Fantasy Football Week 3 Quarterback Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Joe Burrow vs. Trevor Lawrence
Through two games, Joe Burrow is enduring a strugglesome start. The Bengals signal-caller is the QB20 in fantasy football. He is not alone in those early woes as a non-QB1-rated player. Trevor Lawrence joins, ranked as the QB17 after a flat Week 2. Fantasy managers now wonder which, if any, may return to QB1 status in Week 3 fantasy football?
All EPA per Play Data can be accessed here.
The Case of Joe Burrow
Burrow's season is off to a start of 230.5 yards, 2.0 touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions per game. His completion percentage is 68.2% on 33 attempts per game. Burrow's PFF rating is 75.5, or 13th among all quarterbacks.
In a deeper dive, Burrow is purely average by NFL standards. His EPA per Dropback is minus-0.03, or 23rd in the NFL. Nonetheless, fantasy managers ought not to panic. A larger sample size is needed, and without any drastic reactions to his start, Burrow shall be just fine.
In Week 3, the Bengals will head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. Burrow is my QB2 of the week. He projects to lead all passers in attempts with 37.6. Burrow is also expected to lead all passers in yards (267.1) and touchdowns (1.8). Historically, the Bengals are a high-pass-rate team, and that is exactly what is expected in Week 3.
Pittsburgh's defense will still offer a tougher matchup. The team rates 1st in Pass EPA/Play Allowed through two games. However, I believe that volume trumps all. Especially with the dynamic duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, I do think Burrow can transcend the matchup.
All-time, Burrow is averaging 264.9 yards and 2.1 touchdowns per game against the Steelers. On only 58 combined pass attempts over their two 2025 matchups, Burrow averaged 192.5 yards per game with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception.
The Case of Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence's season is off to a start of 217 yards, 2.0 touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions per game. His completion percentage is 67.3% with a PFF grade of 76.6, or 11th in the NFL.
In EPA per Dropback, Lawrence has a rating of plus-0.27. That ranks 8th in the NFL, showcasing that Lawrence is indeed playing as a top-12 quarterback by most estimates.
Week 3 has Jacksonville hosting the New England Patriots. Their coverage unit entered 2026 with top-5 expectations. That said, they remain with a Pass EPA/Play Allowed ranking of 2nd in the NFL.
Lawrence's projection placed him at QB13 for the week. He is expected to have 31.6 passing attempts, 20.4 completions, 224.1 passing yards, 1.4 touchdowns, and 0.6 interceptions. Jacksonville is a more balanced offense in terms of pass-to-run ratio. Their pass-rate expectation is, in fact, below league average at 55.0%.
Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Joe Burrow vs. Trevor Lawrence
Both quarterbacks have very similar statistics through two games. They are on similar offenses in terms of weekly scoring upside. They both are in terribly difficult matchups. In that case, I side with the projections.
Burrow has a higher pass rate. Higher by a lot, in fact, with a 63.5% expected pass rate compared to Lawrence's 55.5%.
Burrow also has just as good a receiving corps with Chase and Higgins, Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., and Jakobi Meyers.
The Week 3 projections put Burrow 11 spots higher than Lawrence. Volatile outcomes they could be; the ceiling and floor of each player are at about the same standard deviation. I think Burrow is more likely to finish in the QB1 range in Week 3 than Lawrence.
More Fantasy Sports On SI News:
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.