s gained over 61 rushing yards in 10 of his 14 starts, highlighted by two games (7/148/1 and 8/126). Flowers caught at least five catches in nine contests.

2025 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Points Allowed — Shawn Childs

The Patriots rank fifth in receiving yards (1,680) to wide receivers. They gain 12.9 yards per pass attempt with 15 touchdowns. Nine receivers have gained over 61 receiving yards.

Jakobi Meyers (8/97)
Tyreek Hill (6/109)
Jaylen Waddle (5/68/1)
Tetairoa McMillan (4/62)
Chris Olave (6/98)
Chimere Dike (4/70/1)
Drake London (9/118/3)
Emeka Egbuka (6/115/1)
Khalil Shakir (5/65)

Flowers should avoid the Patriots’ top cornerback on many plays, suggesting another active day in catches and receiving yards. Baltimore doesn’t have many other trusted receiving options.

New England Patriots Wide Receivers

The Patriots continue to rotate wide receivers, making it challenging to time which player will be best each week. Here’s a look at their snap counts and results over the last two games:

Mack Hollins (75% - 3/23 and 79% - 4/40)
Keyston Boutte (75% - 4/35/1 and 75% - 1/30)
Stefon Diggs (48% - 3/26 and 50% - 3/26)
DeMario Douglas (34% - 3/33 and 19% - 0/5)
Kyle Williams (22% - 1/33/1 and 10% - 0/0)

The Ravens sit 27th in receiving yards allowed (2,206) to wide receivers. They gain 13.1 yards per catch, with wideouts scoring 13 touchdowns. Twenty wide receivers have gained over 40 yards, suggesting that at least two New England wideouts have productive days in receiving yards.