Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Is Deshaun Watson Better Than Aaron Rodgers?
Deshaun Watson has been breaking onto the scene this season, currently the QB10 in fantasy football. The Browns are 2-1, and maybe Todd Monken has things figured out? On the other side of the division, Aaron Rodgers showed age is a number in a huge Week 4. In a SuperFlex format, both are viable starts, but today I debate: which one is better?
All Defensive EPA Metrics are per draftwithdoug.com
The Case of Deshaun Watson
Watson has 82 passing attempts, 56 completions, 587 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He has added another 24 rushing attempts for 105 yards, but with zero touchdowns and one fumble. Nonetheless, Watson arrives at QB10 in fantasy football.
A few other advanced metrics prove that while Watson isn't elite in 2026, he is neither average nor elite. Watson ranked 14th in Adjusted Completion Percentage and 15th in EPA per Dropback. Much credit goes to his pass-blocking, which gave Watson 3.07 seconds on average per dropback and a 7th-best pass-block win rate.
In Week 4, the Browns face the Steelers on Thursday Night Football. They rank 7th-best in Defensive Pass EPA Allowed per Play, but 21st in Defensive Total EPA Allowed per Play. My own power rating is quite high on Pittsburgh, ranking it the 2nd-best defense, 1st in pass rush, and 17th in coverage.
My Week 4 projection lands Watson as the QB19 in fantasy football. He foresees 27.1 passing attempts, 17.5 completions, 192.4 passing yards, 0.91 passing touchdowns, and 0.56 interceptions.
The Case of Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers' season has been a tale of many different games. In Week 2, Rodgers was dismantled, throwing for 187 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and an interception after taking four sacks. In Week 3, Rodgers took down the Bengals for 292 yards, 3 touchdowns, and one interception.
Over the entire season, Rodgers has 113 passing attempts, 66 completions, 700 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Of course, Rodgers does not run the ball at all, which limits any top-15 viability that may be designated Rodgers-way.
2026 has been mostly below league average for Rodgers. He ranks 25th in adjusted completion percentage and 27th in EPA per Dropback. Rodgers has the 21st-best Average Time to Throw and 22nd-best Pressure-to-Sack Rate.
The Steelers are on the other end of Thursday Night Football in Cleveland. The Browns rank 12th in Defensive Pass EPA per Play Allowed and 15th in Defensive Total EPA per Play Allowed. My power rating, however, ranks the Browns as the NFL's 28th-ranked defense, 14th in pass rush and 31st in coverage.
In Week 4, Rodgers is projected as my QB28. He is projected for 31.9 passing attempts, 20.6 completions, 226.2 passing yards, 1.24 touchdowns, and 0.47 interceptions.
SuperFlex Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Deshaun Watson vs. Aaron Rodgers
A debate like this with lower-end quarterbacks comes down to one key projection: upside. Who has more of it? I would say Watson, by a landslide.
The matchup is definitely more difficult for Watson. When it comes to a tough pass rush, it forces a quarterback to scramble, which can always result in positive fantasy output. Watson has 12 scrambles on the season for 88 yards, or 7.3 yards per scramble. He ranks 15th of 28 quarterbacks in PFF Rush Grade.
Watson also gets the home game here, where Huntington Bank Stadium has the 5th-best home field advantage in 2025 and the 6th-best over the past five seasons. I would expect those Week 1 boo's headed Watson's way to be gone amid the >.500 team record, facing a division rival.
To cap it all off, Watson has a better supporting cast. Denzel Boston is the WR18 in fantasy football, far better than all rookies. KC Concepcion is a top rookie draft pick. Jerry Jeudy and 2025 phenom Harold Fannin Jr. add to the arsenal. Much better than DK Metcalf and his recent struggles, plus Michael Pittman Jr., who has two games as a Steeler and has been in the training room heavily over the past month.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.