Patriots vs. Ravens and Other Week 16 Over/Under Games to Target in Fantasy Football
In this story:
Week 16 of the NFL season is upon us, which means the fantasy football playoffs are here. As always, the challenge of setting lineups and finding an edge in fantasy football only becomes greater than the week before.
While talent and matchups always matter, one of the most reliable indicators of fantasy potential comes from the betting market. High over/unders signal expected scoring, and more points on the board generally translate to more opportunities for fantasy production. Every touchdown and red-zone trip boosts the chances for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends and even kickers to deliver starter-worthy numbers.
This week’s slate offers several matchups with enticing totals. A handful of contests stand out as potential fantasy goldmines, making them worth targeting when finalizing lineups. Below are the games, along with some included fantasy football analysis and advice.
*Over/under totals obtained from FanDuel Sportsbook*
Bengals @ Dolphins (O/U: 50.5)
This Week 16 matchup sets up as one of the most fantasy-friendly environments of the week, with explosive playmakers on both sidelines and each team’s defense being suspect. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are strong starts in a game that should feature heavy passing volume from start to finish. De’Von Achane is an automatic must-start thanks to his game-breaking speed, while Chase Brown remains a solid RB2 with consistent pass-game usage. At receiver, Ja’Marr Chase is locked in as a must-start, and Tee Higgins (if active) carries strong WR2 value. Jaylen Waddle is also a clear start with the Bengals, allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Darren Waller rounds out the fantasy appeal as a startable tight end as the Bengals allow the most fantasy points per game to the position, while Mike Gesicki remains a bench option. Malik Washington and Andrei Iosivas can also stay on the bench.
Quarterbacks:
Joe Burrow - Start
Tua Tagovailoa - Start
Running Backs:
De’Von Achane - Must Start
Chase Brown - Start
Wide Receivers:
Ja’Marr Chase - Must Start
Tee Higgins (Q) - Start
Jaylen Waddle - Start
Malik Washington - Bench
Andrei Iosivas - Bench
Tight Ends:
Darren Waller - Start
Mike Gesicki - Bench
Noah Fant - Bench
Steelers @ Lions (O/U: 50.5)
This Week 16 matchup carries legitimate shootout potential, making it a prime spot to mine fantasy points. Jared Goff is a strong start at home, while Aaron Rodgers remains a viable starter in a contest where Pittsburgh may need to keep pace. Jahmyr Gibbs is a locked-in must-start with elite upside, and David Montgomery continues to offer reliable RB2 value with touchdown equity. Jaylen Warren is a solid start thanks to his all-around usage, while Kenneth Gainwell fits better as a flex option. In the passing game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is an automatic start, Jameson Williams provides upside as a WR2 with his recent uptick in usage, and DK Metcalf remains a strong play. Tight ends can be avoided here, with both Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith lacking consistent roles.
Quarterbacks:
Jared Goff - Start
Aaron Rodgers - Start
Running Backs:
Jahmyr Gibbs - Must Start
David Montgomery - Start
Jaylen Warren - Start
Kenneth Gainwell - Flex
Wide Receivers:
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Must Start
Jameson Williams - Start
DK Metcalf - Start
Calvin Austin III - Bench
Isaac TeSlaa - Bench
Tight Ends:
Pat Freiermuth - Bench
Jonnu Smith - Bench
Chargers @ Cowboys (O/U: 49.5)
This Week 16 matchup features plenty of playmakers on offense, making it a strong fantasy game to target. Justin Herbert is a clear start despite recent struggles with injury in a game that should lean pass-heavy with the Cowboys allowing the most fantasy points per game to QB. Dak Prescott also remains a strong QB1 option at home despite a challenging matchup. Javonte Williams and Omarion Hampton both project as reliable starts based on expected volume, with Kimani Vidal offering flex appeal if the Chargers rotate backs. At receiver, Ceedee Lamb is an automatic must-start, while George Pickens, Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen all carry strong WR2 upside in a matchup that favors perimeter playmakers. Quentin Johnston (if active) fits as a flex option, while Ryan Flournoy can stay on the bench. At tight end, Oronde Gadsden II and Jake Ferguson are both strong starts, with red-zone usage making them valuable pieces in what should be a high-scoring contest.
Quarterbacks:
Justin Herbert - Start
Dak Cowboys - Start
Running Backs:
Javonte Williams - Start
Omarion Hampton - Start
Kimani Vidal - Flex
Wide Receivers:
Ceedee Lamb - Must Start
George Pickens - Start
Ladd McConkey - Start
Keenan Allen - Start
Quentin Johnston (Q) - Flex
Ryan Flournoy - Bench
Tight Ends:
Oronde Gadsden II - Start
Jake Ferguson - Start
Patriots @ Ravens (O/U: 47.5)
This matchup offers plenty of fantasy value, particularly around the quarterbacks and primary skill players. Drake Maye continues to play at a must-start level with his rushing floor, while Lamar Jackson is still a solid start despite his stock dropping in recent weeks. Derrick Henry and TreVeyon Henderson are both locked into lineups with reliable workloads, while Rhamondre Stevenson fits in as a flex with run and pass game usage. At receiver, Zay Flowers and Stefon Diggs are strong starts, with Kayshon Boutte providing flex appeal in deeper formats. The rest of the Patriots’ receiving corps can be left on the bench, including Baltimore’s Rashod Bateman if he’s active. At tight end, Mark Andrews remains a top option, and Hunter Henry stays startable thanks to steady involvement, while Isaiah Likely can be avoided.
Quarterbacks:
Drake Maye - Must Start
Lamar Jackson - Start
Running Backs:
Derrick Henry - Start
TreVeyon Henderson - Start
Rhamondre Stevenson - Flex
Wide Receivers:
Zay Flowers - Start
Stefon Diggs - Start
Kayshon Boutte - Flex
Mack Hollins - Bench
DeMario Douglas - Bench
Rashod Bateman (Q) - Bench
Tight Ends:
Mark Andrews - Start
Hunter Henry - Start
Isaiah Likely - Bench
Falcons @ Cardinals (O/U: 47.5)
This Week 16 matchup offers an under-the-radar fantasy environment with impact players at the top of each offense. Jacoby Brissett remains a reliable start thanks to his passing volume and floor, while Kirk Cousins is a better fit as a deeper-league option in a favorable matchup. Bijan Robinson is an automatic must-start with elite usage, and Bam Knight (ankle) or Michael Carter carries flex appeal depending on availability. At receiver, Drake London is a must-start if active, and Marvin Harrison Jr. remains a strong start despite the injury tag. Michael Wilson continues to benefit from expanded opportunities and is firmly in play, while Darnell Mooney can stay on the bench. At tight end, Trey McBride is a locked-in must-start, and Kyle Pitts Sr. offers TE1 upside after his huge game on Thursday night last week.
Quarterbacks:
Jacoby Brissett - Start
Kirk Cousins - Deeper League Play
Running Backs:
Bijan Robinson - Must Start
Bam Knight (Q)/Michael Carter - Flex
Wide Receivers:
Drake London (Q) - Must Start
Marvin Harrison Jr. (Q) - Start
Michael Wilson - Start
Darnell Mooney - Bench
Tight Ends:
Trey McBride - Must Start
Kyle Pitts Sr. - Start
Read More Fantasy Content
Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.