Sabalenka and Pegula Upset as Top Seeds Falter in Wuhan

This week’s Wuhan Open began with some unexpected upsets, as top seed Aryna Sabalenka lost to American Ann Li and No. 2 seed Jessica Pegula lost to Jelena Ostapenko. The No. 8 seed Marta Kostyuk had already gone out earlier in the week to Maria Sakkari. Beyond just this tournament, these upsets also change the stakes for the year-end No. 1 race and qualification for the WTA Finals.

Aryna Sabalenka Falls to Ann Li

Ann Li, who is ranked No. 31 and entered Wuhan unseeded, defeated Aryna Sabalenka 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(5) in Wednesday’s Round of 32 matchup. Li finally converted her 10th match point after Sabalenka put up a valiant fight by saving nine. However, the No. 1 seed in Wuhan did appear to let the match slip away. Sabalenka won the first set and led 4-2 in the second before Li won seven of the next eight games. Overall, Li hit eight aces to Sabalenka's two, and Sabalenka made 44 unforced errors.

This was arguably the biggest win of Li’s career, taking down Wuhan’s top seed in her second victory over a top-10 opponent this season. However, Sabalenka still leads their head-to-head matchup 3-1. For Sabalenka, the loss marks a second straight early exit after her third-round loss in Beijing. It continues a drought for the Belarusian player, during which she hasn’t won a title in her last 10 tournaments.

The upset could have an impact on Sabalenka's pursuit of the year-end No. 1 ranking as well. Though she has already qualified for the WTA Finals, Sabalenka is still behind Rybakina in the race for year-end No. 1 (6,550 to 7,502), and Rybakina isn’t even playing in Wuhan. A deeper run would have chipped away at that deficit, but instead Sabalenka earned only 65 points for the loss. She now needs to outscore Rybakina by roughly 950 points over the rest of the season to claim the No. 1 spot.

Jessica Pegula Loses to Jeļena Ostapenko

On the same day as Sabalenka’s loss, No. 2 seed Jessica Pegula also suffered her own upset in Wuhan. It came at the hands of Jeļena Ostapenko, who beat Pegula 2-6, 7-6(7), 6-3 in the Round of 32. Ostapenko hit 46 winners (31 more than Pegula) and converted five of seven break points before closing out the match in the third set. This was Pegula’s first match since losing in the US Open semifinals, as she had skipped Singapore and Beijing because of the physical toll of her summer schedule.

Pegula has already qualified for the WTA Finals and is fourth in the Race with 5,825 points, so her season isn’t in danger. However, the rust was evident, as Pegula couldn’t get things together in time to overcome Ostapenko in her first match in over a month. She’s 50-13 with two titles this year, but has now played just one match since the US Open, and the WTA Finals in Indian Wells are quickly approaching.

A Wide Open Field in Wuhan

With Sabalenka, Pegula, and Kostyuk out, and with Rybakina, Gauff, Andreeva, and Noskova not in the draw, the field in Wuhan has lost most of its biggest names. Sabalenka was the only past Wuhan champion in the tournament this year, so the trophy will be going to a first-time winner.

The openness also helps the players chasing the last WTA Finals spot, particularly Karolína Muchová, who nearly edged Caty McNally in a third-set tiebreak in the second round. She leads the group of players on the edge of qualification with 4,615 points, and she controls her own fate more than the others. Meanwhile, Iga Swiatek beat Magdalena Frech 6-2, 6-1 but still trails by more than 700 points. American Iva Jovic also remains hopeful despite being more than 1,700 points back.

Wuhan’s champion collects 1,000 points, so every round the top seeds miss is an opportunity for these players on the verge of WTA Finals qualification.

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