Ravens vs. Dolphins Projections & Odds Featuring Lamar Jackson, De’Von Achane, More
The football market and fantasy leagues felt slighted by Lamar Jackson not playing last Sunday. Looking ahead, a short week was the deciding factor in sitting him for one more game. That same scenario could play out this next week for Brock Bowers. Baltimore (2-5) broke their four-game losing streak while moving one game closer to the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3), who lost to the Packers.
The Miami Dolphins (2-6) may have saved their head coach's job last week, with a well-executed game plan on both sides of the ball against the Atlanta Falcons.
TV: Prime Video
Time: 8:15 PM EST
Vegas Line (DraftKings): Baltimore -7.5 points
Over/Under: 51.5
To help game managers set their rosters in Week 8, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for the Ravens and Dolphins.
Week 9 Baltimore Ravens TNF Fantasy Football Projections
After missing three games, DraftKings set Lamar Jackson’s over/under at 234.5 passing yards (-113o). Baltimore only threw the ball 75 times over his first three starts, while gaining 9.6 yards per pass attempt. Jackson averaged 240.7 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. Twelve of his 54 completions (22.2%) gained 20 yards or more.
Miami’s defense is about league average in passing yards allowed (1,692), partly due to its weakness defending the run. Quarterbacks are gaining 7.6 yards per pass attempt, a positive side for the Ravens’ deep passing game.
The prop market expects Jackson to pass for over 1.5 touchdowns (-198o). I have him projected for 252 passing yards and two passing TDs.
Here’s a look at Miami’s opposing quarterback passing stats this year:
- Daniel Jones (272/1)
- Drake Maye (230/2)
- Josh Allen (213/3)
- Justin Fields (226/1)
- Bryce Young (198/2)
- Justin Herbert (264/2)
- Dillon Gabriel (116/0)
- Kirk Cousins (173/0)
Only Justin Herbert attempted more than 31 passes vs. their defense.
Jackson has dominated the Dolphins’ defense in the past (2023 – 321/5 with 35 rushing yards, 2022 – 318/3 with nine runs for 119 yards and one more score, and 2019 – 324/5).
Over the last two games at home without Lamar Jackson behind center, Henry ran the ball better (24/122/0 and 21/71/2), with Baltimore gaining 296 and 355 offensive yards. He’s rushed for fewer than 90 yards in five of his seven games, compared to eight of his 19 starts in 2024.
The Dolphins rank 30th in rushing yards allowed (980), with running backs gaining 5.1 yards per carry. Three backs gained over 89 rushing yards.
- James Cook (19/108/1)
- Rico Dowdle (23/206/1)
- Kimani Vidal (18/124)
For Henry to reach the over side of his rushing prop, he’ll need close to 20 rushes or hit on a long rush. The first requires the Ravens to play from the lead, but Lamar Jackson does steal some of Baltimore's rushing attempts. I have Henry projected to run the ball 21 times for 116 yards, with a winning chance at scoring (150%). DraftKings set his over/under at 17.5 rushing attempts (-130o). Henry is -230 to score an anytime touchdown.
Last week, the Dolphins revamped their offensive game plan, leading to quicker passes and more touches (44) for their running backs. Game score allowed Miami to run more while also capping the ceiling of De’Von Achane’s rushing attempts if repeated with fewer runs. Their top back has an over/under of 57.5 rushing yards (-113o), with a -150 line for anytime touchdown.
The Ravens’ defense has underperformed expectations against the run (4.8 yards per rush). They rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed (798), with four players rushing for more than 60 yards.
- Quinshon Judkins (10/61)
- David Montgomery (12/151/2)
- Ja’Marr Gibbs (22/67/2)
- Nick Chubb (11/61/1)
Other than Gibbs, no other running back has had more than 13 carries, which is close to Achane’s attempt over/under (12.5).
Week 9 Miami Dolphins TNF Fantasy Football Projections
Over his eight starts, Tua Tagovailoa passed for 205 yards or fewer in six matchups. His best success came in Week 2 (315/2) when Tyreek Hill was still roaming the field. Despite the appearance of an uptick game (205/4) last week, he relied on quick passes to move the chains, which plays more into the Ravens’ hands in this matchup. Baltimore gets in trouble when quarterbacks attack them downfield, which they try to overcome with a strong pass rush.
DraftKings set Tagovailoa’s over/under at 216.5 (-113u). This year, he’s averaging 190 passing yards. Prop betters expected him to throw fewer than 1.5 touchdowns (-142u).
The Ravens’ defense is allowing 260 passing yards per game, with quarterbacks averaging 36.2 passing attempts.
- Josh Allen (394/2)
- Joe Flacco (199/1)
- Jared Goff (202/1)
- Patrick Mahomes (270/4)
- C.J. Stroud (244/4)
- Matthew Stafford (181/1)
- Caleb Williams (285/0)
Baltimore will slow down the clock with the run game, and Miami tends to need many plays to score. I expect Tagovailoa to struggle in this game, despite gaining some passing momentum in Week 8.
I had Zay Flowers rated high last week with Lamar Jackson expected back. He played well (7/63 on nine targets), considering Baltimore only threw the ball 22 times for 186 yards. The Ravens’ top wideout has gained over 70 yards receiving in four of his seven starts while having a floor of six catches in five starts.
Flowers is +115 to score an anytime touchdown at DraftKings, with an over/under line of 68.5 receiving yards (-114o).
Miami has allowed the second-lowest total of receiving yards (861) to wide receivers. Wideouts are gaining only 11.2 yards per catch. Four players gained over 60 receiving yards.
- Michael Pittman (6/80/1)
- Garrett Wilson (6/82/1)
- Tetairoa McMillan (6/73)
- Ladd McConkey (7/100/1)
Jaylen Waddle stepped up his game with Tyreek Hill injured, giving the fantasy market memories of his first three years (104/1,015,6, 75/,1356/8, and 72/1,014/4) in the NFL. He gained over 90 yards in three (6/110/1, 6/95, and 5/99/1) of his last four games.
DraftKings set his over/under at 63.5 receiving yards (-114o), with a +140 line to score an anytime touchdown.
Baltimore sits 19th in receiving yards allowed (1,114) to wide receivers, with them gaining 11.4 yards per attempt. Five wideouts gained 64 receiving yards or more.
- Keon Coleman (8/112/1)
- Khalil Shakir (6/64)
- Amon-Ra St. Browns (7/77/1)
- Xavier Worthy (5/83)
- Christian Kirk (4/64)
- Rome Odunze (7/114)
Waddle should see plenty of targets in this game, and he has the skill set to hit on a big play. Miami has two offensive weapons (Waddle and Achane), who will command the ball in this game.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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