Belmont at Saratoga Late Pick 5 Strategy for Friday, July 4

Racing is back at The Spa for this special July 4th racing festival. Friday’s holiday card features a star-studded Late Pick 5 sequence, highlighted by three graded stakes races, including the prestigious Grade 1 Belmont Derby. Here’s how I’ll be attacking the Late Pick 5:

Race 7: 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt – Maiden Special Weight

This maiden special weight affair is loaded with what looks like a very talented field, featuring many first- and second-time starters with iconic connections and pedigrees. My top selection is the #1-1A entry of Worthy Charge and Rebellious Type.

The first part of the entry, #1 Worthy Charge, is a first-time starter for Chad Brown and St. Elias Stables. Dylan Davis gets the mount on this 3-year-old son of Liam’s Map, who has been working well and has the pedigree to fire at first asking.

The latter part, #1A Rebellious Type, goes out for trainer Amelia Green and Spendthrift Farm. Hall of Famer John Velazquez will be aboard this son of Into Mischief, looking to land the winner’s circle in his debut.

My second choice in here is #6 Fort Nelson for trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado. The Godolphin homebred colt finished fourth in his debut, a maiden special weight at Belmont at Aqueduct last October. He broke awkwardly in that one and was then rushed up to press the pace, eventually fading down the stretch. I think he should come into this one fresh, and while he may need a race off the long layoff, I’ll hope he’s tuned up and ready to fire first off the bench.

My third and final pick in here is #3 Shadow Banking. He finished a charging third in a MSW at BAQ back in May. He was more than 10 lengths behind at the start of the far turn and closed well. Hopefully, he’ll be a bit more forwardly placed in this one. He’ll be hoping for a hot pace up front and to be coming from the clouds to run them all down. This is also a connections play for me, with the highly successful trio of Flavien Prat, Chad Brown, and Klaravich Stables teaming up on this 3-year-old son of Maclean’s Music.

Top Choice: #1-1A Worthy Charge/Rebellious Type
Use: #6 Fort Nelson, #3 Shadow Banking

Race 8: G3 Manila Stakes

#4 Zulu Kingdom will be my top pick and single, representing the proven Saratoga team of Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables. He comes in off a G1 victory in the American Turf at Churchill Downs in May, where he tracked the pace and drew off late with ease. I’ll be hoping he gets a similar trip in this Grade 3.

I also really liked his race off the layoff in the Columbia Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs back in March. He dueled with a hot pace up front and was still able to hold off Reagan’s Wit gamely, getting the win by a neck. I think the mile is this colt’s preferred distance, he’s improving off two straight wins, and in my opinion, is clearly the horse to beat.

I’m slightly concerned about leaving #6 Uncatalyzed off the ticket, especially since I usually like to play the “other Chad Brown” angle, and he looks like he’ll have the earliest speed in the race. Still, I’ll hope he gets hooked up early, setting the table for Zulu Kingdom to sit the ideal stalking trip.

Top Choice: #4 Zulu Kingdom

Race 9: G1 Belmont Derby

This year’s $750,000 Grade 1 Belmont Derby features a field of seven after the scratch of #8 Flying Mohawk. My top pick is #4 New Century for Brendan Walsh and Oisin Murphy. He was a good second to Zulu Kingdom in the American Derby, finishing with interest but lacking the same trip. I’ll hope he saves ground and finishes with a strong late kick.

My second choice is a price play in #1 Tank. Speed was holding well on the turf Thursday, and on paper, Tank looks like the lone front-runner. With Luis Saez aboard, it’s likely he’ll be loose on the lead and try to wire the field. Saez will have options—and whether he backs it down to lull them to sleep on the backstretch or opens up by multiple lengths early, his early speed will be key. If he’s able to carve out soft fractions, he’s very live at a morning line of 12-1.

My third and final pick is #5 Test Score, who makes plenty of sense in this spot. He finished a close third, just behind New Century, in the American Derby, and looked strong in his win in the G3 Transylvania at Keeneland back in April. He should be able to sit a similar stalking trip just off the pace, much like New Century. I’ll be fading #6 Final Gambit, hoping he takes a good bit of money at the windows and helps boost the value of my top selections.

Top Choice: #4 New Century
Use: #1 Tank, #5 Test Score

Race 10: G2 Suburban Stakes

#4 Locked, with Jose Ortiz riding for Todd Pletcher, is my top pick. He enters off a disappointing fourth-place finish in the G2 Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs, where he was off his game and only picked it up late—finishing well behind stablemate and eventual winner Fierceness. Prior to that, he romped in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap, winning by eight lengths as a heavy 3/5 favorite. While he didn’t beat the toughest field that day, a repeat of that effort would make him very dangerous here.

This race should feature plenty of early speed. I’m hoping for a quick pace and a collapse up front, allowing Locked to sit back and make one big late run.

The #7 Antiquarian will be my second choice. He comes into this race after a second-place finish to Mystik Dan in the G3 Blame Stakes back in late May. He set a new career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 97 that day and looks to be improving with every start. His most likely path to victory is sitting just off an early speed duel up front and then hopefully holding off stablemate Locked late.

Lastly, I will add the #1 Phileas Fogg to the ticket as my final selection. We know Carmouche loves to work his horses out of the gate and put them on the lead. With how the dirt course has played recently in these two-turn races, early speed on the inside has proven to be a good place to be. He may get pressure from the #8 Awesome Aaron, who has the highest early pace rating in the race. If he is able to grab the lead, fend off the other speed, and set decent fractions around the track, he is dangerous at a nice price of 5-1. This is certainly a step up in class, but I’ll take a shot with him as my third pick.

Top Choice: #4 Locked
Use: #7 Antiquarian, #1 Phileas Fogg

Race 11: Harvey Pack Stakes

My top pick in this stakes race is #3 Surveillance, who offers value at 10-1. Early speed is critical in these turf sprints, and this 8-year-old son of Constitution has plenty of it. He’s a versatile runner, handling both dirt and turf surfaces well, and owns the highest early pace rating in the field (119). He’s back on firm turf after contesting the G3 True North over sloppy dirt. His steady Beyers in the 90s make him very competitive here.

My second choice is #9 Bring Theband Home, another early-speed threat. Turf sprints, especially at this 5 1/2-furlong distance, tend to favor those on or near the lead. He’s won at the track and distance, and his 94 Beyer last out at Gulfstream makes him a live contender at 8-1.

My third pick is #5 Outlaw Kid, who returns from a layoff dating back to November 2024. Trainer George Weaver wins at a strong 20% rate off 4+ month layoffs at Saratoga, and I trust he’ll have this 6-year-old son of Violence ready to fire.

Top Choice: #3 Surveillance
Use: #9 Bring Theband Home, #5 Outlaw Kid

The Ticket

$0.50 Late Pick 5 Races 7-11: 1-1A,3,6 / 4 / 1,4,5 / 1,4,7 / 3,5,9 = $40.50