Saratoga Selections for Wednesday, July 30
Here are some of my top plays for Wednesday’s 9-race program:
Race 2: 7 Furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming, Dirt
Top Pick: #5 Army Gal for Jose Ortiz and Linda Rice. Was fourth last out at this level but shortens up from a mile to today’s 7-furlong distance. I also like the rider change to Jose Ortiz. #1 Stone Smuggler could be a player in here. Comes in off a 7-month layoff but drops significantly in class.
The Bet: $10 Exacta Box 1,5 = $20
Race 4: 1 3/8 Miles, Allowance Optional Claiming, Inner Turf
Top Pick: #1 Otello for Dylan Davis and Miguel Clement. Tries turf for the first time today, but I like seeing Davis back aboard — he was up for the win two starts back. Looks like the speed in the field. If he handles the surface switch, he could wire them at a price. #6 Corruption for Mark Casse and Jose Ortiz is a logical favorite, taking a steep drop from Grade 1 company last out in the Manhattan.
The Bet: $20 to Win on #1 Otello at 6-1 or better
Bonus Bet: $10 Exacta Box 1,6 = $20
Race 6: 5 1/2 Furlongs, Maiden Special Weight, Turf
Top Pick: #8 Blanchett for Manny Franco and Graham Motion. Sire Oscar Performance is 22-for-145 with first-time turf starters (15% winners), the best number in the field. At 8-1, she’s worth a play. #1 Santina for Wesley Ward and Victor Espinoza could be a player as well. Ward is known for having good debut turf runners and is winning at 27% with a 54% ITM rate.
The Bet: $20 to Win on #8 Blanchett
Bonus Bet: $10 Exacta Box 1,8 = $20
Race 8: Johnstone Stakes
Top Pick: #8 Sterling Silver for Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado. Turns back from 1 1/8 miles to 7 furlongs, which suits her well. She’s versatile and can sit just off the pace or come from farther back. Looks well spotted here. #5 My Mane Squeeze is another contender. Has solid back class, including good runs in the G2 Eight Belles and G3 Dogwood. She was a strong third in the G1 Madison at Keeneland in May, and if she runs back to that effort, she’s a major threat.
The Bet: $25 Exacta Box 5,8 = $50
Race 9: 5 1/2 Furlongs, Maiden Claiming, Turf
Top Pick: #2 Kyla’s Kause is a logical top choice. Comes in off a significant layoff but drops out of Maiden Special Weight company into the claiming ranks. Rider change to John Velazquez is a bonus. Tom Morley wins 24% of the time with horses off 180+ day layoffs. #8 Hattie Carroll also returns from a layoff and switches from dirt to turf. She has some turf pedigree and should show early speed. A fair price at 12-1. #5 Fido La Fume tries turf sprinting again and gets a major rider upgrade from Silvera to Irad Ortiz, the meet’s leading jockey.
The Bet: $10 Exacta Key 2 / 5,8 = $20
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Dom Polcino is a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated’s On SI, where he covers all things horse racing. A 2021 graduate of Temple University’s Klein College of Media and Communication, Dom has been betting on sports and horses since 2017. When he’s not glued to the TV and rooting home the final leg of a Pick-5, you can find him cheering on his beloved Philadelphia Phillies or soaking up the sun and fishing in his hometown of Seaside Park, NJ.
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