Fantasy Football Injury Impact: Jaylen Waddle’s Possible Absence Offers More Risk Than Reward
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Jaylen Waddle's season has continued to be a struggle. He appeared to injure his chest/shoulder in Week 7 against the Arizona Cardinals. His Week 8 status is now very much up in the air. The following proposes what the Broncos offense could look like if Waddle were out.
Fantasy Football Impact
Waddle accounts for a 24% target share, 20% of team receptions, and about 22% of team receiving yards. He also has 3 of 23 team red zone targets. He plays about 40% of his snaps from the slot and the rest out wide, so Waddle's absence doesn't benefit just one wide receiver. The targets would be divided among multiple pass-catchers.
The good news is that the Broncos have a very deep offensive depth chart. 14 Broncos have caught at least one pass this season, including six different wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton runs more routes than any Bronco, so he will be the biggest beneficiary. Troy Franklin has run a route on about 54% of passing situations over the past three weeks. I can imagine his rate goes north of 70% in this scenario, starting alongside Sutton.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey currently runs routes about 25% of the time, and he would likely rise above 40%. Nearly the same goes for Marvin Mims Jr.
The following are raw ranking projections if Waddle were out. They are matchup-agnostic and purely based on usage and the Broncos' overall offensive rating.
- Bo Nix: QB20
- RJ Harvey: RB30
- JK Dobbins: RB35
- Jonah Coleman: RB55
- Courtland Sutton: WR30*
- Troy Franklin: WR50
- Marvin Mims Jr.: WR60
- Lil'Jordan Humphrey: WR75
- Evan Engram: TE18
*Indicates must-start status.
It's hard to trust a whole ton of Broncos on any given Sunday. As stated earlier, they spread the ball around a ton. While 14 players have caught a pass, only 6 players have caught double-digit passes over seven games.
In fantasy football, Waddle is the Broncos' No. 1 wide receiver, ranked WR36. Sutton has been nothing special as WR69, and that is all for the top-100. Even at running back, neither Harvey nor Dobbins are in the top-25, and with Jonah Coleman back in the lineup, that further reduces either player's ceiling.
Sutton will often be the hot route in passing situations, so much so that he is a starter. But that is all for wide receivers. Anyone else is a long shot and an extremely risky fantasy football option.
Jaylen Waddle Injury Update
The Broncos have not yet confirmed the details of Waddle's injury. It is listed as a "chest" injury, but it may be deeper. Waddle might have strained or even subluxed his shoulder or AC joint. This is all speculative until the Broncos have more information.
As of now, there is no timeline for Waddle's absence. As a fantasy manager, I would err on the side of caution. If needed, attack the waiver wire to add insurance. Click here to see the top waiver-wire targets for Week 8.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.