Despite Major Points Cushion, Championship 4 Field is By No Means Set
It's officially do or die time. Sunday's XFINITY 500 at Martinsville Speedway, the penultimate event of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series campaign, will end up being the deciding factor in which four drivers have a shot at hoisting the Bill France Cup after the Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway.
There are six drivers still eligible to secure the final two positions in the Championship 4, and they've all had stellar campaigns in the NASCAR Cup Series this season. But, adding an interesting layer to the proceedings, is that all six of these drivers have advanced to the Final Four before, meaning the experience of advancing to the Championship Race won't provide any kind of advantage.
As a result of victories at Las Vegas and Talladega, Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe are the only two drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs that won't be profusely sweating throughout the entire 500-lap short track gauntlet, and for that, they are thankful.
RELATED: What's At Stake, When to Tune In For Martinsville Elimination Races
This season's final elimination event provides a slightly different scenario than the NASCAR Cup Series has seen in the past. Should a non-playoff driver, or one of the four drivers that are currently above the cutline (Hamlin, Briscoe, Kyle Larson, or Christopher Bell) go to Victory Lane on Sunday, then nothing changes, and the Championship 4 goes unchanged.
But, here's the wildcard: If William Byron, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, or Chase Elliott are able to be leading Sunday's event at the completion of the 500th lap (or whenever the checkered flag falls), then that locks them in, and creates a fight-to-the-death between Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell for the final spot in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
Granted, there is some kind of scenario where either Christopher Bell or Kyle Larson retire from Sunday's event extremely early -- before having the opportunity to secure some stage points -- and William Byron, Joey Logano, or Ryan Blaney earn a ton of points and secure themselves a spot in the Championship 4 on points (without a new winner).
There's also one final crazy scenario to consider, and it would require the perfect storm of circumstances. If Christopher Bell AND Kyle Larson falter early in the race, and Byron, Logano, or Blaney get a boatload of points, PLUS one of the four drivers below the cutline find themselves in Victory Lane, then there is a scenario where two drivers from below the cutline could drop both Larson and Bell out of the Championship 4.
1. #19 - Chase Briscoe (LOCKED IN)
There is NOTHING that can stop Chase Briscoe from heading to Phoenix Raceway with a shot at the NASCAR Cup Series championship, after winning the YellaWood 500 at Talladega. It's the first Championship 4 appearance for the Mitchell, Indiana-native who joined Joe Gibbs Racing this season to replace the retiring Martin Truex, Jr.
2. #11 - Denny Hamlin (LOCKED IN)
Is it finally Denny Hamlin's year? The 44-year-old driver is headed to the Championship 4 after a gutsy performance to win the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Like his teammate Chase Briscoe, there is nothing that can happen to stop Hamlin from being in the fight for the championship come Phoenix.
3. #20 - Christopher Bell (+37)
This weekend at Martinsville Speedway, Christopher Bell needs to do two things: Complete all of the laps, and score more points than Kyle Larson. If the Norman, Oklahoma-native is successful in doing those two things, he should find himself in the Championship 4 for the third time in the last four years.
4. #5 - Kyle Larson (+36)
There's a relatively easy path forward for Kyle Larson in the Championship 4, and it requires him to score more points than Christopher Bell this weekend -- that way, even if one of the four drivers below the cutline wins, he's still moving on to the Championship Race at Phoenix with a shot at his second NASCAR Cup Series championship. If a non-playoff driver wins, though, as long as he scores a decent amount of points, he should be protected from his closest competitors, one of which happens to be teammate William Byron.
5. #24 - William Byron (-36)
Now, this is where things start to get interesting... William Byron enters Martinsville Speedway (a racetrack he's won two NASCAR Cup Series events at) sitting 36 points below the cutline. Now, it's not a must-win situation technically, because either Kyle Larson or Christopher Bell could have a problem early and be overtaken by a good finish and great stage points for the No. 24. However, if the Hendrick Motorsports driver wants to return to the Championship 4 for a third year in a row, it has to be treated as a must-win. The only problem? The Fall event at Martinsville has been a bit of a struggle for the No. 24 team.
RELATED: William Byron Left in Dire Playoff Situation After Last-Lap Spin
6. #22 - Joey Logano (-38)
Joey Logano has just one NASCAR Cup Series victory at Martinsville Speedway (Fall 2018), but if the Team Penske driver is going to try and defend his championship title, Sunday might have to result in a second. Sitting 38 points below the cutline, it's not technically a must-win (just like William Byron), but a lot would have to go down for Logano to get into the Championship 4 just on his points position. However, be forewarned, the three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion seems to always (somehow) find a way.
7. #12 - Ryan Blaney (-47)
Sure, there's some ridiculously convoluted path where Ryan Blaney could make it into the Championship 4 based on his points position, but in this environment, you cannot count on a championship rival to falter. That's why the No. 12 Ford Mustang Dark Horse is essentially in a must-win situation, and man, if I had to be anybody in this situation heading into Martinsville, it would be the guy who has won the last two Fall events at the half-mile paperclip. Can Blaney make it three in a row and give Team Penske a shot at ANOTHER NASCAR Cup Series title?
8. #9 - Chase Elliott (-62)
If Chase Elliott doesn't win Sunday's XFINITY 500 at Martinsville Speedway, then he won't be advancing to the Championship 4 with a shot to win his second NASCAR Cup Series title. It's as simple as that: win or bust.
The XFINITY 500 will take place on Sunday, October 26 at 2:00 PM ET. Coverage of the event will be on NBC, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90.
Recommended Articles:
Joseph Srigley covers NASCAR for TobyChristie.com, Racing America, and OnSI, and is the owner of the #SrigleyStats brand. With a higher education in the subjects of business, mathematics, and data analytics, Joseph is able to fully understand the inner workings of the sport through multiple points of perspective.
Follow joe_srigley