Fantasy Managers Should Explore Trading Chuba Hubbard Amid Jonathan Brooks' Return

As a fantasy manager of many teams, I can tell you with confidence that this game isn't about the 'now.' It is about what is to come. We may indulge in our success stories, but the NFL is always changing. Your dreams can become nightmares in one week.

I emphasize that you always keep tabs on your players' schedules. Do they have a depth chart threat that could affect their usage? What key factors may affect your players' rankings? I know it is a lot of work, but that is where I will come to help. I ran the data and found Chuba Hubbard to be a prime sell-high candidate as of Week 10.

The Case of Chuba Hubbard

Among all NFL running backs, Hubbard ranks third in Rush Share (Percentage of Total Team Rushing Attempts). Only two ball-carriers have recorded a higher volume this season: Jahmyr Gibbs and Kenneth Walker III.

The volume has helped Hubbard rank as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. He averages about 17 rushing attempts, 78 rushing yards, and 0.63 rushing touchdowns per game. In the receiving game, Hubbard is adding nearly 4 targets, 3 receptions, 21 receiving yards, and 0.25 touchdowns per game.

Hubbard currently ranks 4th in PFF Rushing Grade and 5th in EPA per Rushing Attempt. With an ADP of RB34 before the season started, Hubbard has delivered like a better-than-almost-any draft pick in fantasy football. But I see great reason to sell him at a peak stock now.

Why Should You Sell Chuba Hubbard?

First, I don't think Hubbard will start to flop for fantasy owners. Rather, I think his stock has peaked, and you can profit with a well-executed trade.

In Week 10, Hubbard competes against the New Orleans Saints, who rank worst in Fantasy Points Allowed to Running Backs. After that, the schedule toughens up.

In Weeks 11-13, the final playoff push, Hubbard's average opponent in Fantasy Points Allowed to Running Backs is 9th-toughest in the NFL. Week 14 is easy against the Saints, but then in Weeks 15-17, most leagues' playoff weeks, Hubbard's average opponent ranking is again 9th-toughest in the NFL.

Hubbard also faces a threat from his backup, Jonathan Brooks. The Panthers' RB2 has been injured since Week 2 after a promising preseason. On Wednesday, November 11, Brooks returned to full practice for the first time in about two months.

In August, ADP ranked Brooks 39th among running backs, seven spots behind Hubbard. It was often reported that Brooks would have a go at the RB1 job, but that effort was cut short due to that groin injury.

At this point in the season, I definitely wouldn't expect Brooks to get the RB1 job. But he should expect a fair share of this offense, and definitely more than AJ Dillon and Trevor Etienne, who combined for 27 rushing attempts over eight games.

Whether Brooks gets 15% or up to 35% of this rushing offense, it will cut into Hubbard's volume. That reduction will push him out of RB1 range, and that is worth selling.

The Saints, an easy matchup, offer a prime window to shop Hubbard. He can net profitable returns through these prime buy-low candidates, in my estimation:

Jonathan Taylor: Set for an anticipated post-trade-deadline refresh with a high workload.
Bhayshul Tuten: Advanced metrics as good as Hubbard's, and on a better offense. A Week 9 struggle created a false regression narrative; he did score a touchdown.
Rashee Rice: Has top-10 WR upside, 15 targets over the last two games; plays for an offense capable of being the NFL's best, and is now healthy.
Zay Flowers: Jacoby Brissett is a gunslinger and might bring out the best play in Flowers this season.

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