Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Fantasy Basketball Stock Booms on Heat, Busts on Celtics

A trade that includes Giannis Antetokounmpo appears inevitable, with the Heat and Celtics as the final reported landing spots.

Jan 9, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dunks for the basket against the Los Angeles Lakers during the first half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Where is Giannis Antetokounmpo playing basketball next season? That question is hot on the scene at this very moment. Shams Charania of ESPN reports that a deal is going to almost certainly happen before the NBA Draft on Tuesday, June 23. It appears to be a fierce battle between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics. One of those two teams appears inevitable to acquire Giannis in a matter of hours, as of noon on June 22.

Fantasy Basketball Impact of Giannis to the Heat?

Prediction markets tend to be the most accurate way to project an outcome. It compiles the opinions of all invested parties, whether sharp or fan-hyped. The current market on Kalshi projects Giannis 38% likely to be traded to the Heat, as of Noon on June 22.

The rumors going around imply that Tyler Herro would be the most likely outgoing party. That would have the Heat parting ways with their No. 3 player in usage rate, which Herro played to a 24.8% rate over 31.3 minutes per game.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. is the No. 2 most likely outgoing player in such a deal. The Bucks will look to add two offensive stars, with Herro and Jaquez Jr. leading the way in Milwaukee. Jaquez Jr.'s 2025-26 usage rate was 21.6% over 28.3 minutes per game.

Other than these two players, Kel'el Ware is seemingly gone, adding another rim-protector alongside Myles Turner in Milwaukee. The rest of the implied trade details will be unknown, but presumably include multiple first-round picks.

Such a trade will put Giannis into a prime role with the Heat. They part ways with two of their highest-usage-rate players. Giannis will run dominantly as a 30% or spredominantly usage-rate asset. He would be supported by Bam Adebayo and an array of complementary, young options, including Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jaukicionis, and Simone Fontecchio.

In Milwaukee, Herro and Jaquez Jr. could see increased roles, but on a less impressive basketball team, which would offset any value and make them volatile, risky fantasy basketball weapons.

Verdict: Giannis Antetokounmpo is a top-5 player in 2026-27 fantasy basketball with a high-floor.

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Fantasy Basketball Impact of Giannis to the Celtics?

A trade that would send Giannis to the Boston Celtics will be centered around Jaylen Brown. Such a deal puts Brown in a position to lead the NBA in usage rate legitimately.

Outside of Giannis, the Bucks have no weapons capable of commanding a high usage rate. Brown played to a usage rate of 35.1% in 2025-26, and did so with Jayson Tatum active for 16 games, plus either key weapons being available, including Payton Pritchard, Anfernee Simons, and Derrick White.

Brown on the Bucks could rank as a top-10 player in fantasy basketball. His usage commands it. For comparison, Brown was the SF4 in 2025-26 fantasy basketball and the 17th player overall.

As for Giannis, he will share the court with Jayson Tatum. That limits Giannis' upside compared to his potential role on either the Bucks or the Heat.

Tatum played to a 29% usage rate in 2026. One of the NBA's best scorers, Giannis, cannot command every single possession. The likely outcome is that Giannis and Tatum share usage as much as Tatum shared it with Brown. That 2025-26 duo had a 29% and 35%usage rates of, respectively.

Final Verdict: Giannis had limited upside, but remains a top-10 fantasy basketball player with a high-floor.