Churchill Downs Late Pick 5 Strategy for Saturday, June 28

Churchill Downs will feature a loaded card on Saturday, including four graded stakes races. The late sequence includes three of those and offers some wide-open and great betting opportunities. Here’s my take on how I’ll be attacking the loaded late Pick 5:

Race 8: Tepin Stakes

This one-mile affair for 3-year-old fillies sets up, in my opinion, as a two-horse race between the Mark Casse-trained Vixen and the Brendan Walsh-trained Lush Lips. Since I see this as a two-horse race, and to keep the ticket budget-friendly, I’ll be making a stand and singling #7 Lush Lips.

She was second in her last two starts—both times only behind Nitrogen. In my opinion, Nitrogen is the best turf filly in training, so not having to face her here is a big plus. Vixen also exits the same race, finishing third behind Lush Lips and Nitrogen. I think Lush Lips can improve again, and I’ll be riding with Walsh and Prat, hoping to kick off this sequence with a single.

#8 Favor to You is an intriguing runner for the SoCal duo of Phil D’Amato and Antonio Fresu. D’Amato ships this filly cross-country after a win in an N1X allowance at Santa Anita on May 23. D’Amato and Fresu are on fire right now. D’Amato won the 2025 Santa Anita Hollywood Meet training title, and Fresu was the leading jockey. If you’ve got the budget and want to toss in another, Favor to You could be a big boost to the payout.

Top Choice: #7 Lush Lips
Use (Optional): #8 Favor to You

Race 9: Grade 3 Kelly’s Landing Stakes

This year’s edition draws a field of eight 3-year-old-and-up sprinters. My top pick is #3 Booth for the Asmussen duo. I loved his effort last out in the Maryland Sprint at Pimlico. Even after a bobbled start, he was able to set the pace and outkick the field all the way to the wire. Booth comes in on a four-race win streak and has really turned a corner in 2025. He’s improved with every start and has run 100+ Beyers in three of his last four.

My second choice is #1 Dr. Venkman, who ships to Kentucky after a runner-up finish in the G3 Triple Bend at Santa Anita. He ran second behind Baffert’s Nysos and posted a solid 97 Beyer.

I’m also using #8 Durante. Jose Ortiz is back aboard after guiding him to a shocker in the G3 Aristides—he won that day at 33-1. We won’t get that price again, but with multiple big names in here, he might still get overlooked on a lot of tickets.

Top Choice: #3 Booth
Use: #1 Dr. Venkman, #8 Durante

Race 10: Grade 2 Wise Dan

The Wise Dan draws a field of nine with some familiar foes. I’m going four-deep in here. My top pick is #7 Brilliant Berti, who just missed last time out to Mercante in the G3 Arlington. He battled all the way to the wire and only lost by a neck. I don’t think he loved being inside on the rail that day, so I’m hoping for a better midpack trip and a chance to turn the tables late.

#4 Mercante is my logical second choice. He’s proven at the distance, over this surface, and he beat a few of these last out, including Brilliant Berti and Lagynos.

#6 Taking Candy is my third choice. Anytime an Ortiz gets aboard a DeVaux horse, I’m intrigued. I’ll draw a line through his last effort in the G1 Turf Classic and hope he runs back to his Fair Grounds win in February.

Last on the ticket is #3 Mi Hermano Ramon. I think the 1 1/16 miles is his best distance, and I like the idea of Glatt shipping cross-country with Fresu hopping aboard.

Top Choice: #7 Brilliant Berti
Use: #4 Mercante, #6 Taking Candy, #3 Mi Hermano Ramon

Race 11: Grade 1 Stephen Foster

This year’s loaded edition of the Stephen Foster features a rematch between 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and third-place finisher Sierra Leone, the first time they've met since that dramatic photo finish beneath the Twin Spires.

While the rematch is the big story, my top pick is another G1 winner: #2 Mindframe for Todd Pletcher. He was the winner in that wild four-horse photo finish on Derby Day in the G1 Churchill Downs Stakes. That race came back strong, with next-out wins by Nysos and Book 'Em Danno. Mindframe’s only two career losses came against Dornoch in the 2024 Belmont and Haskell—both close, and both when he was still maturing. I think he’s turned the corner and has the talent to beat this field.

Next is #1 First Mission, who’s still looking for his first Grade 1 win. He comes off a big performance in the Oaklawn Handicap, where he earned a 109 Beyer. That number is the second-highest in this field, only behind Sierra Leone’s 112 in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Speaking of #4 Sierra Leone, I debated leaving him off the ticket, but he’s just too talented. The pace setup could be tricky, but if they go hot up front, he’ll be flying late in his usual deep-closing style.

Top Choice: #2 Mindframe
Use: #1 First Mission, #4 Sierra Leone

Race 12: American Derby

To close out the sequence, I’m going two-deep. My top pick is #1 Reagan’s Wit for Cherie DeVaux and Jose Ortiz, one of my favorite current trainer/jockey combos. They’re winning at a 24% clip with a positive $1.96 ROI and an ITM rate of 48%. The Authentic colt comes into this race off a win in the James W. Murphy at Pimlico and looks well-spotted here.

#3 Tiztastic is the second choice. He finished 10th in the Kentucky Derby but gets back to his preferred surface here. He was the winner of the G2 Louisiana Derby in March and went 2-for-2 on turf last year.

Top Choice: #1 Reagan’s Wit
Use: #3 Tiztastic

The Ticket

$0.50 Late Pick 5 – Races 8-12
7 / 1,3,8 / 3,4,6,7 / 1,2,4 / 1,3 = $36

Ticket subject to changes with scratches. Will update in the event of any scratched selections.