Ravens at Chiefs and Other Week 4 Over/Under Games to Target in Fantasy Football

High point totals mean opportunity, and several key matchups stand out as potential fantasy goldmines in Week 4.

Sep 14, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) throws a touchdown pass during the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images | Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Week 4 of the NFL season is already upon us, and the challenge of setting lineups and finding an edge in fantasy football only becomes greater than the week before.  

While talent and matchups always matter, one of the most reliable indicators of fantasy potential comes from the betting market. High over/unders signal expected scoring, and more points on the board generally translate to more opportunities for fantasy production. Every touchdown and red-zone trip boosts the chances for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends and even kickers to deliver starter-worthy numbers. 

This week’s slate offers several matchups with enticing totals. A handful of contests stand out as potential fantasy goldmines, making them worth targeting when finalizing lineups. Below are the games, along with some included fantasy football analysis and advice. 

*Over/under totals obtained from FanDuel Sportsbook* 

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (O/U: 48.5)

Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have matched up against each other five times, including the regular season and postseason. All but one have resulted in 51 combined points being scored, and even the most recent game, in 2024, resulted in a combined 47 points. Patrick Mahomes has passed for 14 touchdowns and just three interceptions in those five head-to-head games. Lamar Jackson has historically struggled against the Chiefs, accounting for six passing touchdowns and three interceptions. However, he’s rushed for nearly 480 yards and three touchdowns in the five games. 

Both QBs are locked-in starts. Derrick Henry remains a must-start, but Isiah Pacheco doesn’t receive enough volume and should be benched. Zay Flowers’ role as Lamar’s go-to target makes him the top receiver play, while Kansas City’s Xavier Worthy (if active) and Hollywood Brown are viable flexes in a likely pass-heavy script. Tyquan Thornton is a deep-league option with his ability to make splash plays, but Rashod Bateman’s inconsistent usage keeps him off the radar. Overall, this matchup offers plenty of fantasy juice, but most of it comes from the stars and top receiving options.  

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws to a teammate, Sunday, September 21, 2025. | Kevin R. Wexler-NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Quarterbacks:

Lamar Jackson - Must Start 

Patrick Mahomes - Start 

Running Backs:

Derrick Henry - Must Start 

Isiah Pacheco - Bench 

Kareem Hunt - Bench  

Justice Hill - Bench 

Wide Receivers:

Zay Flowers - Start 

Xavier Worthy (Q) - Flex Consideration 

Hollywood Brown - Flex Consideration 

Tyquan Thornton - Flex Consideration 

Rashod Bateman - Bench 

DeAndre Hopkins - Bench 

Juju Smith-Schuster - Bench  

Tight Ends:

Travis Kelce - Start 

Mark Andrews - Bench 

Isaiah Likely (Q) - Deeper League Consideration 

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams (O/U: 48.5)

Both the Colts and Rams enter this matchup with solid secondaries but aren’t immune to big plays, which helps explain the 48.5 over/under. Daniel Jones established himself as a strong starter with his play through the first three weeks, particularly in his rushing ability. Matthew Stafford is more of a superflex or deeper-league option given his reliance on volume and zero rushing upside. Jonathan Taylor is a must-start every week, especially after his three-touchdown performance last week. Kyren Williams’ consistent workload makes him a strong play, while Blake Corum remains an elite handcuff rather than a start consideration with his touchdown dependency.  

At receiver, Puka Nacua is locked into lineups, with Davante Adams and Michael Pittman Jr. both set to thrive in a likely back-and-forth script. Josh Downs carries flex appeal in PPR formats, but Alec Pierce is better left on benches with his health and usage in question. At tight end, Tyler Warren is now a must-start with his expanding role. Overall, expect the fantasy production here to funnel through the stars, making this a matchup you’ll want exposure to.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) leaves the field after the game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Quarterbacks:

Daniel Jones - Start 

Matthew Stafford - Superflex/Deeper League Start 

Running Backs:

Jonathan Taylor - Must Start 

Kyren Williams - Start 

Blake Corum - Bench 

Wide Receivers:

Puka Nacua - Must Start 

Davante Adams - Start 

Michael Pittman Jr. - Start 

Josh Downs - Flex Consideration 

Alec Pierce (Q) - Bench 

Tight Ends:

Tyler Warren - Must Start 

Tyler Higbee - Bench 

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (O/U: 47.5)

This matchup carries a 47.5 total and features two offenses capable of explosive plays, making it a spot where fantasy points can pile up quickly. Dak Prescott is a low-end start against a tough Packers pass defense, especially with his top receiver, Ceedee Lamb, sidelined. Jordan Love is a strong start as Dallas’ defense is among the leaders in fantasy points awarded to opposing quarterbacks after Russell Wilson passed for 450 yards and three touchdowns in Week two, and Caleb Williams threw for nearly 300 yards and four touchdowns this past week. 

In the backfield, Javonte Williams and Josh Jacobs both see enough volume to trust in lineups. George Pickens is the top receiver option in this game, with Matthew Golden and Romeo Doubs offering flex appeal against the struggling Cowboys' secondary. Jalen Tolbert and Dontavion Wicks haven’t earned enough consistent usage to warrant starting consideration. At tight end, both Tucker Kraft and Jake Ferguson are viable plays. Ferguson, in particular, is a strong play as the Packers rank in the top five for most fantasy points awarded to tight ends per game. Overall, expect this game to be competitive, with the most reliable fantasy production coming from the featured backs and a few passing-game pieces.

Sep 21, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver George Pickens (3) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Chicago Bears during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Quarterbacks:

Dak Prescott - Low-End Start 

Jordan Love - Start 

Running Backs:

Javonte Williams - Start 

Josh Jacobs - Start

Myles Sanders - Bench 

Jaydon Blue - Bench  

Wide Receivers:

George Pickens - Start 

Matthew Golden - Flex Consideration 

Romeo Doubs - Flex Consideration  

Jalen Tolbert - Bench 

Dontavion Wicks - Bench 

Tight Ends:

Tucker Kraft - Start 

Jake Ferguson - Start 

Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders (O/U: 47.5)

These two teams enter this matchup with one win apiece, but don’t let that deter you from targeting this game from a fantasy football perspective. Through three games, the Bears and Raiders rank in the top 10 in yards allowed per game. The Bears also surrender the third-most points per game (31.3), and the Raiders surrender the 11th-most (24.7).  Caleb Williams and Geno Smith are both start-worthy given the matchup. 

Ashton Jeanty is the safest play in the backfield with his consistent workload despite the Raiders’ struggling O-line. D’Andre Swift is more of a flex consideration given his inefficiencies. At receiver, Rome Odunze stands out as the strongest option, while DJ Moore, Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker find their way into lineups due to their recent success. Luther Burden III is coming off a big game in his last outing, but he should stay on the bench until he proves to have consistent production. At tight end, Brock Bowers should be locked in as a start, while Colston Loveland’s limited and recent injury has him as a bench stash. Overall, expect offensive production on both sides, with Odunze, Jeanty and the quarterbacks carrying the most upside.

Sep 21, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) gestures after throwing a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Quarterbacks:

Caleb Williams - Start 

Geno Smith - Start 

Running Backs:

D’Andre Swift - Flex Consideration 

Ashton Jeanty - Start 

Wide Receivers:

Jakobi Meyers - Start 

Tre Tucker - Flex Consideration  

DJ Moore - Flex Consideration 

Rome Odunze - Start 

Luther Burden III - Bench 

Tight Ends:

Brock Bowers - Start 

Colston Loveland (Q) - Bench 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U: 44.5)

This game has a modest scoring total, but it will feature two offenses with many fantasy-relevant players. Jalen Hurts is a locked-in option every week thanks to his dual-threat ability, even when the Eagles offense shies away from the passing game. Baker Mayfield is also a viable start given Tampa’s passing volume and elite pass catchers. In the backfield, Saquon Barkley and Bucky Irving are must-starts based on workload and scoring opportunities. 

At receiver, A.J. Brown is automatic, and DeVonta Smith, Mike Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka should all be confidently started as well. Chris Godwin (if active) carries flex appeal, but his health and an anticipated pitch count limit his ceiling. Dallas Goedert remains a low-end start at tight end, while Cade Otton is better left on the bench. Even with a lower projected total, there’s no shortage of trustworthy fantasy options in this game.  

Sep 21, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) reacts against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Quarterbacks:

Jalen Hurts - Must Start 

Baker Mayfield - Start 

Running Backs:

Saquon Barkley - Must Start 

Bucky Irving - Must Start 

Rachaad White - Bench 

Wide Receivers:

A.J. Brown - Must Start 

DeVonta Smith - Start 

Mike Evans - Start 

Emeka Egbuka - Start 

Chris Godwin (Q) - Flex Consideration 

Tight Ends:

Dallas Goedert - Low-End Start  

Cade Otton - Bench