Below the Cutline: Playoff Race Tight Heading Into Round of 12

Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

It was the end of the line for the NASCAR Cup Series championship hopes for Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, and Josh Berry last Saturday night in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, which signified the end of the Round of 16 of the Playoffs.

This week, the series heads to the 1.058-mile New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, NH, for the Mobil 1 301, to kick off the Round of 12 of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, and the margin of error will be much thinner for the remaining Playoff contenders.

Standings: NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Grid

Denny Hamlin enters the round as the No. 1 seed in the Round of 12, and while he and the Joe Gibbs Racing team as a whole have had a fevered start to the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, he sits just 26 points above the cutline. In a three-race round, that is not a comfortable margin by any means, and as you work your way down the standings, things get even more uncomfortable really quickly.

Hendrick Motorsports teammates William Byron and Kyle Larson sit second and third, respectively, in the standings, each 24 points ahead of the cutline, while last weekend's race winner, Christopher Bell, ranks fourth, 20 points above the cutline.

Bell is the defending winner at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, so certainly he'll have high hopes of scoring a win to automatically advance to the Round of 8 on Sunday afternoon.

For Ryan Blaney (+19 points), Chase Briscoe (+10), Chase Elliott (+5), and Bubba Wallace (+1), they each have less than 20 points up on the cutline, and there are four more-than-capable drivers sitting just below the cutline, who are ready to strike.

Austin Cindric (1 Point Below the Cutline)

While Austin Cindric is probably the one driver in the Round of 12 that just about everybody is picking to fail to make it to the Round of 8, Cindric has been sneakily fast in 2025. The only knock on Cindric is that weird things continue to happen to take he and the No. 2 Team Penske team out of contention, like the late-race tire rubber fire that broke out on their car last weekend at Bristol.

This weekend, Goodyear will bring the same tire compound to New Hampshire Motor Speedway that was used at Richmond Raceway, and the Clash at Bowman Gray, where Cindric had solid results at both. So, there is reason to expect decent things from Cindric, especially with New Hampshire being the style of track that Team Penske excels at (flat, shorter tracks).

As long as circumstances can keep from biting Cindric and the No. 2 team, there's a chance that Cindric gets off to a much hotter start (not a fire pun, I swear) than many are expecting in the Round of 12. And with the Charlotte Roval ending the round, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him advance to the Round of 8, but it all starts this weekend.

Joey Logano (2 Points Below the Cutline)

Joey Logano, a three-time and defending NASCAR Cup Series champion, heads into New Hampshire Motor Speedway, the site of his first career NASCAR Cup Series win in 2009, just two points outside the cutline.

Logano, Paul Wolfe, and the No. 22 Team Penske team are among the best in the sport at surviving and advancing through the Playoffs, and they come into this weekend's race on a hot streak. Logano, who has just five top-five finishes through the opening 29 races of the season, comes into the Mobil 1 301 on a back-to-back fifth-place finishing streak.

Couple the newfound mometum with the fact that New Hampshire is a great site for Logano, historically, and it starts to feel like the defending series champion will kick off the Round of 12 in great fashion.

The 35-year-old racer has two career wins at the facility and has scored nine top-fives and 14 top-10s over his 26 career starts at 'The Magic Mile'. While Logano has always had chops at New Hampshire, he's begun to turn into one of the most consistent drivers at the track in recent years.

Over his last 14 starts in Loudon, Logano has seven top-fives and 10 top-10 finishes. Expect Logano, who participated in a July Goodyear tire test at this track, to get his Round of 12 off to a solid start this weekend.

Ross Chastain (2 Points Below the Cutline)

It's been an odd season for Ross Chastain, the driver of the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet. When they've been on, they've been really on (see his rally from last to first to win the Coca-Cola 600), and when they've been off, they've been really, really off.

That being said Chastain knows what it takes to make it through the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, evidenced by his runner-up finish in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series championship fight.

However, unlike Logano, Chastain comes into the Round of 12 on a bit of a cool streak. The driver has notched just one top-10 finish (a 10th-place result at Watkins Glen) over his last 10 races. While he was able to do enough to make it out of the Round of 16, it'll take a much better overall effort to make it out of the Round of 12.

All three tracks in the round are places where Chastain has scored top-10 finishes. While Kansas Speedway, the site of next weekend's race, is a track he has won at before, Chastain hasn't had horrible results at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Like Logano, Chastain participated in the July Goodyear tire test at New Hampshire, which bodes well for the driver and team heading into the weekend.

In six career starts at the 1.058-mile oval, Chastain has tallied three top-10 finishes, including back-to-back eighth-place runs at the track in 2021 and 2022. If Chastain, Phil Surgen, and the No. 1 team can come out of the gates with speed this weekend, they could build confidence heading into Kansas next weekend.

If not, Chastain could find himself in a hole after New Hampshire.

Tyler Reddick (3 Points Below the Cutline)

Tyler Reddick, who comes into this round of the Playoffs, three points below the cutline, just feels a bit off this season. Last year, the driver tied a career-high with three victories, and he marched all the way to the Championship 4.

This year, he's still seeking his first win of the season, and aside from a solid runner-up finish at Darlington Raceway, Reddick hasn't looked ready to break through in recent weeks. After a three-race top-10 finishing streak in June and July, Reddick cooled off considerably. Over his last nine races, the driver of the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota has just two top-10 finishes.

That being said, the Round of 12, which contains races at New Hampshire, Kansas Speedway, and the Charlotte Roval could be just what the doctor ordered for Reddick, who has a combined 10 top-10 finishes in 22 starts at the three facilities.

As far as Loudon, Reddick has only finished worse than 13th once (21st in 2022) in five career starts, and he has back-to-back sixth-place efforts at the 1.058-mile track. In addition to Reddick's past success at the track, the Toyota contingent seems to really be hitting its stride, despite Reddick not quite falling in line with that trend just yet.

Perhaps this is the week where we start to see flashes of the No. 45 team like we've seen over the last few years.