Champions League permutations: How Chelsea's last-16 & play-off fate will be decided

Chelsea's Champions League fate will be sealed on Wednesday night following the conclusion of their fixture against Napoli.

Head coach Liam Rosenior will take his Chelsea side to Naples as they bid to qualify for the knockout stages without the need to go via the play-offs.

Both outcomes are still on the table for Chelsea, whose destiny is in their own hands after their 1-0 win against Pafos at Stamford Bridge last week.

Chelsea are currently positioned eighth - the final spot which books a place straight into the last-16.

Anywhere between 9th and 24th and Chelsea would enter the play-offs for the two-legged tie next month.

How does the seeding and draw work for the Champions League play-offs?

As noted by UEFA: 'The fixtures for the knockout phase play-offs are determined by means of a draw conducted in accordance with the following principles:

'a. The clubs are paired based on their positions at the end of the league phase to form four seeded pairs (clubs in positions 9 and 10, 11 and 12, 13 and 14, and 15 and 16) and four unseeded pairs (positions 17 and 18, 19 and 20, 21 and 22, and 23 and 24).

'b. The clubs in each seeded pair are drawn into the knockout phase bracket, against the clubs in each unseeded pair: clubs 9 or 10 against clubs 23 or 24, clubs 11 or 12 against clubs 21 or 22, clubs 13 or 14 against clubs 19 or 20, and clubs 15 or 16 against clubs 17 or 18.'

How will Chelsea's Champions League fate be decided?

Qualifying straight for the last-16

With Barcelona, Sporting CP, Man City, Atletico Madrid and Atalanta all also on 13 points, Chelsea can guarantee a spot in the top eight with a victory, provided they match or better the scores elsewhere to maintain their goal difference advantage.

PSG and Newcastle are both ahead of Chelsea on goal difference in sixth and seventh. However, as they play each other in the final matchday, a win over Napoli ensures Chelsea overtake at least one of them. This creates a buffer, potentially allowing Chelsea to qualify even if another side below them improves their goal difference.

If Chelsea draw, they will finish on 14 points and rely on results between PSG/Newcastle and Inter Milan/Borussia Dortmund, as well as Barcelona, Sporting CP, Man City, Atletico Madrid, Atalanta and Juventus, to go their way.

If Chelsea lose to Napoli, they remain on 13 points. Because their closest rivals face each other, the Blues would require a specific set of results - including a draw in the Inter/Dortmund game and losses for Barcelona, Man City and Juventus - to avoid being overtaken on points or goal difference.

Qualifying for the play-offs

Chelsea have already qualified for at least the play-offs, it is now just a case of their final position to which bracket they are paired with ahead of Friday's draw.

If Chelsea draw or lose, they likely miss out on a top-eight finish but remain a seeded team (9th–16th) for the play-off draw, giving them a home leg in the second leg. It is mathematically impossible for enough teams to overtake Chelsea to push them into the unseeded 17th–24th bracket due to the head-to-head between Dortmund and Inter.