2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Final Gambit
If you are willing to gamble on a late-developing horse that will be racing on the dirt for the first time, then look no further than 2025 Kentucky Derby longshot Final Gambit.
In this installment of my Respected Money Kentucky Derby horse betting profiles, we will analyze one of the two entrants for trainer Brad Cox.
Kentucky Derby Contenders: Final Gambit
POST NUMBER: 3
ODDS: 30-1
JOCKEY: Luan Machado / TRAINER: Brad H. Cox
RECORD: 4 starts: 2-1-1
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 96
RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (Presser)
CAREER EARNINGS: $520,639
This son of Not This Time and Pachinko profiles as an emerging late-developing performer with a strong pedigree.
Final Gambit Breeding
Sire: Not This Time is a lightly raced horse who finished second in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Not This Time is best known for siring 2022 Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up includes Epicenter.
Dam: Pachinko, a daughter of Tapit, who is best known for siring Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Tapwrit (2017), and Essential Quality (2021) - as well as 2022 Horse of the Year Flightline.
Final Gambit Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements
Jockey Luan Machado will be making his Kentucky Derby debut aboard Final Gambit.
Trainer Brad Cox is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby, fielding 11 entrants in the prestigious race since 2021. Cox, who has one Kentucky Derby win (2021 with Mandaloun, via disqualification) over that span, has two entrants this year in Tappan Street and Final Gambit.
100 points for Final Gambit on the Road to the #KyDerby! 🌹 pic.twitter.com/1OEt7j3jre
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) March 22, 2025
Final Gambit Race History
Final Gambit has a career record of two wins, two runner-ups and two third-place finishes in four career starts.
After failing to find the winner’s circle in his first two career attempts, Final Gambit broke his maiden with a 2 and ¼ length win at Turfway Park in mid-February.
In late March, Final Gambit's first stakes win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) secured him a spot (100 points) in the Kentucky Derby. The late-emerging talent earned a career-best 96 Equibase speed figure from his commanding 3½-length victory over Derby rival Flying Mohawk.
Images of Final Gambit's five-furlong move this morning courtesy of Coady Media: pic.twitter.com/D0UzSUagfF
— Kevin Kerstein (@HorseRacingKK) April 9, 2025
Final Gambit Kentucky Derby Outlook
Oddsmakers currently have Final Gambit listed as a longshot at +2500 in Derby Futures. My projections have Final Gambit likely above 25/1 come post-time due to his unproven dirt form and limited racing experience. Many handicappers who use top betting contenders Journalism and Sovereignty will likely use Final Gambit underneath in exotic wagers (exactas, trifectas and superfectas) to spice up payouts -- mainly due to his strong closing style in a race that could suffer a pace meltdown.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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