Saratoga Tips, Trends, and Betting Guide
When racing returns to Saratoga, it marks that summer is in full swing and this year, racing fans get an extended meet with more racing. Like last year, the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival was held at Saratoga in early June, due to ongoing renovations at Belmont Park. This year, racing moves north a week early, as Saratoga will play host to the July 4th Racing Festival. That four-day meet will begin July 3 and the traditional meet will begin one week later on July 10. After that week, racing will run Wednesday through Sunday until Sept. 1. The traditional 40-day meet will feature 64 stakes races, 18 of which are Grade 1s, highlighted by the Aug. 2 Whitney and Aug. 23 Travers. Grab your coolers, find your picnic tables, and let’s go over some tips and trends at the Spaaaaaaaa.
📣 For the first time ever, Saratoga will host live racing over Independence Day weekend with the July 4th Racing Festival! Enjoy $1 Carnegie Deli hot dogs, a sunglasses giveaway, live music, stakes racing and more, all weekend long. ⤵️https://t.co/BJ4js4USOG
— NYRA (🗽) (@TheNYRA) June 25, 2025
Jockeys
Despite having arguably the top jockey colony in the country, Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat have been the clear top two recently. Prat picked up his first Saratoga riding title last year. Ortiz and his brother Jose accounted for every riding title from 2015, except for Prat last year and Luis Saez in 2021. Prat is the go-to rider for trainer Chad Brown and the two have won at 23 percent and have hit the board at 57 percent in the last five years at Saratoga. Hall of Famer John Velazquez is the all-time leading jockey at Saratoga and won the most races during Belmont week. Fellow Hall of Famer Joel Rosario is also based at the Spa for the summer and Tyler Gaffalione is expected to join the colony at some point after an injury. Saratoga native Dylan Davis is quickly becoming a force in the colony and Manny Franco is routinely among the leaders in wins in New York. Junior Alvarado, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, is among the many talented riders that call Saratoga home for the summer.
Trainers
In recent years, Chad Brown has been the king of the trainer standings, winning four straight titles and seven overall. Todd Pletcher has amassed 14 training titles, with the most recent coming in 2020. Bill Mott, who won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont this year, is a typical mainstay at Saratoga. Steve Asmussen, North America’s leading trainer, will have several contenders during the meet. Brad Cox’s horses hit the board 65 percent of the time last year, the most among trainers with 50 or more starts. Linda Rice tied with Brown for the title in 2023 and won the title outright in 2009. Miguel Clement, who took over his late father Christophe’s stable, should have a competitive barn, especially in turf races. Other top trainers include Mike Maker, Mark Casse, Saffie Joseph Jr., and Cherie DeVaux.
Betting Trends
Despite being known as the “Graveyard of Favorites,” Saratoga is actually average when it comes to winning favorites. Last year, favorites won at 34.1 percent overall, falling around the country’s average of between 30 and 40 percent. Favorites that were 4-1 or lower hit at 65.3 percent last year and just 10.6 percent of winners were 10-1 or more. Favorites that are below even money hit a 50 percent clip and hit the board 86.8 percent of the time. Claiming races had the lowest percentage of winning favorites last year at 27.1 percent. Turf-route favorites won at 29.4 percent last year, the lowest amongst the different distance/surface races.
Post Positions
Starting with dirt sprints, there wasn’t much of a difference last year but still, inside posts won at a slightly higher percentage than others. One-mile races on dirt out of the Wilson Chute was a different story. Post positions 1-3 won at 60 percent last year and posts 1-6 won at 93 percent. Posts 1-3 won dirt routes at 49 percent last year but it’s important to realize that one-mile dirt races and dirt routes can feature smaller fields. There was no real post advantage in turf sprints last year but outside posts had a bit of an advantage in turf routes. Post 7 or higher won at 43 percent last year. On the inner turf in routes, inside posts had a slight advantage.
Running Styles
It pays to have early speed at the Spa, especially on the dirt. In dirt sprints, horses that were on the lead to three lengths back of the lead at the half-mile pole won 90.6 percent of the time last year. Similarly, 79.3 percent of winners at one mile from the Wilson Chute were in the same position but with a smaller sample size. Dirt routes tend to favor closers a little more but still, horses within three lengths of the lead or on the lead won at 70 percent last year. In turf sprints, run at 5 1/2 furlongs, forward runners did better last year but that changed in turf routes. Turf routes run on the inner turf favored closers, as horses farther back than three lengths won at 56.1 percent last year. Turf routes run on the Mellon turf were similar but a stalking position was best last year. During Belmont week, it appeared that the dirt and turf favored early speed but that could be because of the warm temperatures. It was similar during last year’s Belmont week, with Dornoch winning the Belmont on the lead. However, Sovereignty and Journalism, the one-two runners in this year’s Belmont, came from off the pace.
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An avid horse racing fan and bettor, Michael Smith has developed a career in horse racing media as an editor and writer. A regular at Saratoga Race Course, Michael mainly covers New York racing but follows various other racing across the country and world.