Saratoga Selections for Saturday, August 16

Here are some of my top plays for Saturday’s 12-race card at the Spa, including thoughts on the featured Grade 1 Alabama Stakes.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs, Maiden Special Weight, Dirt
Top Pick: #4 One More Roller is my top choice in this 2YO New York-bred affair. She’s been working well at Monmouth and gets the red-hot Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard to ride, who is having one of his best meets at the Spa. #6 Belloro makes her second start, this time with blinkers on. Expect her to be sharper out of the gate and closer to the pace.
The Bet: $10 Exacta Box 4,6 = $20

Race 4: 6 Furlongs, Maiden Special Weight, Dirt
Top Pick: I’ll side with experience here and take #6 Tennessee Belle, the only filly with a race under her belt. She finished second in her debut last month. #8 Saratoga Party for Chad Brown and Manny Franco is intriguing at a 10-1 morning line. Her sire Vekoma has hit at 21% with 2YO debut winners, and I like the look of her recent works. Worth a play at that price.
The Bet: $25 to win on #6 Tennessee Belle at 6-5 or better
Bonus Bet: $10 to win on #8 Saratoga Party at 8-1 or better

Race 6: 5 1/2 Furlongs, Maiden Special Weight, Turf
Top Pick: #7 Sadie Earp for Wesley Ward and Frankie Dettori finished 4th in her debut last month, earning a 67 speed figure. With Dettori aboard, expect her to be aggressive out of the gate and try to wire the field. The other Ward runner #2 Santina is a first-time starter out of Maclean’s Music, whose progeny hit at 15% with turf sprinters and 14% with 2YO first-time starters. #3 Keto Drink for Shug McGaughey and Junior Alvarado comes off a 3rd-place debut last month and should improve in this one.
The Bet: $10 to win on #7 Sadie Earp
Bonus Bet: $5 Exacta Key Box 3 / 2,7 = $20

Race 7: 6 1/2 Furlongs, Maiden Special Weight, Dirt
Top Pick: #5 It’s Our Time for Tom Amoss and Luis Saez. His sire Not This Time is hitting at 19% with 2YO first-time starters. Works have been solid, Amoss has had a strong meet, and Saez is a major plus. #6 Cost Effective for the highly successful connections of Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables is 8-1 on the morning line and is by Into Mischief, who produces 16% first-time 2YO winners. #4 Hero Declared has also been working well and looks ready to fire on debut.
The Bet: $3 Trifecta Box 4,5,6 = $18

Race 8: Skidmore Stakes
Top Pick: This turf sprint features multiple entries from specialists George Weaver and Wesley Ward. #2 Sandal’s Song for Weaver and Irad Ortiz Jr. comes off a 3rd place finish at Ascot following a debut win at Gulfstream in May. He should be tough here. Stablemate #4 Tough Critic also ships back to the US from Ascot and will look to rebound after a disappointing effort last out. #1 Schwarzenegger for Ward and John Velazquez makes his debut off sharp works over the Oklahoma turf track. Ward is winning at 28% with 2YOs. #8 Spirit of New York posted a 73 speed figure in his debut, the best in the field. While he steps up from state-bred company, improvement in here would make him a strong contender.
The Bet: $25 to win on #2 Sandal’s Song at 2-1 or better
Bonus Bet: $5 Daily Double 2,4 / 6 = $10

Race 10: Grade 1 Alabama Stakes
Top Pick: As you may have guessed with my bet in the last race, my top pick is #6 La Cara for Mark Casse and Dylan Davis. Can she get the mile and a quarter? That’s the question, but as the likely lone speed in the race, I’ll take the shot and hope she wires them. Her Acorn effort was very impressive, and I’m banking on a repeat. #11 Good Cheer was disappointing in that Acorn, but perhaps she just didn't like the off track that day. She'll get back to a fast track in this one, and if she runs back to her Kentucky Oaks performance, she’s the horse to beat. The other Casse trainee is #4 Nitrogen, who jumps back to dirt after a tough nose loss in the G1 Belmont Oaks. She was game in that effort, battling all the way down the stretch and just getting nailed at the wire by a Fionn who came flying late. Her only prior dirt start was an easy win in the G3 Wonder Again, which came off the turf and ended up being just a three-horse field. If her stellar turf form translates to the dirt, she’s a major player.
The Bet: $25 to win on #6 La Cara
Bonus Bet: $10 Exacta Box 4,6 = $20

Saratoga Selections for Saturday, August 16

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